college plays for 9/3-9/7...

[Cie]

Al,

I get the feeling that Paulus being given the starting job is a ploy to bring some publicity to the program. There has been some mention of Cuse nationally on ESPN TV and radio, wheras there would have been zero coverage otherwise.

I would not play Cuse in this spot for any reason.

GL:weed:

 

[#cruncher]

Al,

I get the feeling that Paulus being given the starting job is a ploy to bring some publicity to the program. There has been some mention of Cuse nationally on ESPN TV and radio, wheras there would have been zero coverage otherwise.

I would not play Cuse in this spot for any reason.

GL:weed:

Ditto!

 

[AR182]

think you are right cie....that's one of the reasons why i played minny....

here is a write-up on my bama play....

bama-6(120).....

i went against my usual rule of thumb with this play...don't lay points with an inexperienced qb in the beginning of the year...& if the line gets any higher i may try for a middle...

bama is returning 4 from last year's offense, 2 are from the o-line & another is a great play maker at wide receiver, julio jones...their new starter at qb has played in spots over the last 2 years, so he is not a raw rookie...& i read that he has looked very good in spring practices...

there is no reason why bama's defense can't be as good as last year's team since they return 9 starters....

i also read that saban has had b2b monster recruiting years so bama is very deep....

vt is always a good team & this year won't be any different...they return 8 from last year's starting offense, including their qb (tyrod taylor)....the knock on taylor is that he is injury prone & can't beat a team by himself if the running attack is not there...which imo it won't be against bama...

on defense vt returns 7 from last year's defense & it is expected to be the usual very good....

i think bama wants to forget how they closed last season & put those 2 lossed behind them....

here is a system suggesting that....

play on - favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (bama) - in the first month of the season, after closing out last season with 2 or more straight losses against opponent after closing out last season strong with 4 or more wins in last 5 games.......

since 1992 the ats record for this system is......25-5......83.3%

the straight up record of the team this system pertains to is......29-3......

the average line posted in these games was.....team favored by 6.7

the average score in these games was....team 31.2, opponent 14.2....

the number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 21........65.6% of all games.......

over the last 10 seasons the ats record for this system is.....18-2......90%......


good luck....

 

[Cie]

Some excellent points on Bama/VT. I've read McElroy is a charismatic and heady guy and I've been told that his confidence is infectious. If the OL performs well early in the season, then I will not likely win my bama un9 season win play.

 

[AR182]

here is a write-up on my w. mich. play....

w. mich.+11.5...

as i previously posted mich, has a a revnger next week against notre dame, who beat them 35-17....i wonder which team mich. has focused on during the practices.....the team from the lowly mac or the team that humiliated them...

w. mich. is returning 7 starters from last year's offense, which includes 4 from the o-line...also retruning is their very good, strong armed, & quick release qb (tim hiller), who threw for 3725 yards & 36 tds last season...& their productive back (brandon west), who rushed for 1028 yds last season...

on defense, wmu returns 4 from last year's starters, including 2 from the d-line...i'll admit that there will be some growing pains on the d-fense this year because of the player losses.....& btw last year's def. gave up about 400 yds. per game last season...

mich. returns all 11 starters from last year's team...but don't know if that is good or bad because i heard they are still somewhat unsettled at qb... & the offense averaged a little under 300 total yds. per game last season & ranked 109th nationally last year...

on defense, um returns 5 from last year's starters, including 1 from the d-line...& last year's defense ranked 67th in total defense in the nation...

last year um was 2-10 ats for the season & 0-5 ats as a home favorite....

i think um still doesn't have the type of players it needs to run the coache's type of offense...so am willing to take the points with the team that has the better qb against the team that may still be finding itself & also maybe looking 1 week ahead...


good luck...

 

[AR182]

here is a write-up on my mid. tenn. st. play....


mid.tenn.st.+20(120)....

here is clemson's 1st 4 games this season.....

