college plays for 9/30-10/3....

[AR182]

went 12-9 last week to bring my record for the season to 45-42....

played these 2 already....will have writeups later in the week....

mich. st..p....
ark....p....


good luck....

 

[AR182]

adding....

wisc.+4(125)....

the line is 3 & i bought a point to 4....

play on - road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (wisc.) - after 3 consecutive games where they forced 3 or more turnovers....

over the last 10 seasons the system's record is....28-6....82.4%....

over the last 3 seasons the system's record is....6-0....100%....


good luck....

 

[rrc]

Al, regarding the Wisky game...

Al, regarding the Wisky game...

One of the starting def tackles for Minn was suspended Monday, a pretty significant contributor...had 11 tackles, 3 tackles for loss, a sack, a forced fumble and 2 fumble recoveries.

While Wisc doesn't have the most dynamic offense the're fairly balanced and this guy being out will only help matters.

Originally I wasn't too thrilled with their chances, however they're producing turnovers.

Tolzien has provided steady qb play and Clay has run well.

Looking back the schedule which was thought to be so so (excluding Wofford) has been proven to be solid. ( N IL knocked off Ok St...Fresno has played well against some top teams...and Mich St is Pick 'em this week vs Mich)

If the Badgers can contain Decker and Tolzien has a solid game I think they stand a good chance.

I think the defense needs to play a complete 60 minutes for them to escape with the W.

gl

 

[Cie]

I leaned to Minny off the gun. I see Tolzien has played well, but the question is how will he, and his inexperienced OL, play in their 1st roadie? The suspension of the Minn DE could be big, as disruptive play up front often presents problems for inexperienced QBs.

I will likely add both Mich St and Arky.


GL this week

 

[AR182]

thanks for your comments rrc & cie....i think wisc. wins this su but am too chicken to play the moneyline....

a few other other games that i have played....

marshall+3(120)....
wash+14....
ball st+7....


good luck....

 

[Irish]

AR
Best of luck this week... :shrug: No Tulsa.. Already up to 15!

Cheers
Irish

 

[hawkeye]

Marshall has been a surprise team this year.

 

[LDB]

gl this week ar

 

[Morris]

NC St.......:shrug:

 

[AR182]

thanks guys...appreciate the posts....

hawk....i like this marshall team....like to see them make it to a bowl game....

morris....i'm looking into nc st because wake is a system bet to go against....

i just did a tally of my total bets so far in college & am amazed to find that i am 17-7 so far....

here are 3 total plays for this week...

under 48(120) af / navy....
under 46(120) n. mex. st. / sd st...
under 46(120) ucla / stanford....


good luck....

 

[AR182]

here's what i have played so far....hope to have comments on some of the plays by tomorrow....

mich. st..p....
ark....p....
wisc.+4(125)....
marshall+3(120)....
wash+14....
ball st+7....
col. st-3....may buy back....
w. mich+7....
middle....okla-6(120) / miami+8(120)....
under 48(120) af / navy....
under 46(120) n. mex. st. / sd st...
under 46(120) ucla / stanford....
fla. atl.-3(120)....
kentucky+17....
baylor-20(130)....
under 54 pitt / louisville....


good luck....

 

[tulah]

GL this week Ar:mj06:

 

[AR182]

baylor-20(130)....

baylor's star qb robert griffin is out for the year....his replacement is blake szymanski & he threw for 2800 yds. & 22 tds in 2007....while he is not as dynamic as griffin, blake has enough experience to put points on the board against an injury depleted kent st team....with kent st rb, jarvis out for the year & various graduations, 78% of last year's tds are gone for ksu....

with oklahoma up next, this is an important game for baylor's bowl hopes....on the other hand this is a mac sandwich for ksu, & i look for them to try to get out of this game with as few injuries as possible & get ready for their conference games....

play against - road underdogs of 21.5 to 31 points (ksu) - with an opportunistic defense - forcing 2.5 or more turnovers/game, after a game with a turnover margin of +2 or better....

since 1992 the ats record for this system is....23-3....88.5%....

the average line posted in these games was....team favored by 25.2....the average score in these games was: team 44, opponent 10.3....

over the last 3 seasons the system's record is....3-0....


ark..p....

with games against auburn, fla., & miss. upcoming, this is an important game for ark....a&m hasn't beaten a decent team yet under mike sherman....last year's wins came against army,new mex.,iowa st, & colorado....this year's wins were against new mex. again, utah st, & uab....not one of these teams made it to a bowl game....in the 8other games last year, a&m lost 45-22 on average....

here is an article that talks about ark's desire to perform well against a&m....

http://www.nwaonline.net/articles/20...09fbcnotes.txt


good luck....

