College Plays From 9/30 - 10/2....
- Thread starter AR182
- Start date
rrc,
This is what I found by going through some of my "stuff"....Hope you find this useful....
I belong to a few computer sites....& after running their computers thousands of time....1 computer got 64 total points scored....& the same site using different criteria got 61 points scored....& the other computer site got 56 total points scored....However, there are quite a few systems that point to the under....here is the highest rated one....
Play Under - All teams where the total is between 49.5 and 56 (Both teams qualify) - after a cover as a double digit favorite, in weeks 5 through 9....
Over the last 5 seasons the record for this system is....52-21....71.2%....
The average total posted in these games was.... 52.6....The average total points scored....47.9....
Over the last 3 seasons the system's record is....31-8....79.4%....
Good luck with whatever you decide....
Made some changes & added a few more plays....
Georgia-3 (120)....
Navy+10....
Clemson+4(120)....
Tenn+17(120)....
Toledo-3....
NC State+4....
Iowa-6(120)....May take PSU at 8(120)....
Under 44(120) Tulane / Rutgers....
Mich.St.+3 (130)....
Under 49(120) Fla. / Bama....
I bought off the ND play....This is how it looks....
ND-2(120)....
BC+3(120)....
There are a few reasons why I got off the ND play, but the main reason is that BC was shut out at home last week by a physical team & I don't see ND going toe to toe with BC like VT did w/o a rushing attack & if they do win, I think it will be by 1 score, so maybe it will land on 3....
Also....Teams (BC) in game 4 of a season opening 4 game homestand are 5-1 ATS off a SU loss in which they scored less than 10 points....
Good luck....
Georgia-3 (120)....
Navy+10....
Clemson+4(120)....
Tenn+17(120)....
Toledo-3....
NC State+4....
Iowa-6(120)....May take PSU at 8(120)....
Under 44(120) Tulane / Rutgers....
Mich.St.+3 (130)....
Under 49(120) Fla. / Bama....
I bought off the ND play....This is how it looks....
ND-2(120)....
BC+3(120)....
There are a few reasons why I got off the ND play, but the main reason is that BC was shut out at home last week by a physical team & I don't see ND going toe to toe with BC like VT did w/o a rushing attack & if they do win, I think it will be by 1 score, so maybe it will land on 3....
Also....Teams (BC) in game 4 of a season opening 4 game homestand are 5-1 ATS off a SU loss in which they scored less than 10 points....
Good luck....
I like Toledo in this spot but have not played them yet. I can't quite figure Wyoming out because they have been playing teams that are way over their heads. I'm a bit worried about a Toledo let down as well. As I'm sure you are aware, Mac teams did pretty well against the BigTen last Saturday.
Still, the Rockets will likely be on my card before kick off.
Still, the Rockets will likely be on my card before kick off.
Made some changes & added a few more plays....
Georgia-3 (120)....
Navy+10....
Clemson+4(120)....
Tenn+17(120)....
Toledo-3....
NC State+4....
Under 44(120) Tulane / Rutgers....
Under 53(120) Ohio / E. Mich....
Mich.St.+3 (130)....
Under 49(120) Fla. / Bama....
Under 42(120) Penn St / Iowa....
Army+6 (120)....
I bought off the Iowa play....This is how it looks....
Iowa-6(120)....
Penn St.+8(130)....
There are a few reasons why I got off the Iowa play....They are 1-4 ATS before meeting Michigan & 2-7 ATS as favorites of 24 or less points after scoring 35 or more points....Also this is a dog series as the they are 9-2 ATS with 6 outright upsets since they started playing against each other....
Good luck....
Georgia-3 (120)....
Navy+10....
Clemson+4(120)....
Tenn+17(120)....
Toledo-3....
NC State+4....
Under 44(120) Tulane / Rutgers....
Under 53(120) Ohio / E. Mich....
Mich.St.+3 (130)....
Under 49(120) Fla. / Bama....
Under 42(120) Penn St / Iowa....
Army+6 (120)....
I bought off the Iowa play....This is how it looks....
Iowa-6(120)....
Penn St.+8(130)....
There are a few reasons why I got off the Iowa play....They are 1-4 ATS before meeting Michigan & 2-7 ATS as favorites of 24 or less points after scoring 35 or more points....Also this is a dog series as the they are 9-2 ATS with 6 outright upsets since they started playing against each other....
Good luck....
