college plays for week #9....

[AR182]

74-47..

hoping to duplicate last weeks results....

kansas...ml...

i like kansas in this spot playing at home & think they have an offense that can be better than tex. tech on saturday...they are 22-2 at home since 2005 & 17-9 ats as a home favorite since 2000 including 15-5 since 2004.

historically under leach, tex. tech does well at home (44-10 su) & plays mediocre ball on the road ( 23-24 su)...& although they are 3-0 on the road this year, they have faced the 92nd, 105th and 101st ranked total defenses in the nation.....kansas will be the best defense that they have faced on the road this year.

kansa is 10-1 ats in games played on turf over the last 2 seasons.

tex. tech is 0-6 ats in road games off a win against a conference rival over the last 3 seasons.


play against - road underdogs vs. the money line (texas tech) - with an excellent offense - averaging 6.1 or more yards/play, after outgaining opp by 225 or more total yards in their previous game.

over the last 5 seasons the record is......34-5......87.2%


good luck

 

[HUDSON]

GL this weekend AR!!!

 

[AR182]

thanks hudson...good luck to you also...

adding....

under 44 (120) ohio / temple...

will probably have a writeup on this play tomorrow...


good luck

 

[LDB]

Adam DiMichele QB Out Indefinitely (shoulder)
for the owls.. should help with the unders.. :00hour :00hour

 

[AR182]

thanks ld...but i just read that it's a game time decision...

 

[blaster]

NICE WORK AR. KEEP IT ROLLIN'

LIKE BOTH SIDES YOU PLAYED SO FAR AND MAY TAKE A PIECE OF THAT ACTION AS WELL.

GOOD LUCK,
BLAST

 

[Irish]

nice job last week. I like Kansas too because they have been battle tested. If Nebraska can give the red raiders a tough game I do not hold them in high regards.
Good Luck
Cheers
Irish

 

[rubiconed]

GL Tonight AR !!! :toast:

On the Under too !!! :00hour

 

[Blackman]

Best of luck this week AR and thanks for the info. Very impressive record thus far.

 

[Cie]

74-47..

Excellent work as always, my friend. GL this week.

 

[AR182]

thanks guys...

thoughts on the under for tonight's game....


this is the 8th consecutive week that ohio is playing football & 3rd consecutive road game. their spread offense is ranked 74th in the nation in scoring.....averaging 23 ppg. but if you subtract the 51 points scored against vmi, their average is 19 ppg. their defense is ranked #72nd in the nation giving up 26 ppg......& statistically they are better against the pass than against the run.

temple is also playing football for 8 straight weeks. they are ranked # 114th in total offense & 111th in scoring scoring offense averaging 17 ppg.they have scored in the single digits 3 times in their 7 games they have played. on defense, they are ranked 34th in the nation giving up 19 ppg.

the under for the owls is on a bunch of streaks.....including 12 of the last 14 games played, 13-3-1 at home, 9-1 in conference play, 6-0 in october games & 5-0 against teams with a losing record.

temple is 11-1 under in home games after 1 or more consecutive losses against the spread since 1992.

temple is 10-1 under after the first month of the season over the last 2 seasons.

golden is 10-1 under after playing a conference game as the coach of temple.

golden is 7-0 under off 2 or more consecutive unders as the coach of temple.

the under is also 4-1 in ohio?s last five on the road.

solich is 6-0 under off a road win against a conference rival as the coach of ohio.


play under - any team against the total (temple) - after covering the spread in 5 or 6 out of their last 7 games, in october games.

over the last 5 seasons the ats record is......53-19.......73.6%

with both teams playing for 8 consecutive weeks, i think we may see 2 sluggish teams tonight......& then again i may be wrong...lol.


good luck

 

[AR182]

some lines have been moving pretty rapidly....so i wanted to post this play before it moves any further...

rutgers +10.....

i got this line when it first opened....& i just saw that pinnacle dropped it to 8...imo anything over a td is good....

i really like the way rutgers has been playing lately & i think this game will be decided by 3 points either way....in addition rutgers has played a harder schedule to date than pitt.

schiano is 12-1 ats in road games after having lost 2 out of their last 3 games as the coach of rutgers.


