college plays week # 3......
- Thread starter AR182
- Start date
adding...
under 57(120) monroe / az.st.....
monroe returns 9 starters from last year's defense & a few are supposed to have some talent, especially at the corners...while az. st. has a very good defense & has a big revenge game next week against georgia.....
good luck...
under 57(120) monroe / az.st.....
monroe returns 9 starters from last year's defense & a few are supposed to have some talent, especially at the corners...while az. st. has a very good defense & has a big revenge game next week against georgia.....
good luck...
adding....
texas-17(120)....
well known revenge spot for texas as tex. tech gave ut their only loss last year...while tex. tech is returning only 4 starters from last years offense....prior to last years win against kansas, tt lost by margins of 44,16,31,10,9 & 35 on the road against ranked teams since 2005 (0-6 ats)....ut has won 8 of the last 10 in this matchup & are allowing an average of 240 passing ypg in the last 5meetings....the visitor is 3-8 ats in the last 11...tex. tech is 4-8-1 ats in road openers (very first road start for tt qb) & 2-6 ats as an away dog.....
play on - favorites of 10.5 to 21 points (ut) - good passing team from last season - averaged 8 or more passing yards/attempt........
over the last 5 seasons the ats record for this system is.....35-11.........76.1%.....
the average line posted in these games was.....team favored by 15.7.....the average score in these games was....team 38.8, opponent 15.7......the number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 27.....60% of all games......
good luck....
texas-17(120)....
well known revenge spot for texas as tex. tech gave ut their only loss last year...while tex. tech is returning only 4 starters from last years offense....prior to last years win against kansas, tt lost by margins of 44,16,31,10,9 & 35 on the road against ranked teams since 2005 (0-6 ats)....ut has won 8 of the last 10 in this matchup & are allowing an average of 240 passing ypg in the last 5meetings....the visitor is 3-8 ats in the last 11...tex. tech is 4-8-1 ats in road openers (very first road start for tt qb) & 2-6 ats as an away dog.....
play on - favorites of 10.5 to 21 points (ut) - good passing team from last season - averaged 8 or more passing yards/attempt........
over the last 5 seasons the ats record for this system is.....35-11.........76.1%.....
the average line posted in these games was.....team favored by 15.7.....the average score in these games was....team 38.8, opponent 15.7......the number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 27.....60% of all games......
good luck....
here is a system supporting the mich. st. play....
mich. st.+11.....
the line is now nd-10...
play on - underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (mich. st) - in the first month of the season, after closing out last season with 2 or more straight losses, team that had a winning record last season.....
over the last 10 seasons the ats record for this system is......28-4......87.5%.....
The system's record this season is......4-0....
good luck...
mich. st.+11.....
the line is now nd-10...
play on - underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (mich. st) - in the first month of the season, after closing out last season with 2 or more straight losses, team that had a winning record last season.....
over the last 10 seasons the ats record for this system is......28-4......87.5%.....
The system's record this season is......4-0....
good luck...
adding....
under 45 bc / clemson....
played this last night....
play under - all teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 (bc) - after allowing 225 or less total yards in their previous game, with an inexperienced qb as starter, in the first month of the season......
over the last 5 seasons the record of this system is....43-12......78.2%.....
the average total posted in these games was......45.7....
the average score in these games was....team 21.7, opponent 18.5....total points scored....40.2...
the system's record this season is.......4-0.....100%
over the last 3 seasons the system's record is.....18-1......94.7%......
good luck...
under 45 bc / clemson....
played this last night....
play under - all teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 (bc) - after allowing 225 or less total yards in their previous game, with an inexperienced qb as starter, in the first month of the season......
over the last 5 seasons the record of this system is....43-12......78.2%.....
the average total posted in these games was......45.7....
the average score in these games was....team 21.7, opponent 18.5....total points scored....40.2...
the system's record this season is.......4-0.....100%
over the last 3 seasons the system's record is.....18-1......94.7%......
