college plays for week #9....

[AR182]

thanks guys...

mc...

right now i am leaning to rice...but not sure since tulane is coming off a bye & they have a decent running attack which rice has trouble defending...

who do you like ?

 

[AR182]

adding...

duke+11(120)...

think this is a potential flat spot for vandy since this is the only non-conference game in a string of 8 that they play & especially considering that they have beaten duke 6 games in a row.

i don't think vandy has the type of offense that can extend a lead to cover as a dd favorite. in addition to only scoring 14 points in each of their last 3 games,they have only thrown for more than 100 yards in 2 of the 7 games that they have played, & have been outgained in 5 of their games....in wins they were outgained by 100 yards to so. carolina, by 63 against rice, by 183 against miss.....in their game against miss. st they were outgained 247-107 yards. the main reason why vandy has started out 5-0 on the season is because they were +11 in turnovers....& in the last 2 games in which they lost, they committed 4 ints.

duke is lead by qb lewis who has completed 58% of his passes this year & has thrown 8 tds & 3 ints....eventhough duke is in a rebuilding mode, they have either been in the lead or been within a field goal in the 2nd half of all of their lossess, they just haven't been able to close the deal. i think because of the flat spot that vandy is in, duke will be able to handy with them throughout the game...


good luck

 

[AR182]

hit the under in the temple game which turned out to be a pretty easy win...now will try another under for one of thurs. games....hope it's just as easy....

under 47(120) n. mex. / af.....

may have a more extensive writeup later today or tomorrow....but the basic reason why i'm playing this game to go under is because both teams run the ball alot better than throwing it downfield....

play under - any team against the total (n. mex) - after covering the spread in 5 or 6 out of their last 7 games, in weeks 5 through 9.

over the last 5 seasons the ats record is....54-19......74%

the situation's record this season is.....1-0

over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is......36-11....76.6%


good luck

 

[AR182]

adding....

under 46(120) mich. st / mich...

last game both qbs were hurt (msu's qb got a concussion & mich. qb hurt his non-throwing arm elbow) & missed part of their respective games...& eventhough both qbs are listed as probable i wonder how effective they will be...

play under - any team against the total (msu) - after being beaten by the spread by 21 or more points total in their last three games against opponent after being beaten by the spread by 42 or more points total in their last five games.

over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is....19-7....72%


good luck

 

[AR182]

adding....

boston college +3....

boston college is off a big win against virginia tech, while no. carolina is off a tough ot loss to virginia.

bc is one of the few teams in the country that has outgained every opponent that they have faced this year.....& despite allowing 23 points & turning the ball over 5 times (2 pick sixes) in their win over vt last week, they only allowed the hokies 240 total yards. on the year the bc defense is allowing 13 points per game...& is ranked #2 in the acc in total defense & against the run...on offense, bc is ranked #3 in the acc...they also run the ball at 4.5 ypr while allowing 3.3 ypr on defense.

on the other hand carolina seems to be winning with "smoke & mirrors". their 5-2 record belies the fact they have been outgained in 5 of their 7 games this season, including losing the yardage battle to mcneese st. nc's offense, & specifically their passing game has been significally less efficient since qb yates went out with an injury....& with top wide receiver & kick return specialist tate out for the year, the offense struggled even more against the virginia defense....on offense n.car. runs the ball at 3.6 ypr & on defense they allow 3.5 ypr.

bc is 10-1 ats in their last 11 times that they have been a road dog of less than 10 points...

the north carolina coach, butch davis is 3-19 ats as a college head coach in games when he is favored & his team fails to score 30 points.

also ot losers who play at home in their next game are 50-78-3 ats (39%) since the inception of ot in college football...


good luck

 

[big papi]

but NC is unraked fav!

 

[AR182]

but NC is unraked fav!

ok...:shrug:

papi...

do you know what is the record for unranked favorite over a ranked opponent in college football ?

