college plays for week #14....

A

AR182

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113-83...went 7-5 last week...

i wanted to post this play now in case the lines starting moving against it...

g.t.+9(120)...

i'll have more of a writeup later in the week.....


good luck
 
A

AR182

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adding a play for tonight....

w. mich.+11...

i think this is a good spot for w. mich., who is coming off a bye while bsu played a very tough game last week against c. mich.

w. mich. has a very good offense that imo could keep pace with the bsu offense....the w. mich.,qb,hiller has thrown for 300 or more yards in 7 of his last 11 games...& for the year has completed 67.8 % of his passes....& while they do not have a great rushing attack & use their backs more as receivers, they do rush for an average of about 120 yds per game at 4.2 ypc...for the season wm is 9-2 (including a win over illinois), including 6-1 in the mac.....

eventhough bsu has dominated the mac this season & is 11-0 su for the year, they still need to win tonight to be in the mac championship...& will be under pressure to finish the season undefeated.....i think w. mich. has a defense (allows an average of 21.9 ppg on the season...20.3 ppg in conference play.....& 14.7 ppg over the last 3 games) good enough to slow down the bsu offense....

i'll take the points with this live dog & against the team that will be under tremendous amount of pressure to finish undefeated.....


good luck
 
A

AR182

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g.t+9 (120)....

i think georgia has been disappointed in the way their season has turned out. there were a lot of people in the preseason magazines who were predicting them to play for the national championship, but they won't....& i think their problem all season has been the ineffectiveness of their defense...georgia's rush defense ranks 15th in the nation but i think that is a little misleading because it includes games against ga southern, s. carolina, central michigan & arizona state.....these team's rush offenses rank 78th, 108th, 107th & a fca team (ga southern).....but they have allowed better rushing teams like bama to rush for 129 yds, lsu for 188 yds, fla. for 185 yards, & kentucky for 226 yds.....thats giving up an avg of 180 ypg on the ground in these 4 games......so i think gt, who averages 271 rushing yards per game at 5.5 ypc, will be able to have a good day against the georgia run defense....

of gt's 3 losses, only 1 has been by more than 8 points....& that was because of 3 costly turnovers to n. carolina...their other losses were by 7 & 3 points....

also paul johnson, the gt coach is 10-0 ats in road games after gaining 475 or more total yards in their previous game in all games he has coached since 1992....


good luck
 
A

AR182

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adding....

toledo +3 (120)......

a profitable play over the years has been betting against an over-time loser in their next game.....as bowling green was knocked out of the postseason in tough fashion last week as they blew a 21-0 lead & the mac east crown by losing to buffalo in ot....

i am not so sure that bg should be a 3 point favorite on the road over toledo.....because if you look at conference play, bg holds a +.1 yds per play advantage over their opponents...while toledo, on the other hand holds a .9 yds. per play advantage...& toldeo plays in the much tougher mac west....in addition toledo holds a + 1.1 advantage in net yards per rush against that tougher conference schedule....

also the series home team between these 2 teams has covered 8 in the last 9 times they have played....& toledo is 8-2 ats in their last 10 times as home dog....

play against away favorites off a su loss as a favorite where they allowed at least 20 pts are 47-83-3 (36%) ats in conference games versus an opponent off a SU win.....play against bowling green....

with this being the toledo coaches final home game...i think toldeo will outplay the deflated bg team who is now out of the post season...


good luck
 
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A

AR182

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thanks guys...

adding....

cin.-21(130).....

got cin-22 but bought a point to get it down to 21 to make me more comfortable with the play....but don't think that i will need it as cin. needs a win here to clinch the big east title & a spot in a bcs bowl....while i think syracuse will be flat after upsetting nd last week....& because of that upset i think cin. will be focused for this game...

cin. has been winning lately by combining a suffocating run defense with an efficient offense....& their run defense, which allows 79 rushing yds. per game at home...at 2.6 ypc, should stifle the syracuse offense that relies on the run for most of their offense because their passing attack ranks in the bottom 5 nationwide in passing offense....

cin. was a 20+ favorite twice last year & covered both times...& are 10-4 in home finales...

also since 1980 teams that upset nd are 11-25-3 ats (30.5%) in their next game....

this is a best bet for me as i smell a blowout....



good luck
 
A

AR182

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thanks guys....

adding.....

n.carolina-7(120).....

i am not crazy about laying a td on the road but i think nc, coming off 2 embarrassing losses, will come to play saturday against their rival & try to separate themselvs from the jumbled mess in the acc to get a better bowl game....

duke is fighting numerous injuries & last week played without their starting qb & top rusher...& both are questionable for this game....but even if they both play i think duke has hit a wall for the season & their lack of depth has caught up with them...

here are a few trends favoring n. carolina....

play on - a road team (n.carolina) - off a blowout loss by 21 points or more to a conference rival, with a winning record on the season playing a losing team.

over thae last 10 seasons the ats record is.............31-6........83.8%

over the last 3 seasons the ats record is.................11-0........100%

over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is.....14-1.........93%



college football teams off at least one consecutive road game that have scored less than 10 pts in consecutive games are 45-90-4 (33%) ats since 1980 if today's opponent has a better than .200 win percentage & our play against team is not getting +10 or more pts."

duke is off consecutive road games, and scored 7 and 3 pts respectively in those two games.....

notes:

(1) if off consecutive road games, the record is 21-43-1 ats since 1980.
(2) if home for this game, the record is 33-67-2 ats since 1980.
(3) if both (1) and (2) apply, the record is 18-36-1 ats.

now, if the opponent has a win percentage of .500 or better, the record when factoring in # (3) above is 4-20 (16%) since 1982......nc is 5-5 for a .500 record.......play against duke....


good luck
 
T

Toledo Prophet

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Good Luck AR! Hope you had an awesome Thanksgiving!!

I really like GT as well tomorrow. Just have not posted it yet......but, I will always be on a PJ team on the road....this series has been close in recent years, I think they may even snare the upset.

Awesome breakdown on UGA's rush D vs GT rush O.....i will be blantantly plagarizing in my post on tomorrow's games!! :mj07:

On the Rockets as well today....so good luck to us!! :toast:
 
A

AR182

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thanks guys....

it seems like everybody on the internet is playing georgia tech which doesn't sit well with me...so i decided to get greedy & try for a middle in the game....

my play now looks like this.....

gt+9(120)
georgia-6(130)


good luck
 
G

Goose

is cooked
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Oct 24, 2000
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Just as a sidenote....because of West Virginia's loss to Pitt yesterday, Cincinnati clinched the BCS game REGARDLESS to the outcome of today's game against Syracuse. Not sure if that affects your play on the Bearcats or not, but just wanted to make you aware...

Good Luck today.
 
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