good luck

 

[LetsMakeMoney]

GL this week bud :toast:

 

[ajoytoy]

superb record...thanks for all you do Al...gl this week

 

[AR182]

thanks guys...

adding.....

san jose st+8(120).....

imo, sjs is a team that the public has not caught on to, not only this season but over the last few years. they are 21-8 ats in last 29, and 15-2 su and 12-2 ats in the last 14 at home (9-0 last 9 at home) with only two home losses against hawaii last year (in overtime, sjsu covered as home dog) and against boise in 2006 (lost by 3 as big home dog but covered the spread).

sjs is a well coached team that has an average opportunistic offense that takes advantage of almost every opportunity given to them by their defense. the key to sjs's success is their defense.....they are ranked #11 in run defense, 35th in pass defense, 13th in total defense, 4th in ints, 3rd in turnovers gained, 7th in passing efficiency defense, 23rd in punt return defense, 14th in kickoff return defense, 8th in first down defense, 18th in third down defense, 3rd in sacks, & 9th in tackles for loss. they are also the best wac team in turnover diffential and # 9 in the nation. their red zone defense in TD allowed is just a little bit better than boise's. they are one of the fewest penalized teams in the nation and they force their opponents to comit tons of penalties. they are +226 in yards gained vs yards lost on penalties and boise is at -99 yards.

with boise being on tv alot this year,we seem to know them very well. it seems like they are a strong team that plays defense very well & has an inexperienced qb.but i think boise may be an over-rated team....they have played some of the worst defenses in the country & none was even close to sjsu. at the time boise played these teams, their defenses were ranked 74th ( bowling green), 79th ( hawaii), 81st (oregon), 94th (la tech), & 103rd (so. miss.) they also played 0-7 idaho state allowing 470 yards per game and 41 points per game.on the other hand, san jose state stil played nebraska tough, at stanford, at hawaii (long trip and won that game) and @ new mexico state (dominated the most explosive offense in the wac).

play against - a road team (bsu) - off a home win against a conference rival against opponent off 3 straight wins against conference rivals.

over the last 5 seasons the ats record is.....43-17.......71.7%

over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is......23-7.....76.6%

i may be wrong but i think sjs will keep this game close throughout....


good luck

 

[AR182]

adding...

cin...ml...

cin. is coming off a bye week...& expect tony pike back from injury at qb....who has a very good 8.3 yds. per pass attempts with 6 tds & i int. before injury. their only loss this year was to okla., but in the 4 wins since then, cin. has allowed 13.8 pts. per game on defense. i don't expect cin. to have any problems controlling conn's 1 dimensional offense, since the huskies are now using their 2nd or 3rd string qb. & eventhough conn. can run the ball fairly well, they managed to score 12 points or less against temple, n. car., & rutgers. & although conn. usually has a good defense, this year they have allowed 5.5 yds. per play against teams that are not as explosive as cincy.

play on - a road team vs. the money line (cin) - after allowing 17 points or less in 3 straight games against opponent after a loss by 6 or less points.

over the last 10 seasons the record is.......25-3........89.3%


good luck

 

[Morris]

Tempted to tail your under tonite. GL this weekend!!

 

[AR182]

thanks morris...

adding....

n. ill-7.....

played this when the line first came out....saw that it is now 7.5....

hit my best bet with n. ill. last week & am coming back with them again, but at this point not a best bet.

this is a pretty simple matchup for me....last week bg was unable to slow down a below average offense of miami o as the redhawks rushed for over 200 yards at 5 ypr......meanwhile n. ill averages about 200 yds. per game rushing the ball & allows 16 fewer points per game than bg..


good luck

 

[trolln4walii]

Continued success this week to one of MJ's finest!! Terrific record this season AR. SJSt was on my list but I saw no one else touching it. I'm not that confident on my own but feel encouraged when I see you on it :00hour It's hard to go against Boise but may end up playing them afterall

Glad to see you on the J-Hawks and my alma matre NIU Huskies. BOL for another super week :thumb:

 

[Master Capper]

good run AR, if you get time whats your opinion on the Rice and Tulane game if you have one, and good luck this week.