college plays for week #4....

A

AR182

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went 8-6 last week but wound up losing money because my best bet on marshall forgot to show up in the 2nd half.....

san jose st+10(120)...

i wanted to post this play asap because i noticed that the line at some places is 9.

san jose is 2-1 on the season with wins over uc davis and sdst.....but its their loss at neb.where they outgained the huskers 353-315 yards & held them to 99 yards on the ground that has impressed me....overall san jose is the 10th ranked rushing defense in the country allowing 55 ypg on the ground.....& their total defense is ranked 19th.....their offense is nothing fancy, but gets the job done.

on the other side off the ball stanford is averaging 111 passing ypg & 131 rushing ypg.....& is ranked 116th in total offense in the country.......on defense, stanford is ranked 107th total defense...... allowing 28,31 and 41 so far this season.

i just don't see how stanford can spot san jose 10 points in this match.

a few trends....

sjst is 9-1 ats when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 3 seasons......

sjst is 26-10 ats vs. bad defensive teams who give up 31 or more points/game since 1992......

sjst is 17-6 ats vs poor offensive teams - averaging <=4.5 yards/play since 1992.....

stanford is 1-10 ats in sep't. games over the last 3 seasons.....

stanford is 1-9 ats in home games after 2 consecutive games where they committed 3 or more turnovers since 1992.....


good luck
 
B

blaster

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AR,
GREAT MINDS THINK A LIKE!!!:mj07:
CHECK MY 1ST PLAY THIS WEEK.

GOOD LUCK TO US, BLASTER
 
F

freelancc

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you mustn't forget to email your plays to your close friends (via email) before you release them. San Jose is at + 9 already...:mj16:
 
A

AR182

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freelancc said:
you mustn't forget to email your plays to your close friends (via email) before you release them. San Jose is at + 9 already...:mj16:
Click to expand...

lance....

i don't feel comfortable enough with my capping abilities to advise people what to bet....

and btw last night betjamaica, bookmaker & betonline all had 9.5 on the game....olympic & a few places in vegas had 9....
 
A

AR182

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big east vs non-conference teams...

big east vs non-conference teams...

here is something people may find useful....

after 3 weeks the big east is 10-9 in non-conference games.....but 1-14 ats....
 
A

AR182

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freelancc said:
Harrah's and Golden Nugget have the game at
+ 8 1/2 now... so obviously the big boy's have their eyes on you..:mj07:
Click to expand...


yeah i'm sure....:mj07:

i wouldn't be surprised if san jose wins the game su....but anything over a td is a good play imo...

btw lance you should get an offshore account...
 
A

AR182

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adding....

arizona...ml.....

both arizona & ucla had horrendous losses last week, with ucla getting destroyed by byu & az.(turnovers did az in) getting upset by n. mex....i think az has the quick type of passing attack that could neutralize the quick ucla defense...also ucla had 9 offensive players listed on their initial injury report after last week's game....

here is something that i found interesting concerning teams entering their 4th game of the season after suffering their first loss....teams who gave up 36 or more points in their loss...but allow 25 or fewer ppg on the season & are playing away are.....24-5-1 ats...82.7%....play arizona..

since i played the moneyline in this game because i am not crazy about laying points on the road......here are moneyline systems supporting this play....

play on - road favorites vs. the money line (arizona) - dominant team (outgain opp. by 100+ ypg) against a terrible team (outgained by 100+ ypg).

over the last 10 seasons the record is.....34-3.......91.9%


play on - road favorites vs. the money line (arizona) - dominant team (outgain opp. by 100+ ypg) against a terrible team (outgained by 100+ ypg), in conference games.

over the last 10 seasons the record is......26-2.......92.9%


good luck
 
A

AR182

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adding....

mich. st.-8(120)....

true nd beat mich. last week but they were aided by 6 mich turnovers & mich is in the first year of rebuilding & alot of players on their offense were recruited by carr to fit a different offensive system......so imo there is nothing to be impressed about nd's win...i also think nd's offense is still mediocre & claussen is unimpressive still at qb...he is a turnover waiting to happen which is the way i think msu will defend nd's offense....clog the running lanes & let claussen beat them.....on defense nd allowed mich. to run for about 4 yards a carry...so i think ringer can do some damage on the nd defense....& then when nd's defense moves up to stop the run, i think the mich. st qb will be able to go over the top for long gains...

a system supporting this play....

play on - home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (msu) - off a home win by 17 points or more, in the first half of the season.

over the last 5 seasons the ats record is.....40-12..........76.9%
 
Irish

Irish

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Good luck this weekend, the record is looking good partner. Keep it going.

Cheers
Irish
 
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