college plays for week 5......

[AR182]

adding....

boise st.-10....

i initally wasn't going to touch this game but the more i looked at it the more i liked boise....

first off..their sos is about the same...

boise's strength's play very well against so. miss weaknesses....& so. miss. strength plays against boise's strength...

on offense...so. miss. is completing only 52%(well below average)...while boise's pass defense yields 47%(excellent). so. miss strength (& their qb's) is in the running game where they average 182 ypg (only 4.2 ypr)...but boise's rush defense allows 2.7 ypr (excellent)......in fact their run defense is 14th in the country & is giving up just 80.7 ypg.....their overall defense is yielding only 249.7 ypg to rank 10th in the nation.....so i think boise's defense can keep so. miss somewhat in check....

on offense...although boise is not performing up to past offenses, i feel that the potential is there.... & they are still averaging 30 points per game while rushing for about 200 yards per game at 4.4ypr....boise qb is completing about 57% of his passes & i think through the air is where boise will beat so. miss because so. miss is allowing a little over 60% of their opponents passes to be completed...

some trends.....

boise is 11-0 ats at home when favore by 12 pojnts or less....

so.miss. is 6-14 ats away when playing a non-conference opponent in the middle of a cusa sandwhich...

i see boise winning this by at least 2 tds....

good luck.

 

[AR182]

All of this chalk covering during the first few weeks has you switching to the dark side.... :mj07:


Just kidding old friend. I just can't remember you playing that many fav's. BOL this week!

yeah..i know what you mean..this is how my numbers came out....:shrug:

good luck this weekend taoist...

 

[8)ELVIS(8]

arrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr , g.l this weekend !!!!! sweep their azz !

 

[Blackman]

Best of luck and enjoy that new Caddy.

 

[AR182]

thanks guys...appreciate it...


adding....

u48(130) psu/ill....

you would think that i would learn my lesson by taking unders in the ncaa....i guess i can't help myself...

last year the total points scored combined for these teams were 38...& i don't see them scoring much more than that with both qb's being very erratic....psu is ranked 67th in the nation in total offense...while ill. is 5th in the nation in rushing offense & psu is 6th in the nation in rushing defense...

system...

play under - home teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 (ill) - outrushing their opponents by 60 or more yards/game on the season, after outrushing opponent by 150 or more yards last game.....

ats record is 34-9 over the last 5 seasons....79.1%

the average total posted in these games was....46.1

the average score in these games was...team 24.9,opponent 15.8 (total points scored = 40.7)....

the number of games in which this system covered the total by 7 or more points was 24 (55.8% of all games.)....

the situation's record this season is....1-0...

over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is....18-5.....

good luck.

 

[Irish]

AR
Best of luck... hit em hard

Cheers
Irish

 

[DR STRANGELOVE]

good luck this week AL

 

[AR182]

i have unexpected guests tonight..so i can't watch the game & since i only bet the game to watch it....i took the other side...

so now i have...

so. miss. +11
boise st-10

good luck....& enjoy the game...

 

[AR182]

eventhough i took s. miss yesterday at the last minute, i still wound up winning small because i had more on boise than so. miss...just enough to keep me disinterested from watching the game...lol...

some writeups on some of the games that i already posted....cover your mouth i played a lot of chalk...

oregon-4(120).....

oregon is 9-2 ats in their last 11 home...they are also 18-2 ats at home after outgaining opp. by 175 or more total yards in their previous game since1992....while calif.is 3-7 ats in their last 10 away.. &2-4 ats in it's last 6 conf. road games....

v.t.-17....

this is vt's first home game in league play this year...

no.car.has no running attack (3.3 ypr) to keep the vt defense off balance...nc's offensive strength is their passing offense(led by a freshman qb making is 2nd start on the road)..which plays into vt's defensive strength, which is their excellent pass defense, which gives up an average of 5 yds. per pass....although statistically vt's offense is nothing great, i think they have been showing signs of improvement recently & i think they will be able to score enough against a poor nc defense to cover...vt also has a huge advantage on the special teams....

excluding their game against lsu, the vt defense has given up only 5.7 ppg....the nc coach is 1-19 ats when his team doesn't score 21 points or more...

vt is 38-16-2 ats in home games when not favored by 25 points or more...

