College Plays From 10/26 - 10/31....

[AR182]

Excuse me if I don't sit for a while because after last week my rear end is very sore....I know quite a few others got back door losses also, but getting it 5x (4 losses & a push) was an all-time high for me & because of it, i had a losing week.... But this is a new week & we have to remain optimistic....

I got the following from another site & thought that some might find this interesting....

ATS winners / losers....

5-0 ATS
Utah

5-1 ATS
Boise St.
Hawaii
N. Illinois
N. Carolina
OK St.
OR St.
V Tech.

5-2 ATS
Ark. St.
KY
OH St.

4-1 ATS
UCF
IA
SDSU

1-5 ATS
Marshall
NM
NM St.
WI

1-4 ATS
BC
Buff
Kent St.
MTSU
NW
PSU
Rutg
USF
TAMU

Overs / Unders....

6-0 O/U
OR St.
KY

6-1 O/U
Army
BG

5-1 O/U
Marshall
NM
OK St.
UNLV

5-2 O/U
OH St.
USC
E. MI

4-1 O/U
KS
NE
OR
S. CAR.
TN
TxT
VT

0-7 O/U
BYU

0-5 O/U
MTSU
ND

1-5 O/U
AF
WYO

2-5 O/U
AL
Miami (OH)
N.TX

1-4 O/U
BC
Clem
FAU
MO
PUR
Rice
SDSU
USF
UT St.

Will be back later on with some of my plays....

Good luck....

 

[Irish]

You may be on USC?...... HOW DARE YOU haha

GL captain

Cheers
Irish

 

[grandpa]

Excuse me if I don't sit for a while because after last week my rear end is very sore....I know quite a few others got back door losses also, but getting it 5x (4 losses & a push) was an all-time high for me & because of it, i had a losing week.... But this is a new week & we have to remain optimistic....

I got the following from another site & thought that some might find this interesting....

ATS winners / losers....

5-0 ATS
Utah

5-1 ATS
Boise St.
Hawaii
N. Illinois
N. Carolina
OK St.
OR St.
V Tech.

5-2 ATS
Ark. St.
KY
OH St.

4-1 ATS
UCF
IA
SDSU

1-5 ATS
Marshall
NM
NM St.
WI

1-4 ATS
BC
Buff
Kent St.
MTSU
NW
PSU
Rutg
USF
TAMU

Overs / Unders....

6-0 O/U
OR St.
KY

6-1 O/U
Army
BG

5-1 O/U
Marshall
NM
OK St.
UNLV

5-2 O/U
OH St.
USC
E. MI

4-1 O/U
KS
NE
OR
S. CAR.
TN
TxT
VT

0-7 O/U
BYU

0-5 O/U
MTSU
ND

1-5 O/U
AF
WYO

2-5 O/U
AL
Miami (OH)
N.TX

1-4 O/U
BC
Clem
FAU
MO
PUR
Rice
SDSU
USF
UT St.

Will be back later on with some of my plays....

Good luck....

Good stuff brotha

 

[AR182]

Thanks guys....

Under 50 Az / UCLA....

Both teams have QB problems & both will play backups in this game....And while the Az backup played well last week, that was at home & against a weaker defense than he will face in this game.... This will be the very first time that the Az backup will be starting on the road & will face a fired-up UCLA defense that was embarrassed last week by Oregon....So I expect Az to play a more run-control type of offense in this game & try to take the pressure off of this new QB....

Play Under - Road teams where the total is between 49.5 and 56 (Az) - off a home win against a conference rival against opponent off a road blowout loss by 28 points or more....

Since 1992 the record for this system is....28-7.... 80%....

The average total posted in these games was.... 52.7....The average total points scored in these games was....46.4....

Good luck....

 

[The Situation]

Damn .. Awesome info :0074

 

[AR182]

Thanks....Appreciate it....

Duke+14.5(120)....

