tp...i can find trends for almost every side on the board...but to me it's either the dog or no play for me....
college plays for week #4....
- Thread starter AR182
- Start date
tp...i can find trends for almost every side on the board...but to me it's either the dog or no play for me....
thanks big ray....appreciate it....
adding....
troy+22(120)...
this is a situational play......osu must be devastated to lose big again in a marquee game.....& with league play starting next week, i wonder how focused osu will be against this small conference team...but if osu looks past troy, this is another dog i think that can win su..troy has proven over the years that when it comes to playing the big boys on the road, they won't back down......they covered against georgia, arkansas, georgia tech, fla. st over the last 2 years on the road.....also troy is 7-1 ats in the first of b2b games...
here is an angle that is similar to the arizona angle that i previously posted....
since 1980 teams that are coming off their first loss & are playing their 4th game at home are 69-91-1 (43%) ats....teams that qualify for this angle are.....ark. st., arizona st., geo. tech, & ohio st....
good luck
adding....
troy+22(120)...
this is a situational play......osu must be devastated to lose big again in a marquee game.....& with league play starting next week, i wonder how focused osu will be against this small conference team...but if osu looks past troy, this is another dog i think that can win su..troy has proven over the years that when it comes to playing the big boys on the road, they won't back down......they covered against georgia, arkansas, georgia tech, fla. st over the last 2 years on the road.....also troy is 7-1 ats in the first of b2b games...
here is an angle that is similar to the arizona angle that i previously posted....
since 1980 teams that are coming off their first loss & are playing their 4th game at home are 69-91-1 (43%) ats....teams that qualify for this angle are.....ark. st., arizona st., geo. tech, & ohio st....
good luck
adding....
idaho+6(120).....
as far as i'm concerned these 2 teams are about equal & utah st does not deserve to be a 6 point favorite over idaho...especially since idaho is returning 10 players from last years offense & especially since idaho outgained utah st last year by a 428-272 yardage margin....i was also impressed that idaho outyarded w. mich. last week...
a system....
play against - home favorites (utah st) - slow starting team - outscored by 7+ PPG in the first half, after allowing 50 points or more last game.
since 1992 the ats record is.....26-6......81.2%
over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is.....12-2.....85.7%
good luck
idaho+6(120).....
as far as i'm concerned these 2 teams are about equal & utah st does not deserve to be a 6 point favorite over idaho...especially since idaho is returning 10 players from last years offense & especially since idaho outgained utah st last year by a 428-272 yardage margin....i was also impressed that idaho outyarded w. mich. last week...
a system....
play against - home favorites (utah st) - slow starting team - outscored by 7+ PPG in the first half, after allowing 50 points or more last game.
since 1992 the ats record is.....26-6......81.2%
over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is.....12-2.....85.7%
good luck
As usual you have great stuff Al. Thanks for the posts. Love the Troy play and totally agree with your assessment. :toast:
thanks guys..appreciate it....
adding....
monroe+7(120)....
i think this line is an over-reaction to the close games tulane played vs. bama & e. carolina...but i think tulane was in the right spots at the right time for those games where the situations favored them....but now the situation for this game favors monroe since tulane is in a cusa sandwhich...& i think tulane gave it their all last week when they came very close to upsetting e.carolina only to fall short...so i wonder if they will be into this game vs. the lowly sun conference team who i think will be competitive in this game.
here are some trends....
monroe is 11-2 ats after outgaining opp by 125 or more total yards in their previous game since 1992.
monroe is 9-1 ats as a road underdog of 7 points or less since 1992.
weatherbie (monroe coach) is 23-6 ats after allowing 100 or less rushing yards last game in all games he has coached since 1992.
weatherbie is 10-0 ats after outgaining opp by 125 or more total yards in their previous game as the coach of monroe.
tulane is 6-17 ats off 1 or more straight overs since 1992.
toledo (tulane coach) is 3-12 ats after 2 or more consecutive wins against the spread in all games he has coached since 1992.
