college plays for week #5....

[AR182]

adding....

lsu-24....

lsu is coming off a come from behind win last week vs auburn & have a week off before playing fla. just think lsu will dominate this game on both sides of the ball...especially against msu's rebuilding offensive line.

on the season lsu is averaging 7.1 ypr at home...while msu allows 6.2 ypr on the road....on the other side of the ball msu is averaging 3.3 ypr on the road while lsu allows 2.1 ypr at home.

here are some trends....

lsu is 15-1 ats when they gain 6 to 6.5 total yards per play since 1992.

lsu is 14-2 ats vs miss. st since 1992

i wouldn't be making this play if lsu didn't have a bye before playing fla or the game wasn't in the evening...

good luck

 

[eichstadt28]

good luck this week. with u on ole miss and i like duke, too. bol :0corn :0corn :0corn

 

[AR182]

thanks..appreciate it...


adding...

illinois +17 (120)....

when i am working in my office i always keep a few screens open to a few of the books web site's to watch for any line moves. yesterday afternoon i noticed a lot of line movement on this game....& when the greek went to 16.5....i quickly jumped on the dog & bought a half point.

imo this is a lot of points to lay to a division team as good as ill. is, especially them being off last week....& i think with 2 weeks of practicing against the penn st spread offense, i think ill can stay within 2 scores of penn st., a team that has not been tested yet because they have played 3 cup cake teams. dating back to last season, ill is 6-0 ats getting dd, two of which they won outright including beating ohio st on the road.

illinois is 8-1 ats when playing against a top-level team (win % > 75%) over the last 3 seasons.

penn st is 1-8 ats vs. good offensive teams - scoring 31 or more points/game over the last 3 seasons.


play against - home favorites of 10.5 to 21 points (penn st) - with an excellent rushing d - allowing 100 or less rushing yards/game, after allowing 40 or less rushing yards last game.

over the last 10 seasons the ats record is......33-9..........78.6%


good luck

 

[Morris]

On that Miss play with you. GL this weekend!!

 

[IndianJoe]

Like your plays .... Marshall record on the road is dismal to say the least. Arkansas
State is -2 in Arkansas and I live 2 blocks from campus....Memphis/ASU are 67 miles apart and a dog fight ever year ........not a good game to play in my estimation.........I hope you win.......

 

[trolln4walii]

GL this week AR. Played the Canes and Illini on my card. Scratched my Marshall play ..... Like Mississippi, but my hard drive doesn't have enough room with all my other plays :mj07:

 

[AR182]

thanks guys.....tw i understand fully where you are coming from....:mj07:


adding...

tenn.+7.5(120).....

don't have time to do a big writeup but a few things stuck out for me in capping this game....

tenn. out yardaged both ucla & fla in their respective games..

a site that i use to check the % shows that out of 26,495 bets.....75% were on auburn......but the line fluctuated between 6 & 6.5 for most of the week except with 1 book who just moved to 7 & i grabbed it.

a few trends...

tenn. is 12-3 ats in road games after 2 or more consecutive losses against the spread since 1992.

tenn. is 15-5 ats in road games off a loss against a conference rival since 1992.


good luck

 

[AR182]

adding...

under 45 (120) bama / geo...

think this is going to be a very physical type of game & should go under pretty comfortably if there are no turnovers.

play under - all teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 (bama or georgia) - an excellent offensive team (>=34 ppg) against an excellent defensive team (<=16 ppg), in conference games.

over the last 5 seasons the ats record is......30-6.......83.3%


good luck

 

[BobbyBlueChip]

tenn. is 12-3 ats in road games after 2 or more consecutive losses against the spread since 1992.

tenn. is 15-5 ats in road games off a loss against a conference rival since 1992.

That seems right - Fulmer always has his team up when they're left for dead and I'm usually always against them.

GL

 

[AR182]

thanks bbc...good luck also...

adding...

fla. st-5....

imo this game reflects people's perception of these 2 teams...col. beat (an over-rated west virg. team) in ot a team that is usually ranked high while fla st lost last week without scoring any tds.

col. is 2-10 ats in their last 12 games following a game in which they cover the spread and 3-7 ats last 10 games after a straight up win.


good luck

 

[AR182]

adding....

c. mich.-6(120).....


good luck

 

[Whitt's End]

GL this weekend AR. with you on FSU, C Mich, and Illini. butting heads on Memphis/ASU.

 

[The Judge]

Good luck with your card this week, Al. I'm on a couple of them myself.

 

[AR182]

thanks guys....

adding...

under 48 san jose / hawaii....


good luck

 

[AR182]

adding....

troy +18

under 54 tcu / okla.


good luck

 

[AR182]

i bought back the lsu play because i changed my mind on the game...so i now have...

lsu-24
miss. st+25


good luck

 

[THE KOD]

AR

no biggee but I dont have numbers coming out right for this weeks record.

gl this coming week.

yur about to go on a run

 

[AR182]

AR

no biggee but I dont have numbers coming out right for this weeks record.

gl this coming week.

yur about to go on a run

scott...

don't know what you mean..are you auditing me ?

 

[THE KOD]

Marshall +16
Iowa -7
Miami -7
Ark St Pk
N Mex St +4
Duke -6.5
Illinois +17
Tenn +7.5
Georgia U 45
Fla St -5
C Mich -6
San Jose /Haw U 48
Troy +18
TCU/Oklahoma Under 54

LSU -24 bought back
...........................................................

I may be wrong but I dont see 7-7

 

[AR182]

Marshall +16
Iowa -7
Miami -7
Ark St Pk
N Mex St +4
Duke -6.5
Illinois +17
Tenn +7.5
Georgia U 45
Fla St -5
C Mich -6
San Jose /Haw U 48
Troy +18
TCU/Oklahoma Under 54

LSU -24 bought back
...........................................................

I may be wrong but I dont see 7-7

scott....

i know you are bored in life but bother somebody else.my record is not your concern..i post for the info i get. my record is of little consequence to you or anybody else...that is why i tell people not to follow what i play...i post on 5 forums & i make changes as the day progresses & sometimes i can't get to post my changes....now if you don't like that take it up with jack.

now if you want to put up $500 i will prove my record to jack in which he will be able to verify...otherwise go bother somebody else.