I read this post on an Auburn message board......
Scoring averages and margins:
The scoring averages and margins of both teams against their major opponents, indicates a LSU victory. Auburn has averaged 36 points per game, while allowing 28 points against their 5 BCS opponents. LSU has averaged 26 points, while allowing 15 against their 6 BCS opponents. Auburn has scored 39.8 percent more than what their opponent has allowed, while holding their opponent to 10.1 percent below their scoring average. LSU has scored 23.8 percent more than their opponent has allowed but has led their opponent to 42.4 percent below their scoring average.
Taking, Auburn?s average score vs. LSU?s scoring margins and LSU wins, 35-21. Taking the average score of LSU vs. Auburn?s scoring margins and LSU wins, 23-21. Average the two scores, and LSU wins, 29-21.
How good is LSU?s defense?
They are ?
holding their opponent to 42.4 percent below their scoring average.
holding their opponent to 47.6 percent below their rushing average.
holding their opponent to 30.0 percent below their total yardage.
If this holds true this Saturday, Auburn will have...
21 points
148-yards rushing
336 total yards
The 6 BCS opponents LSU has faced this season are currently averaging 351-yards and 26 PPG, so Auburn will clearly be the most difficult offensive opponent they have face this season. The average ranking of their BCS opponents in terms of total-offense is 79th nationally. Mississippi State is the highest ranked offense they faced this season, currently ranked 55th in total offense.
Which quarterback will take the majority of snaps against Auburn?
Jordan Jefferson has started every game but Jarrett Lee has seen extensive action the last 3 weeks. Lee has clearly been the more accurate passer and I have a feeling Lee will play extensively this week in an attempt to be more balanced on offense. For the season, Jefferson has a passer rating of 89.9 on third down and Lee has a rating of 126.8, slightly lower than Ryan Mallet on third down.
Impact Plays:
Through 7 games, LSU has 42 impact plays on offense (15-yards or more) and have allowed 30 on defense. Auburn?s offense has compiled 71 impact plays on offense, while allowing 41 on defense. Overall, that gives Auburn a slight edge with a 1.7 ratio in impact plays to LSU?s 1.4 ratio.
This might be the game, where Cameron Newton will be called upon to make his impact plays in the passing game. LSU will certainly be the most difficult run-defense Auburn has faced and of the 30 impact plays allowed by the LSU defense, 22 have come via the pass and 8 have come on the ground. There should be no doubt, LSU will scheme and sell out to limit Newton's running lanes and they will likely force the Auburn offense to beat them, throwing the football.
The average ranking of Auburn?s opponent when it comes to run-defense is 64th nationally, allowing 153.7 YPG. South Carolina has been the highest ranked run-defense Auburn has faced (14th), allowing 100-yards per game. For the season, Auburn is averaging 45.8 percent more yards rushing than what their opponent allows. Taking LSU?s current yardage allowed per game on the ground (84-yards) vs. Auburn?s rushing margin; Auburn is projected to rush for 122-yards.
This week will be a major challenge for Gus Malzahn as LSU under John Chavis is the only defense to hold a Gus Malzahn offense to under 200-yards (193-yards). Malzahn and the 2010 Auburn offense got their revenge against Kentucky and Arkansas but can they dial it up again against an improved LSU defense?