Duke has some experience defending the option because they played Army earlier in the year & annually play GT, so I think they should be able to slow Navy down somewhat....On the other side of the ball, duke is a pass first team & should have some success aginst the Navy defense that allows 67% pass completion on average....

Navy is 0-10 ATS at home off a SU dog win & are 4-12 SU & 3-13 ATS at home vs. ACC opposition....

Here is a system that shows that Navy should be flat for this game & over-look Duke....

Play against any college favorite that beat ND as a dog in its last game if it beat the spread by 10 or more points & is facing a sub .600 opponent in this game....

Since 1980 the record for this system is....10-0-1 ATS....100%....

Good luck....

 

[gardenweasel]

Thanks....Appreciate it....

Duke+14.5(120)....

Duke has some experience defending the option because they played Army earlier in the year & annually play GT, so I think they should be able to slow Navy down somewhat....On the other side of the ball, duke is a pass first team & should have some success aginst the Navy defense that allows 67% pass completion on average....

Navy is 0-10 ATS at home off a SU dog win & are 4-12 SU & 3-13 ATS at home vs. ACC opposition....

Here is a system that shows that Navy should be flat for this game & over-look Duke....

Play against any college favorite that beat ND as a dog in its last game if it beat the spread by 10 or more points & is facing a sub .600 opponent in this game....

Since 1980 the record for this system is....10-0-1 ATS....100%....

Good luck....

this makes sense on so many levels....thanks for posting,bud...

 

[Full court press]

I like to take a long look at a good capper that is off a bad week. Chances are that you will rebound with a great week.

Thanks for the cover stats, much appreciated.

 

[BobbyBlueChip]

Thanks....Appreciate it....

Duke+14.5(120)....

Duke has some experience defending the option because they played Army earlier in the year & annually play GT, so I think they should be able to slow Navy down somewhat....On the other side of the ball, duke is a pass first team & should have some success aginst the Navy defense that allows 67% pass completion on average....

Navy is 0-10 ATS at home off a SU dog win & are 4-12 SU & 3-13 ATS at home vs. ACC opposition....

Here is a system that shows that Navy should be flat for this game & over-look Duke....

Play against any college favorite that beat ND as a dog in its last game if it beat the spread by 10 or more points & is facing a sub .600 opponent in this game....

Since 1980 the record for this system is....10-0-1 ATS....100%....

Good luck....

I've never seen a worse scheme against the option and it's not just hyperbole. The unblocked DE was reading the QB's options and they had no answer for an unbalanced Navy line. I'll be on Duke as well.

 

[layinwood]

Here is a system that shows that Navy should be flat for this game & over-look Duke....

Play against any college favorite that beat ND as a dog in its last game if it beat the spread by 10 or more points & is facing a sub .600 opponent in this game....

Since 1980 the record for this system is....10-0-1 ATS....100%....

Good luck....

:scared That's a nice find AR. I like plays like this because there is great reasoning behind the system.

 

[AR182]

Thanks guys....

Here is a game that I played when the line first came out....I wasn't going to post it, but some asked me to even if the line that I played isn't available anymore....

Temple-27(120)....

Akron ranks near the bottom in almost every stat category on both offense & defense, while I look for Temple to continue playing well after coming off their most complete game of the year....

Play On - Home favorites of 21.5 to 31 points (Temple) - average offensive team (4.8 to 5.6 YPP) against a team with a terrible defense (>=6.2 YPP), in conference games....

Since 1992 the record for this system is....27-4.... 87.1%....

The average line posted in these games was.... Team favored by 24.6....The average score in these games was....Team 45.3, Opponent 10.7....

Over the last 5 seasons the system's record is....12-1....92.3%....

Good luck....

 

[AR182]

Over 52(130) UAB / So. Miss....

UAB is a very scrappy team that never gives up & allows a very poor 11.3 yypt on the road....While So. Miss. is coming off a bye & has scored 40+ points in each of their last 3 games & also allow a very poor 12.1 yypt....In addition I saw 3 different computer simulations of this game & they generated 55, 54, & 57 total points scored....

