college plays for 9/24 - 9/26.....

[AR182]

finally had a winning week which brings my record so far to 33-33.....

i made these plays either last night or earlier today...i will have some kind of writeups asap....

akron+17(120)....
maryland+3....
miami o+10(130)....
sd st.+17....
c.fla.+11(130)....
iowa+11(120)....
oregon st+1....


good luck....

 

[LDB]

GL THIS WEEK AR:toast:

 

[AR182]

thanks ld....appreciate it....

adding....

ark.+17(125)....

good luck....

 

[TWHIT]

congrats on the winning week...always look forward to your write ups. GL this week as well

 

[pel7]

really liking Ark myself.I wonder if the spread will rise or fall?

 

[AR182]

really liking Ark myself.I wonder if the spread will rise or fall?

pel....

it may go up or not but i got a number that i liked & took it...

last night some offshore books had 15.5 & some books in vegas had (& still have) bama favored by 15....i found a book that had 16 & bought it up to 17.....

thanks guys for the well wishes...

 

[TeeMo]

Congrats on the winning week. Look forward to reading your write ups as well. Keep up the winning trend brutha........

 

[AR182]

thanks teemo..appreciate it....


adding....

army+11(125)....
bc+3(120)....
tcu+3....
n.tex.+7....


here is a complete list of who i have taken so far this week....all plays are equal in amount....will have writeups asap....

akron+17(120)....i may buy off this...
maryland+3....
miami o+10(130)....
sd st.+17....
c.fla.+11(130)....
iowa+11(120)....
oregon st+1....
ark.+17(125)....
army+11(125)....
bc+3(120)....
tcu+3....
n.tex.+7....

good luck....

 

[Coach_K]

GL this week man!

Also on Akron, Miami OH and tailing you on Oregon State. Like Northwestern ML.

Best of luck, enjoy reading your plays.

 

[AR182]

adding...

minn.+3(120).....

both teams are 2-1 so far this year...but the first 3 games that minn has played were against syracuse, air force & california...while northwestern's 3 games were against towson, e. michigan & syracuse....the 1 common opponent was syracuse...minn. beat them 23-20 & gave up 257 total yds. to syr....last week nw lost to syr.37-34 & gave up 471 total yds......i realize that minn. caught syr. in the 1st game of the season where syr. was breaking in a new qb, but imo the 214 yds. difference is still a signicant difference....

in addition nw is banged up with 4 potential starters that missed the syr. game & their def. end is not 100%........

also over the last 3 seasons, northwestern is 1-8 ats after playing a non-conference game....


play against - all teams where the line is +3 to -3 (nw) - after going over the total by more than 21 points in their previous game, in sep't. games.......

since 1992 the ats record for this system is.....28-8.........77.8%.....


play on - road underdogs (minn) - off a home loss by 14 or more points, with 17 or more total starters returning.......

since 1992 the ats record for this system is.....51-21.........70.8% .......


good luck....

 

[spang]

This week will be the gut check for JD and the Zips. I really believe that this game will define the rest of their season. They need to face the reality of playing without Jac. for probably the rest of the season and get it together.Rodgers is much better than he played against IU. He just needs to go out there and play. I think that the pressure of getting his first start got to him last week. I would expect that the Zips will try to take some of the burden off of Rodgers by trying to establish a sound running attack. This is of some concern to me though, as the MSU Spartans did not have much luck on the ground vs. CMU after Arizona ran it very well on the Chipps.

I agree that this line is inflated, but I can not either bet the Zips or bet against them at this point. Just too many variables to consider for me.

I hope they cover for you if you stick with them.

 

[AR182]

hey spang....thanks for your thoughts on the akron game...still undecided about keeping it....

here is a writeup on the n. texas play that i previously posted....


n.texas+7.....

last year mid tenn. st beat n. tex. by the score of 52-13 & in 2007 they beat n. texas 48-28 & the average margin of victory by mts over nt over the last 3 years is by an average margin of 31ppg...so i wonder if they may overlook n. texas because this is defintely a sandwich game for mid. tenn st.......last week they beat a bcs school (maryland) & next week they play the conference champ troy.....

this year nt seems to be an improved team, especially on defense as they have held the 2 non-bcs schools they have faced to average of 271 ypg.... in addition nt's qb dodge, who was held out in last week's game vs bama will be ready for this conference game.....meanwhile mts may be without their back, turner because of a knee problem....

play on any single digit home dog (n.texas) off a road game if they allowed 40 or more points vs an opponent that scored 40 or more points against them last year........

since 1980 the ats record for this system is....60-22.......72.5%.......


good luck....

 

[AR182]

adding an off-the-wall play......

n. mexico-9 (120)....

both teams are going through major changes brought on by new head coaches......but imo nm has more depth & athleticism than nms & it was only 2 years ago that nm was 9-4....

nm is 0-3 but they played flat out better teams than they are.....tex.a+ m,tulsa, & air force.....
nms is 1-2 but they played teams that were weaker than nm's opponents...nms played idaho, 1-aa prairie a+m, & utep....last year utep & idaho allowed closed to 40 ppg & nms scored a combined total of just 18 points..........

play on - any team (new mexico) - with a turnover margin of -1 /game or worse on the season, after 2 consecutive games with a turnover margin of -2 or worse.......

over the last 5 seasons the ats record for this system is.....66-28.....70.2%......


here is a list of the plays i made to date....

akron+17(120)....i may buy off this...
maryland+3....
miami o+10(130)....
sd st.+17....
c.fla.+11(130)....
iowa+11(120)....
oregon st+1....
ark.+17(125)....
army+11(125)....
bc+3(120)....
tcu+3....
n.tex.+7....
minn.+3(120).....
new mexico-9(120)....


good luck....