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GLAD to see you back, took Iowa early at -6.5 was hoping for a solid 8.5, probably not gonna happen, best of luck!
Thanks guys....Appreciate it....
A few writeups....
Under 47 Vandy / Conn....
I didn't list this in my previous post, but I just played it....
Both teams are predominantly rushing teams & think Vandy is going to force Conn. to play their type of football, which translates into a field position type of game....Vandy is 1/2 in o/u's this year & their 1 game that went over was because the total was 41 & the final total points scored was 44....Conn. is also 1/2 in o/u's, with the 1 over coming last week against Buffalo, who does not have a strong defense....
Vandy is 8-0 under in a road game where the total is between 45.5 and 49 since 1992....The average total points scored was 35.9....
Play Under - All teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 (Conn.) - after a cover as a double digit favorite, in October games....
Over the last 5 seasons the record for this system is....43-9....82.7%....
The average total posted in these games was.... 46.2....The average total points scored....39.5....
Army+6(120)....
Army ranks 1st in the nation in time of poss. & 8th in rushing offense (275 ypg & 4.5 ypr) & shouldn't have a problem running the ball against the Temple defense who allow 160 yards (4.2 ypr) per game....They are also rated 3rd in the nation in turnover margin....On the other side of the ball, Temple ranks 111th in the country in 3rd down conversions, so they should have problems sustaining drives....In addition, Temple usually has a Penn. St. hangover as they are 3-12 su in their last 15 games after facing PSU....
Play Against - A road team (Temple) - off a road cover where the team lost as an underdog, good team, winning 60-80% or more of their games on the season....
Over the last 10 seasons the ATS record for this system is....33-6....84.6%....
The system's record this season is....1-0....
Over the last 3 seasons the system's record is....10-1....90.9%....
Under 42 (120) Penn St. / Iowa....
This game has all the ingredients of a slugfest as PSU ranks 3rd in the nation in 3rd down % defense, while Iowa ranks 25th....& both teams rank very high in total defense with Iowa 1st & PSU 18th.....In addition, Iowa?s rush defense ranks 3rd in the country....& both teams also rank in the top ten in scoring defense with Iowa 5th and Penn State 8th.....PSU games are 0/3 in o/u with no total score going over 36 points, while Iowa games are 1/2....
Play Under - Any team against the total (Iowa) - in a game involving 2 very good teams - outscoring opponents by 10+ PPG, after shutting out their last opponent....
Over the last 5 season's the record for this system is....28-8....77.8%....
Under 49 (120) Fla. / Bama....
I think this game also has the makings of a defensive game & the key to this game, imo is Fla's defense....& they seem to have realized it also, as they have been working on this game, specifically, stopping the run, since they were hammered last year in the SEC title game for 251 yards on the ground.....This quote sums it up. ?It was a nasty taste last year with the loss,? defensive tackle Jaye Howard said. ?And this offseason was dedicated to beating Alabama.?....
Bama is 16-3 under in home games after 4 or more consecutive straight up wins since 1992.....
The average total points scored was....36.1....
Play Under - All teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 (Fla.) - off a home blowout win by 28 points or more, in October games....
Over the last 5 season the record for this system is....31-6....83.8%....
The average total posted in these games was....46.3....The average total points scored....40....
Good luck....
A few writeups....
Under 47 Vandy / Conn....
I didn't list this in my previous post, but I just played it....
Both teams are predominantly rushing teams & think Vandy is going to force Conn. to play their type of football, which translates into a field position type of game....Vandy is 1/2 in o/u's this year & their 1 game that went over was because the total was 41 & the final total points scored was 44....Conn. is also 1/2 in o/u's, with the 1 over coming last week against Buffalo, who does not have a strong defense....
Vandy is 8-0 under in a road game where the total is between 45.5 and 49 since 1992....The average total points scored was 35.9....
Play Under - All teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 (Conn.) - after a cover as a double digit favorite, in October games....
Over the last 5 seasons the record for this system is....43-9....82.7%....
The average total posted in these games was.... 46.2....The average total points scored....39.5....
Army+6(120)....
Army ranks 1st in the nation in time of poss. & 8th in rushing offense (275 ypg & 4.5 ypr) & shouldn't have a problem running the ball against the Temple defense who allow 160 yards (4.2 ypr) per game....They are also rated 3rd in the nation in turnover margin....On the other side of the ball, Temple ranks 111th in the country in 3rd down conversions, so they should have problems sustaining drives....In addition, Temple usually has a Penn. St. hangover as they are 3-12 su in their last 15 games after facing PSU....