So. Miss. is 8-0 over as a home favorite of 7.5 to 14 points over the last 3 seasons....The average score was So. Miss 43.8, Opponent 29.6....

Good luck....

 

[AR182]

Calif+3....

I am going against a lot of good cappers in this game, but imo the better team is the one getting the points, even with them being 0-3 SU (1-2 ATS) on the road....OSU is coming off a bye & losing a heartbreaking 2OT game vs. Wash. the week before....OSU has lost the stat battle in 5 of their 6 games & they have allowed more than 450 ypg on defense in 5 of their 6 games (27+ points in each) & for the season they have allowed an average of 114 YPG more than they have gained....In addition, OSU again will be without their all-everything WR/KR Rodgers, who is out for the season....Calif. has held 5 of 7 opponents to season low yardage & will be looking to avenge a 17 point home loss from last season as a 7 point favorite....

A few of us have been keeping a record of how teams perform off of an OT loss....Here is something that I read on this subject & it pertains to this game....

Overtime losers are now a not-so-good 154-183-7 ATS (45.6%) in their next game, including 2-6 ATS this season (I have it at 2-5 ATS)....And it doesn?t matter if these losers are rested or not as they are 30-39 ATS (43.4%) when playing with an extra week off an overtime defeat....

To take this a little further, there is a system....

Play against any college football home favorite if they lost their last game SU in overtime....

A team who just fell just short of victory in an extended session in their last game is now asked to assume an undesirable role of a home favorite in their next game....These teams are 31-59 ATS (34.4%)....

To take this further....Put them up against a winning team (more than .500) and they really go into a tailspin, going 10-27-1 ATS (27%)....

To take this even further....When these OT losers are home favorites & allow 21 or more PPG on the
season, they are 3-18 ATS (14.2%)....

Play against....Oregon St....

Good luck....

 

[AR182]

Miss.+7.5(120)....

Auburn is on top of the football world as they are ranked #1 in the nation....& this is right up Miss. head coach, Nutt's alley as his teams are 8-0 ATS vs. top 10 teams & has upset #2, #1 (2x), & #4 outright in that span....In addition Miss. is 9-2 ATS as a home dog of 7 or more points & Nutt is 4-0 Su / ATS as a home dog vs. an opponent allowing 19 or more points....On the other hand, AU is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 times as a road favorite & the 2 times that AU played on the road this season, they beat Miss. St. & Kentucky by 3 points each....

Play On - Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (Miss.) - off a loss by 10 points or more to a conference rival against opponent after 2 consecutive covers as a favorite....

Over the last 10 seasons the record for this system is....78.4%....

The average line posted in these games was.... Opponent favored by 7.1....The average score in these games was....Team 24.7, Opponent 23.8....

Cam Newton is a great player, but don't over-look the Miss. QB, Jeremiah Masoli, who gained 425 total yds. against Arkansas, the 2nd highest total in school history....

Good luck....

 

[AR182]

Vandy+21(120)....

This is a sandwich game for Ark. as they are off a big win over their former coach & have ranked So. Carolina up next & with Mallett hurting, think Ark. will look to finish this game ASAP & try to limit the injuries....Vamdy is 10-2 ATS as conference road dogs....

Here is something that I read that I found interesting....

The opening line was 22.5 & is now down to either 20 / 20.5....The betting public is correct when moving the money line in Arkansas games 70.8% (17-7 ATS) of the time over the past 3 seasons.....Edge....Vandy....

Play On - Underdogs of 10.5 to 21 points (Vandy) -after failing to cover the spread in 3 out of their last 4 games against opponent after covering the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games....

Over the last 10 seasons the record for this system is....103-49....67.8%....

The average line posted in these games was.... Opponent favored by 15.1....The average score in these games was....Team 21.6, Opponent 33.2....

Good luck....

 

[AR182]

USC+7....