0-2 teams (tulane) favored at home by 3.5 to 7.5 pts are only 5-30 (14%) ats in last 35 against the opponent with less than 2 wins (monroe).
i think this is a fg game either way....
good luck
adding....
monroe+7(120)....
i think this line is an over-reaction to the close games tulane played vs. bama & e. carolina...but i think tulane was in the right spots at the right time for those games where the situations favored them....but now the situation for this game favors monroe since tulane is in a cusa sandwhich...& i think tulane gave it their all last week when they came very close to upsetting e.carolina only to fall short...so i wonder if they will be into this game vs. the lowly sun conference team who i think will be competitive in this game.
here are some trends....
monroe is 11-2 ats after outgaining opp by 125 or more total yards in their previous game since 1992.
monroe is 9-1 ats as a road underdog of 7 points or less since 1992.
weatherbie (monroe coach) is 23-6 ats after allowing 100 or less rushing yards last game in all games he has coached since 1992.
weatherbie is 10-0 ats after outgaining opp by 125 or more total yards in their previous game as the coach of monroe.
tulane is 6-17 ats off 1 or more straight overs since 1992.
toledo (tulane coach) is 3-12 ats after 2 or more consecutive wins against the spread in all games he has coached since 1992.
0-2 teams (tulane) favored at home by 3.5 to 7.5 pts are only 5-30 (14%) ats in last 35 against the opponent with less than 2 wins (monroe).
i think this is a fg game either way....
good luck
Hi Ar,
Good to read your posts. I used to read them all the time at another forum. I'm not a member anymore there though.
HM
Good to read your posts. I used to read them all the time at another forum. I'm not a member anymore there though.
HM
Looks like we have similar shopping lists this week, Al. 
You might want to take a look at Central Florida. :SIB
You might want to take a look at Central Florida. :SIB adding.....
under 42(120) miami / tex. a & m......
i think this game has all the makings of a low scoring affair because both teams are young (a&m returning 10 starters...miami 11),are having problems along the offensive lines & have inconsistent passing attacks. i think on the road, miami will run a low-risk offense with their young qbs (28-48 with no ints) & ask their defense to keep them in the game (allowing 236 ypg which includes their game against miami).....this strategy should work against an a&m team that may be without their starting qb (injury) & is having a hard time adjusting to their new pro-style offense....the reason why i am not taking miami in this game is that in their last 4 games that have been on the board, miami is averaging 7.8 ppg.....
some trends.....
miami is 7-0 under off a road loss over the last 3 seasons.
miami is 8-1 under after playing their last game on the road over the last 3 seasons.
miami is 12-3 under as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.
i can be wrong & usually am when it comes to totals (lol) , but i don't see this game going past the mid 30s in total scoring...
good luck
under 42(120) miami / tex. a & m......
i think this game has all the makings of a low scoring affair because both teams are young (a&m returning 10 starters...miami 11),are having problems along the offensive lines & have inconsistent passing attacks. i think on the road, miami will run a low-risk offense with their young qbs (28-48 with no ints) & ask their defense to keep them in the game (allowing 236 ypg which includes their game against miami).....this strategy should work against an a&m team that may be without their starting qb (injury) & is having a hard time adjusting to their new pro-style offense....the reason why i am not taking miami in this game is that in their last 4 games that have been on the board, miami is averaging 7.8 ppg.....
some trends.....
miami is 7-0 under off a road loss over the last 3 seasons.
miami is 8-1 under after playing their last game on the road over the last 3 seasons.
miami is 12-3 under as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.
i can be wrong & usually am when it comes to totals (lol) , but i don't see this game going past the mid 30s in total scoring...
good luck
Looks like we have similar shopping lists this week, Al.
thanks taoist....i will take a look at c. fla shortly....
adding...
arkansas+10(120).....
imo the number on this game is too high. laying 2 scores on the road with a team like bama that is not explosive (their average drive takes about 8 plays or higher) is asking too much. this type of philosophy has kept bama from winning big on the road in the sec as witnessed by the fact that bama has 1 win by over a td since 2005. in addition this matchup is always a very close contest as the dog is 8-3 ats in the last 11. also bama is 21-37 (36%) ats since 2000. i also feel that the situation favors ark. because bama has a very big game next week against georgia & ark has had 2 weeks to prepare for this game since last week's game against texas was cancelled.....i read that conference home dogs with rest & playing off a win are 65% ats (don't have the actual numbers) winners. in addition ark. is 8-2-1 ats as a home dog of 8 or more points...& their coach (bobby petrino) is
17-6 ats in home games.