 

[big papi]

no but it worked last week when I had BC over Virginia Tech and it has worked very well for me in the past. The fact that UNC is coming off a ot loss makes it a no play for me but GL!

AR I think you are a great capper just want to help out throwing out my opinion. We always can't agree! Just curious if you are the guy who is#1 in the cnnsi challenge? I am tied for 13.

http://www.fannation.com/college_pickem/leaderboard

 

[AR182]

no but it worked last week when I had BC over Virginia Tech and it has worked very well for me in the past. The fact that UNC is coming off a ot loss makes it a no play for me but GL!

AR I think you are a great capper just want to help out throwing out my opinion. We always can't agree! Just curious if you are the guy who is#1 in the cnnsi challenge? I am tied for 13.

http://www.fannation.com/college_pickem/leaderboard

big papi...

thanks for the compliment...

no that's not me....i stopped entering contests because i always seem to remember to post my plays after the deadline....

and btw i never mind people questioning my plays..that's what these forums are suppose to be about...

 

[hawkeye]

GL Ar--realy like the S Jose play-always read your write ups they are very good.

 

[AR182]

thanks hawk...appreciate it...i always look at your posts also...

adding....

ok st+13 (120)....

this is texas 3rd big game in a row...they scored an incredible 101 points in their previous 2 games...but also gave up 66 points. imo ok st. presents texas with a tougher challenge than both okla & missouri did because i think ok st is more well balanced on offense than the other 2...ok st averages 46 pts. per game, 5.5 ypr & 10.8 yds. per passing attempt..all outstanding figures. on defense ok st is allowing 218 yds. per game through the air at a 58% completion rate...their defense was impressive in their last 2 games against missouri & baylor.

obviously i don't think that ok st will stop the texas passing attack, but i think they can slow it down somewhat to cover the number....


since 1980 play on a dog in any regular season college football game from game 6 on out if both teams own a 1.000 win %.....if the undefeated dog is off a spread win of more than 10 points in its last game...the dog is 16-1 ats.....94%.....play on ok st.....


good luck.

 

[Master Capper]

AR,

My stats lean quite alot towards Tulane, but need to look more at both teams defenses since both will be playing polar opposites offenses this week.

 

[AR182]

AR,

My stats lean quite alot towards Tulane, but need to look more at both teams defenses since both will be playing polar opposites offenses this week.

mc....

i decided that i am not touching that game....

good luck

 

[AR182]

adding....

la tech+3 (120)....

army is in the same situation that n. carolina is in.....blowing a lead last week & eventually losing in ot.....so the same trend that goes against nc also applies to army.....ot losers who play at home in their next game are 50-78-3 ats (39%) since the inception of ot in college football...

good luck

 

[AR182]

adding....

nc st.+11....

maryland must be feeling really good about themselves after shutting out wake...but if you look at their won/lost record you will notice that they are a "2-faced team"....they will beat wake & clemson but then lose to middle tenn. st. & be shut out to virginia....so how can they be trusted to lay double digits to ncst...who has a dynamic qb & defense that is getting healthy.....& although ncst is 0-3 in acc play, they are 3-0 ats..

since 2004 maryland is 4-11 ats as a home favorite...

maryland is 1-8 ats after allowing 14 points or less last game over the last 3 seasons.....


good luck

 

[djv]

Well I see we agree and dis-agree on some this week. Thats ok just shows there are differant ways of coming to a perdiction. Makes it fun. Hell we both can win.
GL

 

[AR182]

thanks dave....


adding...

under 51 so. miss / memphis.....

this may be a sucker bet..but if it is i'm sucked right in...

last week memphis lost their top 2 qbs in the first half...they accumulated 49 total yds. & 2 first downs for the entire 2nd half with their 3rd string qb....before last week, this guy threw 1 pass in his entire career.....even with a week of practice how much could this guy learn....so i'm thinking that memphis will try to use ball control & short passes for this game...while so. miss should run primarily on the memphis defense that gave up 180 rushing yards last week...


