college plays & info for 8/30-9/3....

AR182

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thanks guys....good luck to all of you also.

here is a copy of an e-mail that i received. i thought that some might find it useful...

trends and angles for the entire Week 1 card appear below.

MIAMI (Ohio) at BALL ST.

The visitor has cashed in seven of the last eight meetings in this Mid-American Conference rivalry. Ball State has 'covered' seven of its last nine as favorites. The Cardinals have dropped nine of their last 11 season openers. These teams have averaged just 39 points per game in the last 22 confrontations.

BUFFALO at RUTGERS

Buffalo has been shut out 10 times and has lost six of its last seven weekday games. Rutgers is 8-2 against the spread at home versus non-conference competition. Conversely, the Bulls have faltered in nine of their last 11 non-conference tests.

LSU at MISS ST.

LSU has won seven straight and 14 of its last 15 against Mississippi State. The Tigers had cashed nine straight against the Bulldogs until falling just short last year as 33 1/2-point favorites, 48-17. LSU has won its last three at Starkville by 42, 35 and 30 points, respectively.

KENT ST. at IOWA ST.

Kent State is 2-27-1 straight up in road openers. Iowa State has won eight straight home openers by an average score of 33-12. The Cyclones are 20-2 SU against teams from the MAC and they have won four straight against the Golden Flashes by an average margin of 22 points.

UNLV at UTAH ST.

UNLV has lost 15 straight and 17 of its last 18 on the road and failed to cash 10 of its last 12. Utah State has lost seven of its last eight at home and come up short in six of eight ATS.

UTAH at OREGON ST.

Utah has cashed 11 of its last 12 as road dogs of three points or more. The Utes have been on the low side in 10 of 11 on the road when the number was between 49 1/2 and 56. They have also slipped below the 'total' in 14 of 18 non-conference clashes.

NAVY at TEMPLE

Navy has 'covered' 19 of 22 when playing the first of back-to-back road games. The Midshipmen are 25-10 ATS on the road since 2002 and 17-10 as favorites since 2003. Temple is 13-31 ATS the first month of the season. The Owls have cashed seven of their last 10 at home.

WASHINGTON at SYRACUSE

Washington has stumbled at a 6-20-1 clip when favored and it is 3-9-1 ATS outside the Pac-10. The Huskies have also lost five straight road openers. Syracuse is 33-14 ATS under the Carrier Dome since 1999. The Orange have 'covered' 16 of their last 20 against non-conference competition.

WMU at WEST VIRGINIA

Western Michigan got the green in six of eight as dogs last season and the Broncos have cashed four of five non-conference games. West Virginia is 9-13-1 ATS at home since 2003.

ECU at VIRGINIA TECH

East Carolina is 7-1 as road dogs of six points or more. The Pirates are 10-1 ATS on grass and they have 'covered' seven straight in September. Virginia Tech has trampled ECU in the last five meetings by 20 points per game. The Hokies have won 11 straight home openers, the last three by a combined score of 146-0.

MARSHALL at MIAMI

Marshall has dropped seven straight road openers by an average of 18 points. The Thundering Herd is 16-33 ATS on the highway. Miami is 8-16 ATS the past two seasons and 5-13 as favorites. The Hurricanes have failed to cash six of eight non-conference games.

UAB at MICHIGAN ST.

UAB has 'covered' 33 of its last 50 as dogs. Michigan State has won eight straight openers in East Lansing by an average of 18 points. The Spartans were just 3-9-1 ATS at home the past two campaigns and they have dropped five of their last six as favorites.

CONNECTICUT at DUKE

Duke begins the season with the longest Division 1-A losing streak (20). The Blue Devils have dropped 11 of 12 ATS at home against non-conference foes. Connecticut is 19-8 ATS on the non-conference road. Duke has dipped 'under' at an 0-7 clip in the first month.

VIRGINIA at WYOMING

Virginia is 1-9 in its last 10 away games, losing by an average of 15 points. Wyoming has won 12 of 13 home openers by an average score of 35-14. The Cowboys will be looking to avenge an overtime loss last year at Charlottesville. Wyoming has 'covered' 10 of its past 12 as home dogs. The Cavaliers have been on the low side in nine of their last 11 on grass.