 

[Irish]

AR
I like those TCU and Org st plays but the TERPS!!!!! Don't get me wrong but my play is based mostly on the QB being cleared if not, I am riding the rouge wave. Head to head there but as always best of luck to you.

Cheers
Irish

 

[AR182]

thanks irish....appreciate it...


adding....

georgia tech...ml.....

gt is coming off an nationally televised, embarrassing loss to miami & now will be playing #18 north carolina, who is 3-0 for the season.....

so far this season, unc has played the citadel, conn., & e. car.....while gt has played jacksonville st, clemson, & miami....

last year, in his 1st season at gt, paul johnson made the necessary adjustments after each loss (3 regular season losses) & won the following week.....they beat miss. st. 38-7, florida st. 31-28 & miami 41-23.....for this upcoming game, gt will have a few extra days to prepare....

in last week's game, miami was coming off a bye week so they had extra time to prep for gt's triple option....last year unc beat gt & allowed them to score just 7 points......but like miami last week, unc had a bye week before they played gt....& yet gt still ran for 326 yards on the ground (6.0 ypc) & had 423 yards of total offense.....unc had no bye week for this upcoming game.....

play on - home favorites vs. the money line (gt) - with 9 or more offensive starters returning, in the first month of the season......

over the last 5 seasons, the record for this system is.....69-9......88.5%.....


i also played marshall+4 (120).....

here is a list of the plays i made to date....

akron+17(120)....i may buy off this...
maryland+3....
miami o+10(130)....
sd st.+17....
c.fla.+11(130)....
iowa+11(120)....
oregon st+1....
ark.+17(125)....
army+11(125)....
bc+3(120)....
tcu+3....
n.tex.+7....
minn.+3(120).....
new mexico-9(120)....
marshall+4(120)....
georgia tech..ml....


good luck....

 

[AR182]

adding 2 more plays....

texas tech+1....

houston hasn't played a game since their upsetting big win against okla. st....so they must have been revelling in their greatness for the last 2 weeks.....

houston is 0-9 ats after 2 or more consecutive straight up wins over the last 3 seasons.....the average score was houston 30.9, opponent 37.8......

houston is 2-10 ats after scoring 31 points or more in 2 straight games over the last 3 seasons......the average score was houston 30.3, opponent 35.8.....


under 55(125) az st / georgia....

az st qb making his very first start on the road this year while georgia coming off a brutal 3 game span...

some trends...

az st is 8-0 under after a cover as a double digit favorite over the last 3 seasons......the average score was az st 27.9, opponent 15.5......

az st is 9-1 under after 1 or more consecutive wins against the spread over the last 3 seasons.....the average score was az st 28.5, opponent 17.8.......

georgia is 20-8 under after scoring 42 points or more last game since 1992.....the average score was georgia 24.7, opponent 18.6.....

georgia is 14-4 under after gaining 525 or more total yards in their previous game since 1992.....the average score was georgia 25.0, opponent 15.9......

here is a list of the plays i made to date....

akron+17(120)....i may buy off this...
maryland+3....
miami o+10(130)....
sd st.+17....
c.fla.+11(130)....
iowa+11(120)....
oregon st+1....
ark.+17(125)....
army+11(125)....
bc+3(120)....
tcu+3....
n.tex.+7....
minn.+3(120).....
new mexico-9(120)....
marshall+4(120)....
georgia tech..ml....
tex. tech+1....
under 55(125) az st / georgia....


good luck....

 

[WhatsHisNuts]

Best of luck AR.

 

[AR182]

thanks gary..appreciate it..

here is a small writeup on my iowa play...

iowa+11(120)....

1 of the reasons why i am playing iowa is because i am not so sure that penn st is as good as past years...they currently average 133.33 yards per game at 3.96 ypc against syracuse & 2 mac schools......last year they averaged 205.46 ypg &5.23 ypc over their whole schedule which included oregon st ( 40th in nation vs. rush ) , ohio state ( 18th in rush defense ) ,wisconsin ( 44th rush defense ), michigan ( 50th rush defense ) , & iowa(9th ranked rush defense)......imo this difference in production when factoring in the level of competition is huge....when these 2 teams played last season & psu had a very good running attack, they were very ineffective throwing the ball on iowa's 25th rated pass defense.....getting just 109yards through the air that day.....they return only 3 catches for 39 yards from that game.....

i don't see psu scoring many points against quality teams being as 1 dimensional as they have shown against lesser quality teams....on the other hand i don't see iowa scoring many points either...& imo there isn't much difference between these 2 teams....so i'll take the double digit points in what should be a low scoring game....

since 1992 penn st is 0-14 ats vs. incredible defensive teams who give up 12 or less points/game.....the average score was psu 17.9, opponent 28.9.......

good luck...

 

[spang]

http://www.ohio.com/news/break_news/60754807.html

 

[AR182]

thanks spang...i'll read that link first chance i get....

tonight i am playing....

under 54(125) miss / so. car....

i think this game will be lower than what the perception by the public think it will be...i also think it won't crack 50 in total points scored....

under is 4-0 in so. car. last 4 games as a home underdog....

under is 5-0 in miss. last 5 conference games....

under is 7-2 in so. car last 9 home games....

under is 6-2-1 in so. car. last 9 thursday. games....


play under - any team against the total (miss.) - in conference games, in the first month of the season, after closing out last season strong with 5 or more straight wins....

over the last 10 seasons the record for this system is....28-6....82.4%....


play under - any team against the total (so.car.) - in conference games, returning 5 or less offensive starters against opponent returning 8+ defensive starters-1rst month.....

over the last 10 seasons the record for this system is....25-6....80.6%....



good luck....