system.....

play On - home favorites of 10.5 to 21 points (vt) -off a home blowout win by 28 points or more, with 4+ more total starters returning than opponent.....

ats record is....27-5 since 1992...84.4%

over the last 3 seasons the situation's ats record is....4-1....

over the last 5 seasons the situation's ats record is....9-3...

over the last 10 seasons the situation's ats record is....21-4....


georgia-14(130)....

i know georgia doesn't have a good record covering as a home favorite but i think georgia has large edges on both sides of the ball & the bulldogd will not take miss. lightly because of miss's close loss to fla. last week....


troy-12.5....

playing this basically because i was impressed with troy's performances against the 3 bcs (ark., fla, & ok st) teams they have faced this year...

systems...

play against - a road team (monroe) - with a terrible rushing D - allowing 5.25 or more rushing yards/carry, after allowing 6 or more rushing yards/attempt in 2 straight games......

ats record is....25-5 since 1992.....83.3%......

play on - favorites of 10.5 to 21 points (troy) - after scoring 20 points or more in the first half in 2 straight games against opponent after 2 straight games where 60 total points or more were scored.....

ats record is.....35-7 since 1992.....83.3%....


fla-17(130)....

last year fla, lost 1 game....& that was to auburn...& think auburn's team is having a down year...they only outgained new mex. st.last week by 47 yards...


tulsa-18.5....

tulsa passed for 300 yards against okla. last week..so think paul smith will have a huge game against a poor uab defense...uab only scored 22 points aginst alcorn st last week so don't think they will be able to keep up with tulsa....


fresno st-12.5....

fsu has the statistical edges on both sides of the ball.....& with fsu coming off a bye i think they will avenge the last 3 years losing to lt.....


bama+3(120)(how did this get in here)......

fla. st.still is unsettled at the qb position & think that bama is a better balanced team....

if i have time i will do some write-ups on the other games that i have played....

purdue-21(120)..payback for last 2 years...
o44 e. mich/vandy...
c. fla-21(120)...
conn.-14(130)....akron has a freshman qb starting his first game on the road...
u54 ucla/ oregon st...both teams have qb issues...
arizona-2(120)....
u48(130)penn st/ill....i did write-up in a previous post on this play...

good luck...

 

[AR182]

as my numbers continue to direct me towards the chalk this week....

adding...

rutgers-17(120)...

rutgers is going to run all over md's defense & will be hard pressed to sustain any drivesof their own...

system....

play against - road underdogs (md) - after allowing 31 points or more in 2 straight games against opponent after a win by 21 or more points.

ats record is....37-10 over the last 5 seasons......78.7%

the situation's ats record this season is....4-0...

over the last 3 seasons the situation's ats record is....21-5....


kentucky-24.....

i know many fine cappers like fau in this matchup, but i don't see it....i think most cappers who like fau are judging them based on their win over minny....but they only beat minny by 3 points despite getting 7 turnovers...i see this outcome of this game to resemble okl. st, where fau lost by 35.....even with a possible look ahead for kentucky towards so. carolina....

utah-21....

i'm looking for the return of utes qb johnson to ignite his team at home against a poor utah st....


good luck.

 

[Roger Baltrey]

AR,

Tulsa spread is at 22-, you got 18 in the post above.

 

[AR182]

AR,

Tulsa spread is at 22-, you got 18 in the post above.

yeah roger..i bet them when the lines first came out as my first post indicates...

 

[Cie]

yeah roger..i bet them when the lines first came out as my first post indicates...

The early bird gets the worm. Speaking of which, it's pretty damn early to be posting from Arizona, Al. I guess you weren't able to sleep with all the pending action:00hour GL today. I'm off to the LSU/Tulane game.

 

[The Judge]

Good luck with your plays, Al.

 

[AR182]

thanks guys...

since i have this game close to the number, i'm going to try for a middle....

conn.-14(130)
akron+17(130)


good luck.

 

[Chadman]

Best of luck today, AR. I agree with the over-assessment of FAU based on the Minny win. Minny could have the worst defense in the country - absolutely pathetic. Although I'm on the other side in the Notre Dame game, I wish you much success with the lumber today. Will be looking at some of your sides - great info on them, thanks.