good luck

 

[Home Wrecker]

thanks hawk...appreciate it...i always look at your posts also...

adding....

ok st+13 (120)....

this is texas 3rd big game in a row...they scored an incredible 101 points in their previous 2 games...but also gave up 66 points. imo ok st. presents texas with a tougher challenge than both okla & missouri did because i think ok st is more well balanced on offense than the other 2...ok st averages 46 pts. per game, 5.5 ypr & 10.8 yds. per passing attempt..all outstanding figures. on defense ok st is allowing 218 yds. per game through the air at a 58% completion rate...their defense was impressive in their last 2 games against missouri & baylor.

obviously i don't think that ok st will stop the texas passing attack, but i think they can slow it down somewhat to cover the number....


since 1980 play on a dog in any regular season college football game from game 6 on out if both teams own a 1.000 win %.....if the undefeated dog is off a spread win of more than 10 points in its last game...the dog is 16-1 ats.....94%.....play on ok st.....


good luck.

I have a ton of respect for your plays and appreciate the time and effort you put into your writeups! I enjoy reading everything you do on the teams I enjoy watching, cheering for etc. Be careful with this game. I don't know how much you have watched the BIG 12, but to say that Okie State has a more balanced offense then OKLAHOMA???? Thats a bold statement. The Texas defense is getting better EVERY WEEK. You noted that they had given up 66 points in the last two weeks, I was at the game last week in Austin and that defense only gave up 3 POINTS to Missouri in the 1st half!!!!! They were up 35-3 at the half. Thats tough for any defense in a prime time game to remain too fired up for in the 2nd half. Also, Texas played a lot of younger players in the 2nd half which allowed for the first unit to get some rest. The new North Endzone addition that pushes the attendance to 96,000+ has made a HUGE difference. More students are in there and you can tell a difference in the crowd noise compared to the past.

Best of luck!

 

[AR182]

I have a ton of respect for your plays and appreciate the time and effort you put into your writeups! I enjoy reading everything you do on the teams I enjoy watching, cheering for etc. Be careful with this game. I don't know how much you have watched the BIG 12, but to say that Okie State has a more balanced offense then OKLAHOMA???? Thats a bold statement. The Texas defense is getting better EVERY WEEK. You noted that they had given up 66 points in the last two weeks, I was at the game last week in Austin and that defense only gave up 3 POINTS to Missouri in the 1st half!!!!! They were up 35-3 at the half. Thats tough for any defense in a prime time game to remain too fired up for in the 2nd half. Also, Texas played a lot of younger players in the 2nd half which allowed for the first unit to get some rest. The new North Endzone addition that pushes the attendance to 96,000+ has made a HUGE difference. More students are in there and you can tell a difference in the crowd noise compared to the past.

Best of luck!

home wrecker....

i saw the texas / okla game because i had texas...it was the best game i have seen in a few years...i had also seen the ok st/ missouri game because i took missouri (what was i thinking..lol)

and you are probably right that i shouldn't have said that ok st has a more balance attack than okl.....however i do think they run the ball better than okla...while okla. throws it better...

thanks for your insightful post...you may be right but i'll keep my play & if it loses..it loses....

good luck

 

[AR182]

adding....

under 56 tex a& m / iowa st.....

i am basically tailing hawkeye...but since i don't like to blindly follow somebody's play, i decided to do some research on this play..

i don't think that either team has a potent offense......& contrary to how they played last week against tex. tech, a & m is more effective on offense by getting physical and running the ball, which eats up the clock...

play under - any team against the total (texas a&m) - after going over the total by 49 or more points total in their last seven games, in weeks 5 through 9.

over the last 5 seasons the ats record is.......22-3........88%


play under - any team against the total (iowa st) - after being beaten by the spread by 35 or more points total in their last three games against opponent after being beaten by the spread by 35 or more points total in their last five games.

over the last 5 seasons the ats record is.......20-5......80%


good luck