NEVADA at NEBRASKA

Nevada has lost 11 straight road openers by an average of 23 points. The Wolf Pack has cashed eight of their last nine on turf and 11 of their last 13 overall. Nebraska has won 21 straight openers in Lincoln and 'covered' 51 of 82 as home favorites.

OLE MISS at MEMPHIS

Mississippi has won five of its last seven versus Memphis, prevailing last season as three-point home favorites, 28-25. The Rebels are 1-6-1 versus non-conference rivals the past three years. The Tigers lost six of seven at home in 2006 (2-4 ATS).

IOWA at N. ILLINOIS

Iowa has faltered in six of its last seven as double-digit favorites. Northern Illinois has 'covered' 16 of its past 22 as underdogs and 14 of 20 versus non-conference foes.

HOUSTON at OREGON

Houston has lost 14 of its last 16 road openers and 20 of its last 30 against Pac-10 teams. However, the Cougars have posted an 8-1 mark as double-digit, non-conference dogs. Oregon has cashed seven of its last 10 at Autzen Stadium. The Ducks are 25-1 SU at home against non-conference opposition.

WASHINGTON ST. at WISCONSIN

Wisconsin has come away with the money in eight of its last nine outside the Big 10 and it has passed seven straight September tests ATS. The Badgers have eclipsed the total in 14 of 18 at Camp Randall Stadium when the number was between 49 1/2 and 56.

GEORGIA TECH at NOTRE DAME

Georgia Tech will be seeking its first win at South Bend since 1959. The Yellow Jackets have 'covered' three straight versus Notre Dame. They have also won three straight road openers, including a pair against ranked teams. The Irish have failed in five of six ATS when facing an opponent with revenge. Notre Dame has won 17 of its last 20 season openers.

MISSOURI vs. ILLINOIS at St. Louis

Missouri has cashed five of six versus Illinois. The Tigers have won five straight season openers by an average score of 40-16. The Illini have won six of eight against Missouri, with both losses coming at St. Louis.

UCLA at STANFORD

Stanford has 'covered' four straight against UCLA at Palo Alto. The Cardinal have come up short in their last six September tests ATS. The Bruins lost five of six on the road in 2006. They are 23-14 ATS over the past three campaigns. Stanford has lost 10 of 11 at home. Last year the Cardinal was 3-7 as an underdog and 2-7 ATS versus Pac-10 foes. Stanford has ducked 'under' in 10 of its last 11 as a home dog and in eight of nine at home against conference rivals.

WAKE FOREST at BC

Wake Forest has cashed four straight against Boston College, winning last season as four-point home dogs, 21-14. The Demon Deacons won seven of eight on the road in 2006 (6-2 ATS). The Eagles were 2-6-1 as favorites last year. They have failed to get the green in nine of their last 10 as non-conference chalk and in four of five as home favorites with revenge.

ARIZONA at BYU

Arizona has clicked in eight of its last nine as road dogs of four points or more. The Wildcats are 6-18 ATS on the road overall, but 10-4 as short-enders. BYU cashed eight of 10 as favorites last season.

ARMY vs. AKRON at Cleveland

Akron has stumbled in 10 of its last 14 when favored. The Zips have come up short in their last five season openers by an average of 24 points. Army has dropped 10 season openers in a row.

UCF at NC STATE

Central Florida has lost eight straight against Atlantic Coast Conference teams by an average score of 37-17. The Knights are 4-12 ATS outside their conference since 2002. North Carolina State is 16-28 ATS since 2003 and 7-20 as favorites over the same time frame.

BAYLOR at TCU

TCU has 'covered' three of four versus Baylor. However, the Bears have cashed three straight in Forth Worth. The Horned Frogs are 18-6 ATS the last three seasons and 9-2 as favorites.

OKLAHOMA ST at GEORGIA

Oklahoma State has lost 10 of its last 13 on the road by an average of 19 points per game. Georgia is 10-17-1 as favorites since 2004. The Bulldogs have won 25 of 27 non-conference games, with both losses coming in bowls.

CMU at KANSAS

Central Michigan has 'covered' at a prolific 12-2 clip the past two years. Kansas is 6-3 in its last nine chances as a favorite. The Jayhawks have won 11 of their last 14 at Memorial Stadium.

COLORADO ST. vs. COLORADO at Denver

Colorado has won nine of 13 against Colorado State. However, the Rams have come away with the cash in nine of 13. Eight of the last 11 series shootouts have topped the 'total'.

EMU at PITT

Eastern Michigan has failed in 18 of 23 ATS against non-conference rivals. Pittsburgh has cashed 12 of 19 as favorites. The Eagles have 'covered' 12 of 20 on the road.

PURDUE at TOLEDO

Toledo has cashed nine of its last 10 home tests in September. Purdue was 5-2 ATS on the road last year after coming up short in nine of its previous 11 on the highway. The Boilermakers are 2-6 in non-conference play since 2005 and 3-9 as favorites. The Rockets have flown 'over' in 13 of 16 at home. Purdue has headed in the opposite direction in 20 of 26 as favorites of 3 1/2 to 10.

KANSAS ST. at AUBURN

Kansas State is 1-6 as non-conference dogs of more than four points. The Wildcats are 3-11 ATS on the road the past three seasons. They have topped the 'total' in their last seven tries as road dogs.

BGSU at MINNESOTA

Minnesota has 'covered' 16 of 22 at home against non-conference foes. The Gophers are also 18-6 ATS at the Metrodome during the first month of the season. Bowling Green is 11-5-1 ATS in its last 17 games outside the MAC.

TENNESSEE at CALIFORNIA

California will have revenge in mind after losing its road opener last season to Tennessee as 2 1/2-point favorites, 35-18. The Golden Bears are just 30-48 as favorites, though they have cashed six straight when laying 3 1/2 to 10. The Volunteers are 8-3-1 as dogs since 2004 and 23-13-1 ATS away from home since 2001. California has zipped 'over' in 15 of 19 in Strawberry Canyon when the number was between 49 1/2 and 56.

NEW MEXICO at UTEP

New Mexico is 9-1-1 ATS on the road against an opponent with revenge. The Lobos beat UTEP at home last season as 9 1/2-point dogs, 26-13. However, New Mexico is only 1-6 as non-conference road favorites.

SAN JOSE ST at ARIZONA ST.

Arizona State has 'covered' 10 of 12 as non-conference home favorites. San Jose State is coming off its first winning season since 2000. The Spartans cashed nine of 12 during their magical run, including five of seven as dogs and four straight outside their conference.

IDAHO at USC

Idaho is 2-9 as dogs of 21 points or more. USC has cashed six of its last seven as non-conference favorites of 20 or more. The Vandals have crumbled in 10 of their last 13 ATS outside the WAC.
 

AR182

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adding...

oregon-15..

am not crazy about laying points on opening weekend but i think this is a good play. oregon came out flat in their bowl game vs. byu & got destroyed, so i think they will be very motivated to wipe that game out of their collective memory bank (i think that's the first time that i have used that expression..lol). also i think that the oregon stadium is a very difficult place for a new qb(houston) to make his very first start.

i see oregon winning this by at least 3 tds.

good luck.
 

AR182

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adding....

g.t.+3 (120)...

i usually don't like taking teams that are starting new qbs on the road. but i was impressed with how well bennett did in last year's bowl game vs. w. virginia.in fact i think bennett will be a major upgrade over ball, who i thought was terrible.gt also has an experienced offensive line with an underated running back...& i think they will do fine vs. a nd defense that is returning 5 players from last year's team.on the other side of the ball the nd offense is returning 4 starters from last year's team vs. an experienced gt defense, that is probably in the top 10 in the country. i think this blitzing defense will totally dominate the inexperienced offense.

good luck
 

AR182

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thanks guys appreciate it.

adding 1 more for tonight...

u 47(120) kent/isu....

a year ago the isu was atrocious offensively ( think they scored over 3 td twice last year),& with only 4 starters back for the new season,isu might struggle under their new head coach.since he is a defensive coach, i expect them to improve over last year's team.

over the last 5 games last year, kent st averaged only 8 ppg, while their defense allowed an average of 20 ppg for the entire year & return 9 starters from last year's team.

i see this game going no higher than 41 combined points.

good luck.
 