good luck...
i have decided to keep the ok st play....here is a brief writeup....
ok st-31....
ok st. is coming off their upset loss to houston last week & since this is a step down in competition for them i think this has the makings of a real behind the woodshed beating...they play grambling next.....this is rice's 3rd straight road game (3-8 ats in this role) & so far in the 2 games they have played this year, they have scored a total of 34 points & given up 99 points & have allowed an average of over 516 total yards per game.....against big 12 teams rice is 0-15 su & 0-7 ats in the last 7 games with an average score of 44-14....against ranked opponents, rice is 0-5 su/ats & have given up at least 51 points in each game....
play against - any team (rice) - poor offensive team (4.2 to 4.8 ypp) against a team with an average defense (4.8 to 5.6 ypp), after being outgained by 125 or more total yds 2 consecutive games.....
over the last 5 seasons the ats record for this system is.....38-13......74.5%....
also here is a list of the plays i have made so far this week....
af-16....
unlv-6 (130)....having 2nd thoughts....
mich. st+11....
cin+2(120).....
ok st-31...
n.ill+14(130)....
navy+7.....
miss.st.+10(115)....
middle....clemson-5(130)....b.c.+8(130)....
mid.tenn.st+7(120)....
byu-7......
nevada-3.....having 2nd thoughts.....
under 57(120) monroe / az st......
under 45 bc / clemson....
good luck...
ok st-31....
ok st. is coming off their upset loss to houston last week & since this is a step down in competition for them i think this has the makings of a real behind the woodshed beating...they play grambling next.....this is rice's 3rd straight road game (3-8 ats in this role) & so far in the 2 games they have played this year, they have scored a total of 34 points & given up 99 points & have allowed an average of over 516 total yards per game.....against big 12 teams rice is 0-15 su & 0-7 ats in the last 7 games with an average score of 44-14....against ranked opponents, rice is 0-5 su/ats & have given up at least 51 points in each game....
play against - any team (rice) - poor offensive team (4.2 to 4.8 ypp) against a team with an average defense (4.8 to 5.6 ypp), after being outgained by 125 or more total yds 2 consecutive games.....
over the last 5 seasons the ats record for this system is.....38-13......74.5%....
also here is a list of the plays i have made so far this week....
af-16....
unlv-6 (130)....having 2nd thoughts....
mich. st+11....
cin+2(120).....
ok st-31...
n.ill+14(130)....
navy+7.....
miss.st.+10(115)....
middle....clemson-5(130)....b.c.+8(130)....
mid.tenn.st+7(120)....
byu-7......
nevada-3.....having 2nd thoughts.....
under 57(120) monroe / az st......
under 45 bc / clemson....
good luck...
adding the under in the neb/vt game to my list of games........
under 52(120) neb / vt....
af-16....
unlv-6 (130)....having 2nd thoughts....
mich. st+11....
cin+2(120).....
ok st-31...
n.ill+14(130)....
navy+7.....
miss.st.+10(115)....
middle....clemson-5(130)....b.c.+8(130)....
mid.tenn.st+7(120)....
byu-7......
nevada-3.....having 2nd thoughts.....
under 57(120) monroe / az st......
under 45 bc / clemson....
good luck..
under 52(120) neb / vt....
af-16....
unlv-6 (130)....having 2nd thoughts....
mich. st+11....
cin+2(120).....
ok st-31...
n.ill+14(130)....
navy+7.....
miss.st.+10(115)....
middle....clemson-5(130)....b.c.+8(130)....
mid.tenn.st+7(120)....
byu-7......
nevada-3.....having 2nd thoughts.....
under 57(120) monroe / az st......
under 45 bc / clemson....
good luck..
here is a brief writeup for the mid. tenn. st. play....
mid.tenn.st.+7(120)....