 

[blaster]

AR,
LOVE THE BAYLOR PLAY. LIKE THE FACT THAT KENT WON LAST WEEK. BUT WHEN YOU LOOK BEYOND THE FINAL SCORE, THEY AGAIN WERE TOTALLY DOMINATED BY 300YARDS. I BELIEVE THE BEARS HAVE THIS ONE COVERED BY THE HALF.
BUT THE WAY THINGS HAVE FELL FOR ME SO FAR THIS YEAR, I JUST HOPE I DID NOT JINX US.:sadwave:

GL, BLAST

 

[AR182]

AR,
LOVE THE BAYLOR PLAY. LIKE THE FACT THAT KENT WON LAST WEEK. BUT WHEN YOU LOOK BEYOND THE FINAL SCORE, THEY AGAIN WERE TOTALLY DOMINATED BY 300YARDS. I BELIEVE THE BEARS HAVE THIS ONE COVERED BY THE HALF.
BUT THE WAY THINGS HAVE FELL FOR ME SO FAR THIS YEAR, I JUST HOPE I DID NOT JINX US.:sadwave:

GL, BLAST

blaster my friend....don't worry about jinxing any play....you are a solid capper & things will turn around for you shortly....

good luck....

 

[spang]

Don't know where you come up with all of these obscure trends, but I like it.

Good luck Al !

 

[AR182]

adding....

nw+8(120)....

this may be a sucker bet because i just don't see why purdue is a td favorite over nw....purdue has a very sloppy offense, averaging 3 turnovers a game so far this year....& the defense is allowing an average of 30 ppg & 421 ypg & rank # 100 in rush defense in the nation....allowing 178 ypg & 4.4 ypc on the ground so far this season....nw's qb, kafka is the big 10 passing leader so far this season & is completing 72% of his passes....

purdue is 7-14-1 ats against a conference opponent after playing notre dame, including 1-7 ats if the opponent is off a loss....nw is 14-2 ats away vs. an opponent off b2b losses....also bowlers from the previous year, off 3 straight ats losses all as favorites are 14-4 ats if they lost their last game by 10 points or more....


ncst+1....

both teams have very good qbs....wake's qb skinner is completing 69% of his passes with a 8/5 td/int ratio....ncst's qb, wilson is completing 64% of his passes with a 12/0 td/int ratio....in fact dating back to last seson, wilson has thrown 364 passes without an int....in addition, wake has lost their de, wilbur to injury due to a broken leg....

wake is coming off a heartbreaking ot loss to bc....ot losers at home in conference play the next game are 35-61-3 ats (36%)....in addition nc st's coach, obrien is 8-5 su & 17-4-2 ats in games off a su dog win, including 10-2 su & 10-0-2 ats if off b2b2 wins....

hereis a list of my plays so far this week....

mich. st..p....
ark....p....
wisc.+4(125)....
marshall+3(120)....
wash+14....
ball st+7....
col. st-3....may buy back....
w. mich+7....
middle....okla-6(120) / miami+8(120)....
under 48(120) af / navy....
under 46(120) n. mex. st. / sd st...
under 46(120) ucla / stanford....
fla. atl.-3(120)....
kentucky+17....
baylor-20(130)....
under 54 pitt / louisville....
nw+8(120)....
ncst+1....


good luck....

 

[AR182]

Don't know where you come up with all of these obscure trends, but I like it.

Good luck Al !

:mj07: various newsletters have all of this info....

thanks spang....

 

[rrc]

Watched every minute of the ND/PUR game last week.

Have never seen a more deflated team and atmosphere at the end of a heart-breaking loss.

NU coach Fitzgerald has been really on his team about their poor tackling which he said WILL get corrected.

Always a chance for the backdoor with Kafka (NU qb).

I think NU is even worth a peanut on the moneyline.

GL

 

[AR182]

writeups on some of the games that i already played....

marshall+3....

this is ec's 3rd road game in 4 weeks & is 0-5 ats as an away favorite & was 1-4 on the road in cusa play last season, being outgained 315-285 yds....also the home team is 7-1 su in this series....marshall is 8-2 ats as home dogs against .500 oppoents or better....

here is an obscure trend....home dogs off a su road dog win, preceded by a su home dog win, are 15-6 ats, including 11-1 ats before game 11 of the season....


kentucky+17....

since 1990 dd bowling home dogs off a home loss of 7 or more points are 13-5 ats....

play against - a road team (bama) - with an incredible offense - averaging 6.4 or more yards/play, after outgaining opp by 100 or more total yards in 3 consecutive games.....

over the last 5 seasons the ats record for this system is....49-21....70%....


fla.atl.-3(120)....

when i first saw this line i wondered how a team from a high altitude would be able to cope in the hot,humidity, & sun of fla....this type of setting is pretty foreign to a team like wyoming....wyoming is coming off a an upset win over unlv & is in a middle of a mwc sandwich....while fla. atl. is home for the 2nd consecutive week & is coming off a home loss....

wyoming is 2-13 ats in their last 15 away games....

play on any home team (fla atl.) off b2b losses, the last at home,if they played in a bowl game last season vs. a sub-.700on-conference opponent....

since 1983 the ats record for this system is....25-5....83%....


mich.st...p....

mich.st. is is 9-2 ats after allowing 38 or more points, including 7-0 ats against opponent off a win....

mich. is 1-10 ats in road openers, including 1-4 ats before playing iowa....


good luck....