USC comes into this game fresh off a bye (21-7 ATS in games after a bye) & in the belief that they too could very well be undefeated as their 2 losses this year were by last second field goals....This is also the game USC has been waiting for all season because last year OU beat them by 27 points....It was their 1st loss by over 7points since 2001....This is also the 1st time since 2001 that USC is a home dog....OU is coming into this game ranked #1 in the USA Today Coaches Poll & off of detroying UCLA at home 60-13....For the season they are averaging a staggering 55 ppg on offense....

I admit that Oregon's offensive stats are very impressive, but if you look closely at who they have played, you will notice that they have played a very lite schedule as their opponents have a combined SU record of 10-28....That's a 26.3 winning %....

OU has to show me that they can go on the road & beat a quality team....I have my doubts....

Play Against - Road favorites (Oregon) - excellent rushing team - averaging 5.25 or more rushing yards/carry, after outrushing opponent by 125 or more yards in 2 straight games....

Since 1992 the record for this system is....67-30....69.1%....

The system's record this season is....4-1....80%....

Good luck....

 

[Clem D]

Don't worry about a bad week. Al your work here over the years is invaluable. Thanks I'm on a few of them. Like that So miss over. Like the side more though:0corn

 

[AR182]

Thanks very much Clem....Appreciate your post....

C. Mich-11(120)....

What has been killing CM this year is turnovers as they are -12 in turnover margin....From the line of scrimmage, CM has performed quite well this year & should not have any problems controlling the game on both sides of the ball against a rather weak BG team (injuries) that gained only 135 & 176 total yds respectively in their last 2 games....

CM is on a 5 game losing streak when laying double
digits & teams that are off a loss as a double digit favorite are 11-4 ATS (73.3%) in their next game....

Cm takes out their frustrations in this game....

Good luck....

 

[Full court press]

Thanks very much Clem....Appreciate your post....

C. Mich-11(120)....

What has been killing CM this year is turnovers as they are -12 in turnover margin....From the line of scrimmage, CM has performed quite well this year & should not have any problems controlling the game on both sides of the ball against a rather weak BG team (injuries) that gained only 135 & 176 total yds respectively in their last 2 games....

CM is on a 5 game losing streak when laying double
digits & teams that are off a loss as a double digit favorite are 11-4 ATS (73.3%) in their next game....

Cm takes out their frustrations in this game....

Good luck....

I played this game under the total.

I understand your thinking on this one. This is a game that CMU should and really needs to win. The natives are getting restless with new coach Enos who replaced Butch Jones when he bolted to Cincy. Enos is already under plenty of fire from the Chipps faithful who are having problems adjusting to life without Dan LeFevour at QB.

Also there are a few of big injuries with both teams. Both teams best RBs, Cotton and Geter, are very questionable at this time. CMU also will probably be without two of their better defenders, defensive end Kinville , who was suspended for a cheap shot vs. NIU last week. Safety Addae is also doubtfull after an ankle injury in the same game. Addae is a very key injury IMO. He was all over the field vs NIU and had 10+ tackles.

Just some food for thought, so be careful with this one. This is the MAC where strange things ofen occur.

GL Al

 

[AR182]

Thanks for your thoughts Fcp....Appreciate it....

Indiana+4(120)....

3 weeks ago NW had a disappointing loss at home to Purdue & then they had a bye week where they spent the next 2 weeks gearing up to beating undefeated Mich.St....NW put everything into last week's game & built a 17 point lead, only to lose in the 4th qtr.(I had them)....I thnk they are very demoralized over what happened to them over the past few weeks & now they play at lowly Indiana....Indy is coming off a 30 point loss to Illinois, but they out-yarded Ill. 388-289 & turned the ball over 5 times....

Under this coach, NW is 5-16 ATS as a favorite, including 1-10 ATS vs. an opponent off a double-digit loss....

In last season's game between these 2 teams, Indy built a 28-3 lead, only to lose to NW 29-28....Think Indy will be ready for this game while I am not so sure NW will be....

Good luck....