AR182

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went 3-1 on tonight's plays...

adding.....

u 50(120) uab/mich.st...

mich. st. is in the process of changing their football philosophy from a wide open offense to a grind it out offense under their new head coach. i look for them to ride ringers shoulders & try to control the line of scrimmage.

uab is also going through changes & really don't see them mounting any long drives.

here is a trend that supports this play....

play under - road teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 (UAB) - in the first month of the season, after closing out last season with 4 or more straight losses, team that had a losing record last season.

ats record is 23-3 over the last 10 seasons....88.5%

the average total posted in these games was...45.7

the average score in these games was: team 14.4....opponent 23.2 (total points scored...37.6)

over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is...13-1....92.8%

over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is...14-1....93%


good luck.
 

fletcher

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Al tcu un is very strong for this time of the year also look at un in syracuse game total is up there for teams who have no qb's.

good luck email where you got that email of trends marshall is going to get drilled in miami also. hate to go against home state team but miami has a point to make, hell lived in fl longer then wv anyway 17 years wv 19 in fl marshall won't know what hit them and wvu will do the same to them very bad blood there. let me know about that email i don't use trends but i do like to look at the info some things fit in with my work ups.

thanks
Eric
 

AR182

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hi eric....

first chance i get i'll send you an e-mail...probably be later today.

i was on the fence about the syr. under & your post pushed me...thanks.

adding....

u 45 (120) wash./ syr......

both teams are starting new qbs & think the play calling will be conservative on both sides in order to get the them acclimated.

i use a stat site to get info & they determined that wash. will gain about 330 total yards, while syracuse will gain about 287 total yards....with the scoring range for syracuse to be 13-19 points & wash.to score about an average of 23 points.

based on the above...

wash. is 16-5 (76%) under when they allow 15 to 21 points since 1992.

syracuse is 19-4 (82.6%) under when they allow 300 to 350 total yards since 1992.


good luck.
 

AR182

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thanks kramer..appreciate it.

here's another under i'm playing...

u 51(120) fiu/penn.st....

fiu has a new coach & a new qb..& believe it or not finished #28 in total defense last year.

we know about penn.st. always having a quality defense. this year they'll be breaking in new running backs...& has a very big revenge game next week vs. notre dame.

here is a trend supporting this play....

play under - home teams where the total is between 49.5 and 56 (penn st) - first month of the season, after closing out last season strong with 4 or more wins in last 5 games, with an experienced QB returning as starter.

ats record is....27-5 over the last 10 seasons.....84.4%

over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is...7-1.

over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is....16-2.


good luck.
 

AR182

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thanks thom, kramer & ba..appreciate it.

really annoyed about losing the syracuse total...greg robinson is supposed to be a defensive coach...you would think he would teach his linebackers about what i learned in sandlot football...that defenders should not over commit & try to force everything to the inside....sorry for the rant..on to the next games..lol.

so far it looks like home dogs are not doing well..so won't play wyoming..but will play another under...

u 43(120) virginia/wyoming...

3 times the virginia held opponents to less than 200 yards of offense in 2006 &with them returning 10 starters on defensive of the ball,i don't see why they can't be a top notch defense again. they permitted just 17.8 ppg and10 passing scores against some very talented teams last year.

on offense their qb had off season wrist surgery on his throwing hand & their top wide out hurt his knee in spring practice & is out.

wyoming also had a quality defense last year which ranked # 9 nationally...& they have 5 starters back from last years team, but have to replace their starting defensive front from last year.

i think virginia is just too strong along both lines for me to take wyoming..so i'll take the under & see this game to be similiar to last year's game.

good luck.

good luck
 
Last edited:

Lucy11

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Great stuff Ari! I can't cap to save my life and this helps. Good luck on today's plays!
 

AR182

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hey smitty....glad i helped you...good luck.

adding...

kan.-7(120)
u 56 nt/okla.
kansas st. +14 (120)

good luck.
 
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