Play Against - A road team (Temple) - off a road cover where the team lost as an underdog, good team, winning 60-80% or more of their games on the season....
Over the last 10 seasons the ATS record for this system is....33-6....84.6%....
The system's record this season is....1-0....
Over the last 3 seasons the system's record is....10-1....90.9%....
Under 42 (120) Penn St. / Iowa....
This game has all the ingredients of a slugfest as PSU ranks 3rd in the nation in 3rd down % defense, while Iowa ranks 25th....& both teams rank very high in total defense with Iowa 1st & PSU 18th.....In addition, Iowa?s rush defense ranks 3rd in the country....& both teams also rank in the top ten in scoring defense with Iowa 5th and Penn State 8th.....PSU games are 0/3 in o/u with no total score going over 36 points, while Iowa games are 1/2....
Play Under - Any team against the total (Iowa) - in a game involving 2 very good teams - outscoring opponents by 10+ PPG, after shutting out their last opponent....
Over the last 5 season's the record for this system is....28-8....77.8%....
Under 49 (120) Fla. / Bama....
I think this game also has the makings of a defensive game & the key to this game, imo is Fla's defense....& they seem to have realized it also, as they have been working on this game, specifically, stopping the run, since they were hammered last year in the SEC title game for 251 yards on the ground.....This quote sums it up. ?It was a nasty taste last year with the loss,? defensive tackle Jaye Howard said. ?And this offseason was dedicated to beating Alabama.?....
Bama is 16-3 under in home games after 4 or more consecutive straight up wins since 1992.....
The average total points scored was....36.1....
Play Under - All teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 (Fla.) - off a home blowout win by 28 points or more, in October games....
Over the last 5 season the record for this system is....31-6....83.8%....
The average total posted in these games was....46.3....The average total points scored....40....
Good luck....
love your write ups...glad your posting good. Good luck this weekend im sure you will have a bunch of winners for us!:toast:
Your input is priceless. So glad to have you around. One of the few "must-reads" on the net.
I've been struggling in NCAA and sizzling in NFL, which is the exact opposite of my normal m.o.
It's just part of the game. Keep on keepin' on!
I've been struggling in NCAA and sizzling in NFL, which is the exact opposite of my normal m.o.
It's just part of the game. Keep on keepin' on!
Thanks very much guys....
A few more writeups....
Mich.St.+3....
I don't have any systems or trends for this game....I just feel taking a home dog in this type of game is a good play because the talent on Wisc. & Mich. St. are very similar as witnessed by them playing 3 straight close games including 1 decided by a field goal & 1 decided by 1 point....
The following is taken from another capper & although some might find this as nonsense, I thought it made sense....My comments are in parenthesis
There is a method that some cappers use in capping games & that is yards per point....However
it's difficult to use this method for early season college football due to the soft schedules teams play.....It works better towards the end of the year when you can take out the weak teams....But it can still be used if strength of schedule is taken into account....For example, both teams in this game have current offensive numbers of roughly 12 yds. per point....Wisc. has an 18 on defense while MSU has a 19.....That's a 1 point edge for MSU....Give them at least a field goal for home field & MSU would be a 4 point favorite....Now, adjust for schedule strength & while both have played weak schedules, it looks as though MSU has played a schedule 2 points ( The site that I use has MSU with a .2 better strength of schedule) stronger than Wisconsin....That makes MSU -6 (Using this method, I have MSU-4.2)....Maybe the wrong team is favored here....
Under 45 ND / BC....
Just made this play....
BC has had awful QB play this year & will start a redshirt freshman in this game & I think they will try to control the line of scrimmage (ND allows 4.7 ypr) by ramming the ball at ND....On the other side of the ball, think the BC defense should be able to contain the 1 dimensional ND offense....ND is 1/3 in o/u's this season, while BC is 0/2 in lined games....
BC is 8-1 under in non-conference games over the last 3 seasons....The average total points scored were 38.1....
Under 53 (120) Ohio / E. Mich....
Ohio is playing their 3rd straight road game, ranks 118th in total offense, averages only 13 first downs a game, & is off a last minute loss in last week's game, while EM averages 16 first downs....
EM is 9-0 under in home games when playing against a bad team (Win Pct. 25% to 40%) since 1992.... The average total points scored was 44.4....