maryland's team has returned 9 starters from last year's team & it showed in their last game because they needed ot to beat 1-aaa james madison....while mid. tenn., who upset md last year has returned 16 starters.....md is 5-16 ats as favorites, 1-5 ats vs sbc schools, while mts is 5-2 ats as a non-division dogs of 28 points or less.....
play on - underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (mts) - with 6+ more total starters returning than opponent, in the first month of the season.....
since 1992 the ats record for this system is....35-11.....76.1%.....
over the last 10 seasons the system's record is....18-5.....78%
good luck....
mid.tenn.st.+7(120)....
maryland's team has returned 9 starters from last year's team & it showed in their last game because they needed ot to beat 1-aaa james madison....while mid. tenn., who upset md last year has returned 16 starters.....md is 5-16 ats as favorites, 1-5 ats vs sbc schools, while mts is 5-2 ats as a non-division dogs of 28 points or less.....
play on - underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (mts) - with 6+ more total starters returning than opponent, in the first month of the season.....
since 1992 the ats record for this system is....35-11.....76.1%.....
over the last 10 seasons the system's record is....18-5.....78%
good luck....
thanks hawk..appreciate it.....
adding...
san jose st+18(120).....
so far this year, sjs has faced 2 very tough rush defenses in usc (ranked 5th last year) & utah (ranked 11th)...but this week they face a stanford defense who was ranked 77th last year & so far this year they are ranked 94th by giving up 176 ypg on the ground at 4.4 ypr....& that was against wash. st & wake....i think with their new qb,lescela (has impressed the coaches by having the ability of getting rid of the ball quickly) & their wideouts (who didn't play last year vs stanford) sjs should be able to keep within 3 scores...
since 1992 sjs is 14-4 ats after allowing 525 or more total yards/game over their last 2 games since 1992.....the average score was sjs 26.3, oponent 30.2....
since 1992 stanford is 3-14 ats in home games after allowing 3 points or less in the first half last game....the average score was stanford 24.7, opponent 27.3.....
so far this week i have made these plays.....
af-16....
unlv-6 (130)....having 2nd thoughts....
mich. st+11....
mid.tenn. st.+7(120)....
ok st-31....
cin.+2(120)....
navy+7....
n.ill+14(130)....
miss.st.+10(115)....
middle....clemson-5(130)....b.c.+8(130)....
mid.tenn.st+7(120)....
byu-7.....
nevada-3.....having 2nd thoughts....
under 57(120) monroe / az st....
tex.-17(120)....
under 45 bc / clemson....
under 52(120) neb / vt....
san jose st+18(120)....
good luck...
adding...
san jose st+18(120).....
so far this year, sjs has faced 2 very tough rush defenses in usc (ranked 5th last year) & utah (ranked 11th)...but this week they face a stanford defense who was ranked 77th last year & so far this year they are ranked 94th by giving up 176 ypg on the ground at 4.4 ypr....& that was against wash. st & wake....i think with their new qb,lescela (has impressed the coaches by having the ability of getting rid of the ball quickly) & their wideouts (who didn't play last year vs stanford) sjs should be able to keep within 3 scores...
since 1992 sjs is 14-4 ats after allowing 525 or more total yards/game over their last 2 games since 1992.....the average score was sjs 26.3, oponent 30.2....
since 1992 stanford is 3-14 ats in home games after allowing 3 points or less in the first half last game....the average score was stanford 24.7, opponent 27.3.....
so far this week i have made these plays.....
af-16....
unlv-6 (130)....having 2nd thoughts....
mich. st+11....
mid.tenn. st.+7(120)....
ok st-31....
cin.+2(120)....
navy+7....
n.ill+14(130)....
miss.st.+10(115)....
middle....clemson-5(130)....b.c.+8(130)....
mid.tenn.st+7(120)....
byu-7.....
nevada-3.....having 2nd thoughts....
under 57(120) monroe / az st....
tex.-17(120)....
under 45 bc / clemson....
