college plays for week #6....

[AR182]

went 7-7 last week....for the season i am 38-30 +6.70*...nothing great.

i wanted to post these 2 plays now...may have more extensive writeups later on this week but here is some info on these plays..


so. miss.-7 (120).....

like that so. miss is coming off a bye.....

so. miss is 6-0 ats off a loss against a conference rival over the last 3 seasons.....

play on - home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (so.miss.) - after a game where they forced 1 or less turnovers against opponent after a game with a turnover margin of +2 or better.

over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is......17-6......73.9%



okla. st.-23 (120).....

okla. st. averages about 6.5 ypr while a & m allows about 5.7 ypr.

okla. st is 11-0 ats after scoring 50 points or more last game since 1992.

okla. st is 9-1 ats in home games after 2 straight wins by 17 or more points since 1992.

a & m is 1-11 ats versus excellent rushing teams - averaging >=5.25 rushing yards/carry since 1992.


good luck

 

[ajoytoy]

bol this week Al

 

[Irish]

Good luck AR, I also like that Okla St game. I think A&M is a about to fold it up for the season. Army should have beaten them.

Cheers
Irish

 

[atmswim]

I went to A&M and absolutely love the school and football program. BUT they absolutle suck this year. The only reason we scored a point in the Miami game was due to one lucky play. I think OK state is going to run it up on us at home. Hopefully I can win some money for this awful team.

 

[AR182]

thanks guys....

adding....

baylor+28(130)....

okla. is coming off a revenge win over tcu & next week they have their big game against texas....& this week they could possibly look past a team that they have beaten 17 straight times. with robert griffin at qb, baylor has a balanced offense that is averaging about 200 yards per game both through the air & on the ground.

last year okla. lost outright to 23 point dog, colorado the week before their game against texas.

coming off a bye week, i think baylor is in a good situation to keep the score on this game within 4tds.

play on - home underdogs of 14.5 or more points (baylor) - in conference games, returning 8+ offensive starters and QB against opponent returning 5 or less defensive starters.

since 1992 the ats record is.......25-4.......86.2%

over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is....6-0

over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is.....10-1


also played...

gt-14...

this id dukes first road game of the year & after watching them last week, i don't think they will be able to handle the option offense that gt runs.

gt is coming off a bye week & their coach, paul johnson has a history of having his teams well prepared in his teams first game after a bye. johnson is 11-4 su/ats during the regular season when playing with rest, including 9-1 ats as favorites of more than 3 points.

also game 5 teams (duke) playing their first road game off a su/ats win are 7-17 ats....29%


also played....

iowa st+14 (130)....

both iowa st & kansas are coming off bye weeks....ku has colorado next, while isu has baylor.

i like the fact that under this coach, isu never quits...no matter the score. last year isu was 4-1 ats as a home dog, beating kan. st & colorado & holding okla. to 17 points....also isu has covered 5 of the last 6 times they played ku at home.....& isu is 12-3 ats as dogs of 2 or more points when playing with conference revenge.

play against - road favorites of 10.5 to 21 points (kansas) - off a bye week.

over the last 10 seasons the ats record is.....51-20.....71.8%

over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is.....8-2......80%

over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is......18-5.....78%


good luck

 

[AR182]

adding...

n. mex.-11...

wyoming have been outstated in all 5 games this year & have gone 14 games without covering the spread & think they have tuned their coach out & have given up for the season.

think that nmex. will be able to run on wyoming since they allow 4.8 ypr. on the road...on the other side of the ball n. mexs run defense has been very good at home allowing 3 ypr....& don't think wyoming can take advantage of n. mex's shoddy pass defense since they rank 115th in the country in pass offense with a combined 2 td passes & 10 ints over the season.

wyoming is 0-7 ats vs. poor passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 58% or worse over the last 2 seasons.

wyoming is 0-9 ats against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.

wyoming is 1-12 ats when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.


also playing....

tex. tech-7.....

this is my 2nd road favorite that i played this year...but kan. st is not a good defensive football team...over the final 4 games last year they allowed 198 points...& last week gave up 37 points & 500 yards to lafayette....the last time kan. st played tex tech, they gave up close to 600 yards in losing 59-20.

tex. tech is 15-5 ats vs. poor ball control teams, 28 or less possession minutes/game since 1992.

kan st is 2-10 ats vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 58% or better. over the last 3 seasons.


also playing.....

miami ohio-7....

like last season miami has given up a ton of points in non-conference play..but i think they will again show well in mac play. last year they allowed less than 20 points per game in mac play & now they play temple who is having offensive problems. over the last 3 games, temple is averaging 11 points per game...last week against w. mich. & playing without their starting qb, managed only 198 yards of offense (60 yds. passing)

think miami will take out their frustrations of being manhandled by the big boys on temple.


good luck

 

[AR182]

i was thinking of taking the points with colorado but changed my mind after reading this on another forum....

Colorado suffered a couple big blows to their offensive line with season ending injuries last week against FSU to OL Mariner and OL Ryan Miller...Miller was a freshman All American last season. And they say Mariner might have been even better.. This gets me off of Colorado, who I was considering in this spot. It more than likely means a less affective run game for Colorado, which they would have needed against Texas. Miller will be replaced by a reshirt freshman...Colorado now has a very inexperienced offensive line going into league play.

 

[spang]

i was thinking of taking the points with colorado but changed my mind after reading this on another forum....

Colorado suffered a couple big blows to their offensive line with season ending injuries last week against FSU to OL Mariner and OL Ryan Miller...Miller was a freshman All American last season. And they say Mariner might have been even better.. This gets me off of Colorado, who I was considering in this spot. It more than likely means a less affective run game for Colorado, which they would have needed against Texas. Miller will be replaced by a reshirt freshman...Colorado now has a very inexperienced offensive line going into league play.

I had this spot circled for the Buffs for some time now, I'll probaly still squeeze out a play but it will be toned down.

 

[blaster]

AR,
YOU HAVE A GOOD LOOKIN' CARD
KEEP UP THE GREAT WORK!

BLASTER

 

[Blackman]

Like the New Mexico play AR, Wyoming is a very solid fade right now.

Considered the Buffs but am passing for the same reasons you mentioned.

Best of luck

 

[freelancc]

good luck Al...:toast:

 

[AR182]

thanks guys...

under 17 (130) lou tech....

boise st's defense is playing very well, especially at home. boise has only allowed 14 points through two games at home to idaho st. & bowling green. idaho st. is averaging 31 ppg in their other 3 games not played at boise, while bg is averaging 29.67 ppg when not playing at boise. lou tech's offense is much worse than those 2 teams. their qb has completed just 26 of 73 passes in two games against div.1a competition (miss state & kansas) & the bulldogs' rush attack is 0.8 yards per rushing play below average (4.7 yprp against teams that would allow 5.5 yprp to an average team). lou tech averaged just 268 total yards at 4.0 yppl against msu & kansas & bsu is much better defensively than either of those teams.

the last 3 times lou tech played at boise......

2002: 36-10 boise win
2004: 55-14 boise win
2006: 55-14 boise win

imo this is a better boise defense than in years past & i think taking the under on the points that lou tech will score is worth a shot.


good luck

 

[AR182]

adding.....

virginia+14....

last week maryland upset clemson as a dd dog & has a big game next week against wf..while virginia played duke evenly for the first half...turnovers killed virginia in the second half...think virginia can stay within the points if they can minimize their mistakes.

since 1986 dd road favorites off a su win as a dd road dog are 2-8 ats.

play on - a home team (virginia) - with a turnover margin of -1 /game or worse on the season, after 2 consecutive games with a turnover margin of -2 or worse.

over the last 5 seasons the ats record is....38-10........79.2%

over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is.......16-3......84%

good luck

 

[AR182]

adding.....

under 57 (120) wash. st / ucla....

wash.st. is ranked 92nd in total offense averaging 322 ypg...they are ranked at 103rd in the nation in scoring averaging 19 ppg. i know that wazzou had been gashed defensively for 39, 66,45, & 63 points.... but those were against some potent offenses..teams that were ranked 3rd, 10th, 30th and 7th scoring offenses that did this to them. we know that ucla is nowhere near those offensive numbers......they are ranked 114th in total offense averaging less than 280 ypg...& are averaging 17 ppg coming in at 109th in scoring offense.

ucla is 5-2 under in their last 7 games & 13-3 under at home against a team with a losing record.


also playing.....

toledo + 8.......

i discount toledo's loss last week to fiu, i just think that the rockets were in a terrible spot that was sandwiched between a heartbreaking loss to fresno & their big game against mac heavyweight ball state.

I like ball st. qb davis but he's going to miss star receiver love in this game....but ball st.will still be plenty potent on offense. the stat that attracted me to this play is that bsu allows about 220 rushing yards per game....& i think toledo, who averages a little over 5 yds. per rush should be able to take advantage....& i think rushing dogs are worth a shot.

toledo has only been home dogs 8 times since the year 2000, & are 7-1 ats in that role...they are also 19-9 ats off of a su loss and 39-19 ats against mac teams.....also the home team in this head to head series is 11-3-1 su since 1993 with the average margin of victory being 20 ppg.

play on - underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (toledo) - in conference games, off a upset loss as a double digit home favorite.

over the last 10 seasons the ats record is.......29-7......80.6%

over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is.....13-2....86.6%


also playing......

arizona-21......

may have a writeup on this game later in the week.



good luck

 

[Pete Rose]

GL, AR. Love following your plays. Thinking about tailing you on the Red Raiders.

 

[AR182]

thanks pete....appreciate it...


hit my under 17 on lou tech play last night.....tonight i am playing....


pitt.+14(120)....

i think this line is an over-reaction to last week's results...where so. fla manhandled ncst, while pitt. struggled with lowly syracuse.

pitt. is a team that runs the football, controls the clock, plays field position, and plays very good physical defense....& i think a team that plays this type of football is worth a play, especially getting 2 tds...i also read that maybe there best player on the team, george selvie (de) may not play because of an ankle injury..... but even if he does he will not be 100%.

play against - home favorites of 10.5 to 21 points (so. fla) - with an excellent rushing d - allowing 100 or less rushing yards/game, after allowing 40 or less rushing yards last game.

over the last 10 seasons the ats record is.......34-10......77.3%


good luck

 

[SIMON]

Your info is absolutely good stuff !!!!!

I'm printing this out....:shade:

 

[spang]

If I could ever predict a flat spot for a team, Ball State would be my choice for a big bounce this week.

They had the big win at Indiana 2 wks ago then followed up with an easy home win for the homecoming crowd with the thoughts of a big effort for Love in mind. Now they travel to face a potent offense and everybody has moved the ball pretty well against the Card's defense.

I love that play.

 

[AR182]

Your info is absolutely good stuff !!!!!

I'm printing this out....:shade:

simon...

thanks..

as i say at the bottom of my posts.....be careful with my plays....i am not somebody you should blindly follow...

 

[AR182]

If I could ever predict a flat spot for a team, Ball State would be my choice for a big bounce this week.

They had the big win at Indiana 2 wks ago then followed up with an easy home win for the homecoming crowd with the thoughts of a big effort for Love in mind. Now they travel to face a potent offense and everybody has moved the ball pretty well against the Card's defense.

I love that play.

yeah i agree spang...think toledo will be able to run on the bsu defense....so imo that is a good dog play..