Play Under - Home teams where the total is between 49.5 and 56 (EM) - after going over the total by 21 or more points total in their last three games, in the first half of the season....
Over the last 5 seasons the record for this system is....35-11....76.1%....
The average total posted in these games was....53.1....The average total points scored in these games was....48.2....
Under 44(120) Tulane / Rutgers....
When capping this game, I was surprised to find that TU has held all 3 opponents (SE Lou, Miss., Houston) that they faced this year to season low yardage & that their defense is ranked 42nd in the nation & allows an average of 329 ypg....Rutgers' offense ranks 110th in the nation & face their first conference opponent , Conn. next Friday....
A stat site that I use has a section where their database searches for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's & where the final game statistics were comparable to their computer's projections ( Yards / Play & Turnovers) of this game....Their results found that 36 games went under the total, while 13 went over the total....That means 73.4 % of the games went under....
Good luck....
A few more writeups....
Mich.St.+3....
I don't have any systems or trends for this game....I just feel taking a home dog in this type of game is a good play because the talent on Wisc. & Mich. St. are very similar as witnessed by them playing 3 straight close games including 1 decided by a field goal & 1 decided by 1 point....
The following is taken from another capper & although some might find this as nonsense, I thought it made sense....My comments are in parenthesis
There is a method that some cappers use in capping games & that is yards per point....However
it's difficult to use this method for early season college football due to the soft schedules teams play.....It works better towards the end of the year when you can take out the weak teams....But it can still be used if strength of schedule is taken into account....For example, both teams in this game have current offensive numbers of roughly 12 yds. per point....Wisc. has an 18 on defense while MSU has a 19.....That's a 1 point edge for MSU....Give them at least a field goal for home field & MSU would be a 4 point favorite....Now, adjust for schedule strength & while both have played weak schedules, it looks as though MSU has played a schedule 2 points ( The site that I use has MSU with a .2 better strength of schedule) stronger than Wisconsin....That makes MSU -6 (Using this method, I have MSU-4.2)....Maybe the wrong team is favored here....
Under 45 ND / BC....
Just made this play....
BC has had awful QB play this year & will start a redshirt freshman in this game & I think they will try to control the line of scrimmage (ND allows 4.7 ypr) by ramming the ball at ND....On the other side of the ball, think the BC defense should be able to contain the 1 dimensional ND offense....ND is 1/3 in o/u's this season, while BC is 0/2 in lined games....
BC is 8-1 under in non-conference games over the last 3 seasons....The average total points scored were 38.1....
Under 53 (120) Ohio / E. Mich....
Ohio is playing their 3rd straight road game, ranks 118th in total offense, averages only 13 first downs a game, & is off a last minute loss in last week's game, while EM averages 16 first downs....
EM is 9-0 under in home games when playing against a bad team (Win Pct. 25% to 40%) since 1992.... The average total points scored was 44.4....
Play Under - Home teams where the total is between 49.5 and 56 (EM) - after going over the total by 21 or more points total in their last three games, in the first half of the season....
Over the last 5 seasons the record for this system is....35-11....76.1%....
The average total posted in these games was....53.1....The average total points scored in these games was....48.2....
Under 44(120) Tulane / Rutgers....
When capping this game, I was surprised to find that TU has held all 3 opponents (SE Lou, Miss., Houston) that they faced this year to season low yardage & that their defense is ranked 42nd in the nation & allows an average of 329 ypg....Rutgers' offense ranks 110th in the nation & face their first conference opponent , Conn. next Friday....
A stat site that I use has a section where their database searches for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's & where the final game statistics were comparable to their computer's projections ( Yards / Play & Turnovers) of this game....Their results found that 36 games went under the total, while 13 went over the total....That means 73.4 % of the games went under....
Good luck....
Thanks very much grandpa....This year i am in your boat....I spend maybe 1 hour capping the NFL & dozens of hours capping college, & it is in the pros where I am making my money....Lucky for me I put more money on the NFL games....
Hopefully we both will turn it around in college....
Thanks very much for your nice words & good luck....
:toast:
Grabbed a couple of handfuls of the Iowa/Penn State under 41.5 last night. Thinking you are on to something getting off the Iowa side....something smells here and it ain't pretty....:nono:
Grabbed a couple of handfuls of the Iowa/Penn State under 41.5 last night. Thinking you are on to something getting off the Iowa side....something smells here and it ain't pretty....:nono:
