Common Opponents

[Friar]

Last November I tried something. Not having any luck with my picks I looked at how teams played vs common opp. I don't have exact numbers but I'd say this hit at least 75%. I took games and compared scores and added or subtracted the difference and then added or subtracted 3 whether the team was home or away then took the current line and and either added or subtracted it to the team with the number in their favor.

ex. team a 37 @ team b 30
team b 20 @ team c 10

team a -7 @ team c

team a outscored team b by 7+3(road game) their number is 10

Team c lost to team b by 10(-10) sub. 3 for a home game (-13)

the difference is team a +23-7(current line) the number for the game is team a 16

make sense?

I play games with a numer over 70

Last week

maryland -6 nc state 24-21 L ats #86
iowa -30 n. west 62-10 W ats #116
uconn -7 kent st 63-21 W ats #72
B st -27.5 Rice 49-7 W ats #92
Fl st -7.5 Gt 21-13 W ats #95
Wyo +11 BYU 31-35 W ats #124
Ucla -11.5 az 37-7 W ats #86

If anyone is interested I will post my plays each week just let me know

 

[Marra]

Looks like something worth noteing Friar-post them

The more info, the better.

 

[hellah10]

Well...

South Florida played Northern Illinois and they beat them

Bowling Green played Northern Illinois and lost

Bowling Green now plays South Florida this Saturday...???

So what would your take on that be?

 

[Friar]

having only 1 common opp. N. Ill the difference is scores would have to be over 70 which I haven't seen yet. That's why I think this seems to work, to reach a number of 70 there usually has to be at least 3 or 4 common opp. and that helps to see how teams play against equal teams.

SF 37 NI 6 difference 31 -3 sf at home #28

BG 17 @ NI 26 difference -9 +3 bg on road #-6

28 to -6 difference of sf 34 -2.5(line) and you come up with a # of SF 31.5 NO PLAY

 

[Friar]

looking at games involving the top 25 these would all qualify.

Kansas st -10.5 Nebraska #127.5
Oklahoma -35.5 Baylor #99.5
Boise St. -27 La. Tech #78
Ohio St. -8.5 Ill #86.5
Penn St. -21 Ind #92
Fl. St -31.5 N.C. #191.5
Colorado -7.5 Iowa St. #92.5
Maryland -4.5 Clemson #78.5

 

[ND2002HORNS]

Super work Friar! Continue to post this info every week. Anytime someone has an angle to share it makes this forum even better!

HORNS

 

[Friar]

the rest of the plays

Purdue -3 Mich st #114
Tol -7 W. Mich #93
Tulane -19 Army #90
N. Ill -23 W. Mich #95
Ok St -22 Kansas #78

 

[hellah10]

good god iam sooo lost with all this....

your picking all favorites here?!

 

[ToddF76]

Friar,
Have you noticed in the past that most of the plays derived from your system are favorites or is that just a coincidence from this week's selections?

 

[TORONTO-VIGILANTE]

interesting angle friar...let's see where this goes....

good luck this week...!!!

:thumb:

 

[Friar]

In the 5 or 6 weeks last year added to last week I've seen maybe 4 dogs qualify. I think what this does it finds the favorites whose line is under what it should be.

After a quick count I think there are 25 teams favored by .5 to 9.5 pts this week I came up with 5 plays.

10-19.5 13 I came up with 2
20-29.5 5 I came up with 4
30-39.5 3 I came up with 2

What this all means I have no idea!
It just seem's to work. It does seem to pick a higher percentage of favorites of 20 pts or more. Anybody know what % of these favorites usually hit?

 

[Master Capper]

How have the dogs done in your system, you said there were 4 all year?

 

[Friar]

this year there has only been 1 dog as last week was the first week I tried it this year. That was Wyo+11 against BYU. They lost the game 35-31 but did cover. I believe every dog last year also covered. The only team by name I remember was Penn State. Who knows after all this maybe they go 0 for this week. But I just thought I'd share this with everyone.

 

[TEXAS]

Just curious. I really like Maryland and Iowa this week. I noticed that Maryland fits your plan. How does Iowa score?

Thanks

 

[Friar]

Iowa scored a 57.5

 

[TEXAS]

I appreciate your efforts.

Good luck on all of your plays.

 

[Doggy]

Great stuff

Great stuff

Friar, great stuff. One question, why did you put your cut-off at 70? Thanks.

 

[Friar]

teams with a #of under 70 only seemed to hit about 50%

 

[Doggy]

Friar, what do you do if there are more than one common opponents? For example, KY and Vandy this weekend, what would be the best way to find that #?

 

[RipIt3]

Looking at the plays for this week, there are a few games where the team's favored by more than 20 points and I was wondering how these games do in your system. I'm always leary of placing a bet on a team favored that heavily, that's a lot of points to cover and a lot can happen, especially in college football. Have you thought about breaking down the lines...say...

A 1-7 point favorites have a record of ...
8-14 point favorites have a record of ...
15-21...
22-28...
29+

I would not be surprised to see a majority of losses coming in the 22+ category and if we can find this system hitting at even higher rates at certain lines, well, more power to us and especially you. Great work!