under 52(120) neb / vt....
san jose st+18(120)....
good luck...
adding....
kansas st+13(120)...
this is a bad spot for ucla because this game vs. kan. st is sandwiched in between the big win last week at tenn. & the 3 consecutive pac 10 games that follow this game....in addition ucla will be without their starting qb, their best corner, who got hurt vs. sd st & in addition they have suspended 4 players for this game including another starting corner.....their replacement qb this week will be kraft, who neuheisel inherited from the previous regime & somebody he is clearly not comfortable with, which is the reason why neuheisel went with the rookie this year.....on the other side of the field is bill snyder trying to be kan. st savior & he inherited a team with a losing mentality...but the guy can coach & i expect to see ksu come in with a maxium effort vs. this distracted ucla team....
snyder also knows how to get his team up after a loss as he is 37-18 ats after a loss, including 18-6 ats as a dog....
last week i picked ucla & i wrote that you can't go wrong if you bet neuheisel when he is a dog (27-15 ats) & bet against him when he is a favorite (26-40-1 ats)...well this week he is a favorite & i'm betting against him....
good luck...
kansas st+13(120)...
this is a bad spot for ucla because this game vs. kan. st is sandwiched in between the big win last week at tenn. & the 3 consecutive pac 10 games that follow this game....in addition ucla will be without their starting qb, their best corner, who got hurt vs. sd st & in addition they have suspended 4 players for this game including another starting corner.....their replacement qb this week will be kraft, who neuheisel inherited from the previous regime & somebody he is clearly not comfortable with, which is the reason why neuheisel went with the rookie this year.....on the other side of the field is bill snyder trying to be kan. st savior & he inherited a team with a losing mentality...but the guy can coach & i expect to see ksu come in with a maxium effort vs. this distracted ucla team....
snyder also knows how to get his team up after a loss as he is 37-18 ats after a loss, including 18-6 ats as a dog....
last week i picked ucla & i wrote that you can't go wrong if you bet neuheisel when he is a dog (27-15 ats) & bet against him when he is a favorite (26-40-1 ats)...well this week he is a favorite & i'm betting against him....
good luck...
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Looking at K-State as well. They had numerous miscues with special teams last week.
Kraft is a turnover machine for UCLA. I believe he's a former San Diego State Aztec and he sucked at SDSU.
You have UCLA coming off a huge win, K-State coming off a devasting loss. K-State will try to run the ball and keep this game close. Points should be at a premium.
Kraft is a turnover machine for UCLA. I believe he's a former San Diego State Aztec and he sucked at SDSU.
You have UCLA coming off a huge win, K-State coming off a devasting loss. K-State will try to run the ball and keep this game close. Points should be at a premium.
Hey AR
I played a few of the same....
I was considering KSU but they are a mess....
I hate putting my $$ on shitty teams....
I'm thinking Snyder will need a few yrs to fix things and this year he's in over his head...
UCLA @ the Rosebowl as a home fav is 11-4 since 05......
No play for me
GL this week
I played a few of the same....
I was considering KSU but they are a mess....
I hate putting my $$ on shitty teams....
I'm thinking Snyder will need a few yrs to fix things and this year he's in over his head...
UCLA @ the Rosebowl as a home fav is 11-4 since 05......
No play for me
GL this week
Hey Al... I do not recall our plays/leans matching up this much in previous seasons. Of course, it would be nice if these common plays wouyld start hitting.:142smilie Either way, you are doing a great job, as usual, explaining your plays and finding excellent angles. Both KSU and SJSU writeups make great sense to me.
