college plays for week #3....

AR182

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adding a few games....


clemson-18 (120)....

looking for clemson to rebound in a big way from the embarrassing lost to bama a few weeks ago....

so far this year ncst.achieved 10 first downs in their first game & 11 first downs in their last game...& is averaging 2.3 ypc or reached 100 total rushing yards in their 2 games....& have been outscored 109-18 in its last 3 lined games....clemson is supposed to be a very well balanced offensive team (rushed for 809 yards combined in their last 3 meetings with ncst) & have one of the top defenses in the country.....they better show it on sat. or there will be a bowden watch.....& i don't mean dad...

a system that supports this play...

play on - home favorites of 10.5 to 21 points (clemson) - off a home blowout win by 28 points or more, with 4+ more total starters returning than opponent.

since 1992 the ats record is........28-7.......80%



conn.-10(120).....

since i had temple last week i watched the game between conn & temple & besides feeling fortunate that i won the game, i came away being impressed with how blalanced conn. is on offense & thought that their defense was pretty good also....& good enough to adequately shut down a very vanilla virginai offense....i also read that virginia'a starting qb and ONLY experienced qb on the team will not make the trip to conn..... & that they will have to play a qb that has NO experience at all playing in ncaa football.....but that doesn't matter to me because i liked conn. even if that qb played.....& btw va last week beat 1aa richmond 16-0...but were ahead only 3-0 after 3 quarters....conn. should control this game throughout....

also since conn.entered the big leagues they are 5-0 ats in the first of b2b home games.....


vandy-7.....

i bought this line this morning but for some reason i forgot to post it...i saw it's now up to 8.

i know some respected cappers that are on rice...but i have to take the team from the bcs schoolover the team from the non-bcs school.

vandy comes into this game with a little extra time to prepare because they played & beat so. carolina last thursday...last week rice got lucky & scored 21 points in the final minutes of the game to beat memphis.

in their 2 games so far this year, vandy has shown a pretty good ground attack & their qb has also looked good throwing the ball over 2 good defenses & now should do very well against last year's #102 pass defense that is yielding an average of 350 ypg in rice's 2 games this year....we know that rice has a good qb...but vandy returns 6 players from last year's defense that allowed just 296 ypg at home last year.

a system....

play on - home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (vandy) - off an upset win as a home underdog.

since 1992 the ats record is.......46-18.......71.9%



good luck
 

AR182

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adding....

az. st.-23.....

i know asu has georgia next week.

i think asu is on a mission to challenge usc for the pac 10 crown. they have a very explosive offense led by their qb carpenter who has completed 77% of his passes & has thrown for over 700 yards in asu 2 games so far this year....& believe it or not their defense has held 12 of their last 15 opponents to 20 points or less....while unlv allowed utah to score 28 points in the 2nd half last week.

some trends...

under this coach unlv is 3-11 ats as a road dog....

asu's coach erickson is 18-4 ats as a coach as a home favorite...

a system....

play against - any team (unlv) - off a road loss against a conference rival, in the first month of the season, after closing out last season with 2 or more straight losses.

the ats record since 1992 is......48-20.........70.6%


good luck
 

AR182

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i am hearing too many conflicting info about the n. mex. qb concering a neck injury...so i think it's best to buy the bet back...& who knows i may hit a middle (or a side in this case) like i did in last weeks game between utah & unlv.....so my play for this game looks like this....

n. mex1+11
az.-10(120)


good luck
 

wareagle

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ar, on clemson myself but seeing the injuries stack up for the tigers worries me. i've read they are starting 3 freshman on the off and def lines this weekend:shrug:

edit:

also not seeing anything about an injury to new mex's qb. this site has been spot on with injuries as well

edit:admin
please
no links to pay service sites on the forum
 
Last edited:

AR182

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ar, on clemson myself but seeing the injuries stack up for the tigers worries me. i've read they are starting 3 freshman on the off and def lines this weekend:shrug:

edit:

also not seeing anything about an injury to new mex's qb. this site has been spot on with injuries as well
'


edit:admin
please
no links to pay service sites on the forum.

wareagle...

i know the qb injury is not listed but i read from people who watch n mex. football that the qb doesn't seem right...& that he sometimes has trouble getting the snap from center without fumbling the ball....but i don't know how true this info is...so i'll just pay the vig & go to a different game....

as far as clemson goes....they have to start living up to their rep...& if they have pride they should try to erase that bama game..& since ncst is a conference game...i think they willdo well tomorrow....or bowden will start feeling more heat.
 

freelancc

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when your done listening to Better Midler's greatest hits.. be sure to check out your Baylor play.. it may be cancelled..:0corn
 

AR182

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when your done listening to Better Midler's greatest hits.. be sure to check out your Baylor play.. it may be cancelled..:0corn

:mj07: :mj07:

right now i'm listening to 'the wind beneath my armpits" or something like that...:142smilie

but lance my friend if you would have read my thread more carefully you would have noticed that i addressed the baylor game....
 

AR182

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thanks ba...


i bumped my marshall play to a 6*......so now it looks like this...

2*marshall-3
4*marshall-3.5(120)...

good luck
 

AR182

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adding....

over 49 wisc / fresno st.....

i haven't hit an over since the hoover administration...but i thought that i would try my luck again....& i see this as a last possession type of game.

fresno has said that this is a very biggame for their school so i expect hill to pull out all stops & use razzle-dazzle plays to try to catch wisc. off balance...& imo this type of play calling leads to all kind of results...scores & turnovers.....i also read that wisc. has allowed 31,38,38, & 34 points in their last 4 road games....

a system that supports this play....

play over - all teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 (fresno st) - off a road win, first month of the season, after closing out last season strong with 4 or more wins in last 5 games.

the ats recordsince 1992 is..........28-5........84.8%

the average total posted in these games was......46

the average score in these games was: team 33.1, opponent 22.4 (total points scored = 55.5)

the number of games in which this system covered the total by 7 or more points was 21 (63.6% of all games.)

the situation's record this season is: (1-0).



good luck...
 

trolln4walii

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Hope you have another great week AR. With you on Vandy and ArkSt and really happy to see your increased confidence in Marshall. I like alot of your big favorites, just not brave enough to lay that many points :SIB
 

AR182

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thanks guys....

i just read that there is a very good chance that there will be heavy rain at illinois tomorrow...& because of that i don't feel comfortable laying 24 points.....so i bought it back...this is what the play looks like now....

ill-24(120)
laf+27(135)

good luck
 
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