1st game is against mid. tenn. st.....5 days later they play geo. tech....followed up with games against boston college, tcu, & mayland....the obvious question is how serious will clemson take their lowly sun belt opponent & who have they prepared for during spring practices....it takes alot of prep time to be ready to defend gt's offense....

mts is returning 10 players from last year's starting offense, including 5 from the o-line, which was considered a weakness last year & is now considered a strength....they have a new qb (dasher) starting this year..dasher had a very good year for a freshman but was inconsistent....they have a productive back (tanner) returning..& they are loaded at wide receiver....they have 5 players returning who combined to catch 1888 passes last season....their offense has gotten a boost by adding tony franklin as the new oc....although franklin was fired last year as auburn's oc, he did have a lot of success as the oc at troy.....this year mts will look to speed up their offense where they play a fast break kind of offense....they intend to rotate players in & out to try to tire out the opposition's defense....

on defense, mts is returning 7 from last year's starters, including 2 from the d-line, which is supposed to be a strength this season as are their 2ndary....the linebacker position is very thin....

mts has also had a few other coaching changes..& in total the new coaching staff has 3 national titles, 72 bowl bowl rings & 204 years of experience....

although clemson lost last year's top qb, running back, & wide receiver, they are returning 7 from last year's starting offense, including 5 from the o-line.....their qb position is unsettled as is the wide receiving position....

on defense, clemson is returning 8 from last year's starters, including 2 from the d-line....their linebackers are young & unproven beyond maye & conner....

i'll take the 20 points in a game in which i think clemson may just do enough to win....


good luck....

 

[AR182]

i read on another forum that james stark, the star running back from buffalo got hurt & will miss the season....here is an article from the buffalo web site confirming this.....this is a tremendous blow for them.....


BUFFALO, NY ? University at Buffalo senior tailback James Starks will miss his final season after a labral tear was discovered in his shoulder. As a fifth-year senior, Starks will not have any eligibility remaining.
?The doctors did an MRI that revealed James had a labral tear that required surgery,? said head coach Turner Gill. ?He tried rehab and practices but it was too painful for him to play. Therefore he will have the surgery now and miss the season. It will be a 4-6 month recovery period. Doctors have told me that they anticipate he will make a complete recovery and I believe he will have an opportunity to play at the next level.

?On behalf of the staff and his teammates we want to thank James for all of his outstanding contributions to the University at Buffalo football program, the University and the Western New York community. He is scheduled to graduate in December, and of course, will remain a part of this program.?

Starks is the school?s all-time leading rusher with 3,140 yards and 34 rushing touchdowns. He has scored the most points (222) of any player in UB's history and ranks fifth in all-purpose yardage with 3,830 yards. Starks had been named to the pre-season watch list for the Doak Walker Memorial trophy, given to the nation's top running back.

?Injuries are, and will always be, a huge part of football,? said Gill, ?but this one is particularly painful because of what James has meant to this program and community. However, this is an incredible opportunity for a group of very talented running backs that we have to step up and help us achieve our goals this season.?

 

[freelancc]

love to read your write-ups/cut and pastes. you are a great contribution to Madjacks:SIB

 

[AR182]

love to read your write-ups/cut and pastes. you are a great contribution to Madjacks:SIB

lance my friend...don't get soft on me...it makes me nervous....:142smilie.....but thanks i do really appreciate it...

 

[AR182]

adding....

e. mich.-4(120).....

emu played at army last year & lost 17-13. both have new coaches...emu's coach was defensive coordinator at mich....& army's coach was head coach at cal-poly....

army is returning 3 starters from last year's offense, including 1 from the o-line....their qb, bowden started the last 9 games last season & their top 2 wide receivers from last season are also retturning.....last season army had the 119th ranked passing attack in the nation.....they are replacing their top rusher, mooney this season who rushed for about1,400 yards, 8 td's & 5.8 ypr last season....in addition army is learning a new offensive system.... on defense, army is returning 7starters from last year's defense, including 3 from the d-line, which ranked 84th in sacks & 90th in tackles for a loss.....& also is returning 2 of their top 5 tacklers....

emu is returning 8 from last year's offense, including 3 from the o-line......their qb,schmitt threw for over 2,600 yards last season....& also is returning their 4 top rushers as well as 8 of their top 9 leading receivers....last year emu ranked 25th in total offense.....on defense they are returning 8 from last year's starters, including 3 from the d-line....& because their new coach's strength is on defense, i expect improvement in this area eventhough it gave up 427 points last year....

in this matchup i don't think army has the tools to be able to keep up with emu's solid & experienced offense.....


good luck....