I predict you get it going this weekend. GL buddy:toast:
I predict you get it going this weekend. GL buddy:toast:
thanks guys...appreciate it....
hope you're right cie...i play whatever numbers come up in my system....favorite or dog it doesn't matter....
good luck...
adding....
wash.+21(130)......
we know usc is coming off of a huge road win last week vs. ohio st & now travel again but this time up the coast to wash., who they beat last year by the score of 56-0....so i wonder how focused usc will be for this game especially with all of the distractions they seem to have on a weekely basis....this week their qb may not play due to injury....
wash's new coach & dc used to be the ass't. head coach & the dc for usc & am sure they will have wash. ready for the big bad trojans..... they are also changing the mentality of these constant losers & it has shown so far this year as witnessed with wash's attitude of not backing down vs lsu...in addition wash. has a true playmaker at the qb position....
under carroll usc is 1-5 ats as conference favorites of 14 or more points & 2-7 ats in the 2nd of b2b road games & 0-4 ats in their last 4 road games in which they are a favorite....they are also 2-8 ats as a favorite of more than 7 points after playing a big 10 team....in addition he home team in this series is 4-1 ats last 5 times these two teams have played.....
play on - underdogs of 10.5 to 21 points (wash) - terrible offensive team from last season - scored 14 or less points/game, with an experienced qb returning as starter.......
since 1992 the ats record for this system is.....25-5......83.3%.....
i think usc is in for a battle.....
here is a small writeup on the navy play...
navy+7.....
last week pitt beat buffalo by a score of 54-27 but pitt scored 27 points off 4 buffalo turnovers...& for the game they were out yardaged badly by buffalo....500 total yards to 381....
i know pitt has a good d-line & beat navy the last 2years...but unlike the last 2 years, pitt does not have a bye - week.....in addition i think navy will throw the ball more on the pitt defense to loosen the defense up.....in their game against osu, navy went 9-13 for 156 yards in the air...& if they duplicate those stats, i don't see why navy can't hang with pitt....
pitt. is 1-7 ats in their last 8 as a favorite.....
navy is 11-4 ats as a road dog vs the big east...
since 1995 navy is 19-3 ats as a road dog off a win. including 17-1 ats from game 3 & on....
good luck....
wash.+21(130)......
we know usc is coming off of a huge road win last week vs. ohio st & now travel again but this time up the coast to wash., who they beat last year by the score of 56-0....so i wonder how focused usc will be for this game especially with all of the distractions they seem to have on a weekely basis....this week their qb may not play due to injury....
wash's new coach & dc used to be the ass't. head coach & the dc for usc & am sure they will have wash. ready for the big bad trojans..... they are also changing the mentality of these constant losers & it has shown so far this year as witnessed with wash's attitude of not backing down vs lsu...in addition wash. has a true playmaker at the qb position....
under carroll usc is 1-5 ats as conference favorites of 14 or more points & 2-7 ats in the 2nd of b2b road games & 0-4 ats in their last 4 road games in which they are a favorite....they are also 2-8 ats as a favorite of more than 7 points after playing a big 10 team....in addition he home team in this series is 4-1 ats last 5 times these two teams have played.....
play on - underdogs of 10.5 to 21 points (wash) - terrible offensive team from last season - scored 14 or less points/game, with an experienced qb returning as starter.......
since 1992 the ats record for this system is.....25-5......83.3%.....
i think usc is in for a battle.....
here is a small writeup on the navy play...
navy+7.....
last week pitt beat buffalo by a score of 54-27 but pitt scored 27 points off 4 buffalo turnovers...& for the game they were out yardaged badly by buffalo....500 total yards to 381....
i know pitt has a good d-line & beat navy the last 2years...but unlike the last 2 years, pitt does not have a bye - week.....in addition i think navy will throw the ball more on the pitt defense to loosen the defense up.....in their game against osu, navy went 9-13 for 156 yards in the air...& if they duplicate those stats, i don't see why navy can't hang with pitt....
pitt. is 1-7 ats in their last 8 as a favorite.....
navy is 11-4 ats as a road dog vs the big east...
since 1995 navy is 19-3 ats as a road dog off a win. including 17-1 ats from game 3 & on....
good luck....
