College predicted scores, week 6

[Agent 0659]

This is still in the works, so I advise against playing them yet. Let's watch it and see how it does and maybe we will play it next week?:shrug: It's hitting 60% in NFL. Had to wait till now for college because too high of turnover on teams to use last years scores.

WV 54
SYR 27
Line WV -27, 56 (Over)

GT 26
MAR 24
Line GT -3.5, 42 (Over)

WIS 26
ILL 28
Line ILL-2.5, 52 (Pass)

EMU 13
MICH 26
Line Mich -29.5, 45.5 (EMU, Under)

KAN 51
KST 23
Line KST -3.5, 54.5 (Kan, Over)

CMU 32
BSU 56
Line BSU -13, 67.5 (BSU, Over)

NWU 12
MSU 39
Line MSU -17, 53 (MSU)

MIA 32
UNC 13
Line MIA -7, 42 (MIA):com:

BG 32
BOS 40
Line BOS -20, 60 (BG, Over)

MIN 41
IU 56
Line IU -14, 68 (Over)

VANDY 30
AUB 19
Line AUB -8, 42.5 (VANDY, Over)

Will post the late games later....again, not playing just seeing how it does. GL

 

[Agent 0659]

NILL 45
TEM 34
Line NILL -3.5, 53 (NILL, Over)

OHIO 47
BUF 33
OHIO -3.5, 53 (OHIO, Over)

WF 26
Duke 22
WF -7.5, 47.5 (DUKE)

TCU 20
WYO 24
Line WYO -3, 40 (Pass)

LATECH 35
MISS 30
MISS -13, 54 (LATECH, Over)

UAB 19
MSST 42
MSST -18, 47 (MSST, Over)

MOH 20
KSU 48
Line KSU -9, 48 (KSU, Over)

HOU 38
ALA 36:scared :scared :scared
ALA -11, 57 (HOU, Over)

 

[lawtchan]

HOU 38
ALA 36:scared :scared :scared
ALA -11, 57 (HOU, Over)

:00hour :00hour :com: :00hour

 

[#cruncher]

Question Agent,

Comparing the 'final scores' you come up with, to the 'margin of victory' (implied by those same final scores)...have you found one to be a significant better predictor than the other. Just curious, because I dabble a little into this type of thing myself...but maybe like you, I won't really feel like I have enough games to be able to take it somewhat serious until after this weekend.

 

[Agent 0659]

Question Agent,

Comparing the 'final scores' you come up with, compared to the 'margin of victory' (implied by those same final scores)...have you found one to be a significant better predictor than the other. Just curious, because I dabble a little into this type of thing myself...but maybe like you, I won't really feel like I have enough games to be able to take it somewhat serious until after this weekend.

By this, do you mean would a 10 point differential in my predicted score be better (betting % wise) than one with a 4 point difference?

In the NFL I have found a slightly better performance from plays that have a diff. of 7 or more, but for the most part I play anything over 3 as they perform fairly equally.

One thing that does stand out as very profitable and has saved me so far is the wrong team favored. For instance it had KC beating SD last week and I had the KC ML.

 

[#cruncher]

no...but thanx for the other info. I should have been clearer. Let me try again. An example:

Say you have a predicted score of of 20 to 10 in favor of Team A....Team A ends up winning 40 to 30 (say the total line on the the game was 65).

So, in spite of the fact that your predicted total was way off, you predicted margin was right on.

I guess what I should have asked in the first place is have you found it more beneficial for sides or totals or both?

 

[Agent 0659]

I guess what I should have asked in the first place is have you found it more beneficial for sides or totals or both?

This would depend on the lines you had on the plays. For me, the record on both is almost exactly the same.

Sides 34-23-5
Totals 36-24-5

 

[#cruncher]

Thanx...that a darn good record...especially for the NFL.

 

[Agent 0659]

Thanx...that a darn good record...especially for the NFL.

Yep! I am very enthused about it.

If you have any input for home field factoring in NCAA, I would be interested. It's looking like the vast strength of schedule difference in NCAA is really going to hurt this. For instance Houston beating Bama, at Bama? I'm not buying it. Problem is Houston gets a stronger Off rating than they should because of a weak schedule, and Bama gets hurt a little by the strong schedule. This isn't nearly as much of a factor in the Pros.

 

[Handi Capper]

Good Luck buddy

go Jayhawks

check out fau I might have problem....

 

[Agent 0659]

check out fau I might have problem....

Thank Jes...and yes, you have a problem! :scared

SFU 48
FAU 17
Line SFU -17.5, 46 (SFU, OVER)

Afternoon games coming...

 

[Agent 0659]

IOWA 16
PSU 22
Line PSU -9, 37 (IOWA)

GEO 52
TEN 32
Line GEO -1.5, 56.5 (GEO, OVER)

OKL 56
TEX 32
Line -12, 56 (OKL, OVER)

NCST 18
FSU 33
Line FSU -17.5, 45.5 (PASS)

 

[Agent 0659]

IDAHO 31
SNJST 42
Line SNJST -7, 51 (SNJST, OVER)

ARI 53
ORGST 30
Line ORGST -3, 54 (ARI, OVER)

ARIST 55
WST 26
Line ARIST -8.5, 62 (ARIST, OVER)

FRESNO 31
NEV 36
Line NEV -3.5, 56.5 (OVER)

SDST 33
COLST 47
Line COLST -13, 57.5 (OVER)

VTU 19
CLE 29
CLE -5.5, 42 (CLE, OVER)

 

[Agent 0659]

WV 54
SYR 27
Line WV -27, 56 (Over)

GT 26
MAR 24
Line GT -3.5, 42 (Over)

WIS 26
ILL 28
Line ILL-2.5, 52 (Pass)

EMU 13
MICH 26
Line Mich -29.5, 45.5 (EMU, Under)

KAN 51
KST 23
Line KST -3.5, 54.5 (Kan, Over)

CMU 32
BSU 56
Line BSU -13, 67.5 (BSU, Over)

NWU 12
MSU 39
Line MSU -17, 53 (MSU)

MIA 32
UNC 13
Line MIA -7, 42 (MIA):com:

BG 32
BOS 40
Line BOS -20, 60 (BG, Over)

MIN 41
IU 56
Line IU -14, 68 (Over)

VANDY 30
AUB 19
Line AUB -8, 42.5 (VANDY, Over)

Sides: 2-5
Totals 4-4 (2 half point losses)

Definitely some issues and need to figure out a way to factor in schedule strength.

 

[Handi Capper]

Thank Jes...and yes, you have a problem! :scared

SFU 48
FAU 17
Line SFU -17.5, 46 (SFU, OVER)

yes I do have a problem....







not enuff pockets :00hour

whats up with everyone having same faggy avator
very confusing
was checking picks from my 2nd favorite poster and almost tailed smurphy, GAWD FORBID

 

[Agent 0659]

Totals for these posted games:


12-31:scared :scared :scared

Sides: 5-16
Totals: 7-15

We may have a fade here!!!!

Back to the

 

[lawtchan]

Totals for these posted games:


12-31:scared :scared :scared

Sides: 5-16
Totals: 7-15

We may have a fade here!!!!

Back to the

.

U GOT MAIL!!!!

 

[Agent 0659]

.

U GOT MAIL!!!!

Nothing there?