 

[AR182]

i have been debating back & forth for the past week whether to take the under in the lou. tech / aub game.....& when i saw a respected capper that i know play it.....i made a play on it also....

adding....

under 45(120) lou tech / auburn....

lou. tech is coming off their first bowl season in 7 years....& they return 9 starters from the offense, including all 5 on the o-line, their qb (jenkins) who went 6-2 as a starter & averaged 105 passing yds. per game with a 7-3 td-int ratio, & their back (porter) who could be the all time leading rusher in tech history....also returning is an electric receiver/ returner (livas) who averaged a little over 2000 all purpose yds. last year....

on defense, lou. tech is returning 7 starters from last years team, including all 4 on the d-line who helped their defense finish in 10th nationally in rush defense....their 2ndary is returning 2 from last year & is a weakness as they finished 113th nationally in pass defense.....

auburn has a new coach & a new oc to try to turn around the the program.....they return 7 from last year's offense, including 3 from the o-line....from what i can see it looks like they are undecided between last year's qb (burns) or another junior (caudle)....their receivers have underachieved for the past few years, but have 2 backs that are very good (tate & fannin)...

the au defense again should be dominating as they return 7 starters from last year, including 2 from the d-line....& although the linebacker position is thin, they could be potentially dominating & their 2ndary is also a strength....

lou. tech's philosophy is to ask their qb to manage the game & try to play keep away..while it is questionable whether auburn can take advantage of lou tech's weakness in the 2ndary......

play under - all teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 (auburn) - in the first week of the season, after closing out last season with 2 or more straight losses....

over the last 10 seasons the ats record is....43-15......74.1%......

lou tech is 8-1 under in the first half of the season over the last 3 seasons.....the average score was lou tech...17.5,opponent....26.1.......

lou tech is 8-1 under as a road underdog over the last 3 seasons.....the average score was lou tech...8.4, opponent.....31.2.....


good luck.....

 

[c20916]

the average score in these games was....team 31.2, opponent 14.2....
....

I hope this game falls close to the average, I took the over 38 today.

Also played UTEP -8 and Memphis +17

good luck this year AR

 

[AR182]

I hope this game falls close to the average, I took the over 38 today.

Also played UTEP -8 and Memphis +17

good luck this year AR

thanks c2....good luck to you also...

 

[AR182]

adding....

under 56(120) idaho/n. mex. st....

this is the 3rd year under the same coach for idaho...on offense they return 7 starters from last season, including the qb (who has completed less than 50% of his passes through his career) & 2 on the o-line....their strength is at the running back position & will most likely alternate using the same backs (jackson & mccarty) from last year...

on defense, idaho returns 8 starters from last year, including 2 from the d-line....last year the defense allowed a whopping 513 points & ranked 117th in the nation in scoring defense....some of the poor play by the defense last year can be attributed to massive injuries & by playing a lot of young players....there is no way but up for this defense & since the head coach leans to the defensive side of the ball.....there should be improvement....

here is a quote from the coach after completing spring practice....?we showed some ability to put pressure on the quarterback,? he said. ?our defensive run-stopping ability needs to improve, and it will as we get into fall camp, because we have a good base started here.?.....

new mex. st. has a new coach this year..he is the former defensive coordinator from both ucla & usc....& he will be changing the offensive philosophy from a spread pass oriented attack that had no use for running the ball to a standard pro-style attack that will rely mostly on the running game....imo this should take some time......they are returning 6 from last year's starting offense, including 3 from the o-line & their top 5 running backs also return...they are breaking in a new qb...

on defense, nms is returning 5 from last year's starters, with a completely new d-line....they have an experienced set of linebackers which should be their strength....

here is part of a quote from the nms coach after spring practice....."the passing game will develop in time to complement the ground game"......& here is a quote from the d-line coach..."the aggie defense lacks a great tradition, but the staff is determined to change that history as fast as possible by relying on walker's (head coach) expertise....

i expect both teams to rely on their running attack in this game & to step up their defensive intensity.....& i don't expect the total points to break 50 in this game....


good luck....

 

[Sun Tzu]

Syracuse made Paulus a captain. I am told by someone close to the program that quite a few players are pretty unhappy about it.

 

[AR182]

the following is a copy & paste of an article that i read on another forum...i am leaving the author's name off because he is a tout & i didn't feel like giving him free publicity....take this info fwiw...

Handicapping New College Football Coaches

(1) NEW HEAD COACHES ARE MONEYBURNERS

For the most part, new coaches are brought into college football programs that are in need of a transfusion. Much like a body that undergoes alterations during a lifestyle change of diet and exercise, it also takes a while before first year coaches turn a program around. In fact, all teams with 1st year head coaches are 1307-1445-45, or 47.4% ATS, since 1990.