a system...
play against - road favorites (bama) - a good offensive team (28-34 ppg) against an average defensive team (21-28 PPG), after a win by 28 or more points.
over the last 10 seasons the ats record is.....26-6......81.2%
good luck
arkansas+10(120).....
imo the number on this game is too high. laying 2 scores on the road with a team like bama that is not explosive (their average drive takes about 8 plays or higher) is asking too much. this type of philosophy has kept bama from winning big on the road in the sec as witnessed by the fact that bama has 1 win by over a td since 2005. in addition this matchup is always a very close contest as the dog is 8-3 ats in the last 11. also bama is 21-37 (36%) ats since 2000. i also feel that the situation favors ark. because bama has a very big game next week against georgia & ark has had 2 weeks to prepare for this game since last week's game against texas was cancelled.....i read that conference home dogs with rest & playing off a win are 65% ats (don't have the actual numbers) winners. in addition ark. is 8-2-1 ats as a home dog of 8 or more points...& their coach (bobby petrino) is
17-6 ats in home games.
a system...
play against - road favorites (bama) - a good offensive team (28-34 ppg) against an average defensive team (21-28 PPG), after a win by 28 or more points.
over the last 10 seasons the ats record is.....26-6......81.2%
good luck
Very nice situational spot for the Rockets, I got on them early and may hit them again for a bit more.
as i said in another thread there are quite a few situational plays this week with either the favorite coming off a loss for the first time,or losing a big game, or having a big game next week...it'll be interesting to see how these games play out..
adding....
iowa...ml...
i think pitt has more talented players than iowa, but as a team i think iowa is fundamentally better in most aspects of the game than pitt...i know that iowa doesn't have such a great ats record on the road or after they play iowa st.....but pitt is 1-6 ats at home against opponents above the .600 win % behind wannstedt the last 3 years......
so far this year pitt. has been able to rush the ball for a total of only 230 yards combined vs. akron & buffalo's defensive fronts, so i don't see mccoy & the others doing much damage on iowa's tough defense....which leaves the game in pitt's shaky qb's hands which i think will lead to turnovers & occasionally a shorter field....i see iowa winning this game in an ugly fashion....
a moneyline system supporting this play....
play on - a road team vs. the money line (iowa) - solid team - outscoring opponents by 10 or more points/game, after allowing 9 points or less in 3 straight games.
since 1992 the record is........26-5......83.9%
over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is....5-0
over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is......11-1
good luck
iowa...ml...
i think pitt has more talented players than iowa, but as a team i think iowa is fundamentally better in most aspects of the game than pitt...i know that iowa doesn't have such a great ats record on the road or after they play iowa st.....but pitt is 1-6 ats at home against opponents above the .600 win % behind wannstedt the last 3 years......
so far this year pitt. has been able to rush the ball for a total of only 230 yards combined vs. akron & buffalo's defensive fronts, so i don't see mccoy & the others doing much damage on iowa's tough defense....which leaves the game in pitt's shaky qb's hands which i think will lead to turnovers & occasionally a shorter field....i see iowa winning this game in an ugly fashion....
a moneyline system supporting this play....
play on - a road team vs. the money line (iowa) - solid team - outscoring opponents by 10 or more points/game, after allowing 9 points or less in 3 straight games.
since 1992 the record is........26-5......83.9%
over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is....5-0
over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is......11-1
good luck
- Nov 19, 2007
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Doesn't it seem like too much has been made of the road loss at USC in and out of Columbus? Not sure if its true, but I heard today on national radio tha Pryor now getting majority of reps w/ 1st team. It's overreaction imo. This much stock shouldn't be put into a single loss, or even 3 losses to national powers away from home in 3 years. OSU should have kept their cool and gone about their recent domination of the Big Ten and weak ooc opponents. Now I sense posible collapse this week. I played Troy tonight as I get the feeling OSU will struggle. On a down note, it seems like a popular doggie, which always troubles me. Good Luck chief