The groundwork is laid in the first year, when new coaches install new playbooks and game plans. Consequently, these teams really struggle out of the gate. That's confirmed by the fact that, since 1990:

1st Year College Football Head Coaches in Game One are a 42.2% pointspread proposition, going 82-1112-6 ATS.

(2) NEW HEAD COACHES WITH LOUSY TEAMS ARE LOUSY IN SEASON OPENERS

A lousy team is often defined as winning four or fewer games the previous year. We agree with that statement because:

Four win (or less) teams, with a new 1st year head coach, are 34-59-5 ATS in their initial game scheduled. No less than fourteen teams open the season in this role, eleven this week. They include: Army, Eastern Michigan, Miami Ohio, New Mexico, New Mexico State, Purdue, San Diego State, Syracuse, Toledo, Utah State and Washington this week, along with Iowa State, Mississippi State and Wyoming next week.

(3) NEW HEAD COACHES WITH LOUSY TEAMS VS. GOOD TEAMS SPELL DISASTER

Pair a new coach / lousy team' against a good team' (one who won six or more games last year) in season openers and you have the makings of a massacre, as these pairings find new coach / lousy team' combinations at 5-49 SU and 13-36-2 ATS. There are six such pairings to open the 2009 season (the new coach/lousy team' listed first):

9/3 - Utah State vs. Utah. 9/5 - Miami Ohio vs. Kentucky, Syracuse vs. Minnesota and Washington vs. LSU. 9/12 - Iowa State vs. Iowa and Wyoming vs. Texas.


good luck....

 

[AR182]

adding....

under 57(120) troy / bg....

this line opened at 58.5 & it now has dropped to 56/56.5.....

troy has 8 coming back from last year's starting offense, including 3 from the o-line (lost their starting tackles) & a lot of their skilled players including the qb.....& although they run the spread offense, they are well balanced...they scored an average of 32 points per game....

their defense is returning 5 starters from last year, including 2 from the d-line...the replacements are considered just as good or better than the players they are replacing.....they allowed an average of 21 points per game...

troy has a big game vs. florida up next...

bowling green has a new coach & a new offensive philosophy....where before they ran an empty backfield type of spread offense, now under this new coach they will feature a power back with a tight-end...so expect to see a lot more running than what they previously did....it will also take time before they master the new offense eventhough they have a veteran qb....in total bg is returning 7 from last year's offense, including 3 from the o-line....last year the offense averaged 28 ppg....

the defense is returning 4 from last year's starters, including 2 talented safeties & a pretty good corner & 1 from the d-line which should be the weakness on defense because although the other defensive players didn't start, they did contribute last year to the def. that allowed an average of 23 ppg....

bg has a game with missouri up next...

this is not the same bowling green team that we are used to seeing....i expect them to play more ball control & with their inexpereince on the d-line, i also expect troy to take advantage of that....i think this game doesn't break 50 total points...

good luck....

 

[ajoytoy]

always enjoy reading your posts Al...continued success this season sir

 

[AR182]

adding....

under 63 rice / uab....

rice loses 7 starters from last year's offense & that is a loss of 97% of the team?s passing yardage, 93 % of its rushing yardage & 64% of its receiving yardage....& among those who left the program was their c-usa mvp qb, chase clement who passed for a little over 4000 yds. & threw 44 tds....

on defense rice is returning 8 starters, including 3 from the d-line....last year the defense gave up 10ppg less than they did in 2007......the coaching staff is hoping for a continued improvement this year, especially now with the offense being very new....

uab is returning all 11 starters from last year...but
that offense averaged just over 366 yards & scored shy of 23 ppg....against c-usa defenses, uab was more effective running (169 ypg) than passing (197 ypg).....

on defense uab in returning 7 from last year, including all 4 from the d-line....the d-fense showed dramatic improvement at the end of last year & the coaching staff is hoping for the d-fense to pick right up this year where they left off from last year's performance......

a system supporting this play....

play under - any team against the total (rice) - in conference games, in the 1st month of the season, after closing out last season strong with 5 or more straight wins......

over the last 10 seasons the system's ats record is.....25-4........86.2%.....

the average total posted in these games was....49.7....the average score in these games was...... team 25.4, opponent 16.3....total points scored.....41.7......the number of games in which this system covered the total by 7 or more points was 17......58.6% of all games.......

good luck....

 

[AR182]

i decided to get off the memphis play because i just discovered a few systems that favor miss & feel uncomfortable staying on memphis.......

so my play in this game looks like this...

memphis+18 (115)
miss.-14 (150)....

good luck...