Common Opponents

[Friar]

kentucky vs vanderbilt

ken 34 @fla 41 difference -7+3(road game) new #-4
@van 17 fla 21 difference -4-3 (home game) new #-7
so for this common opp is kentucky 3

van 17 @ georgia 48 dif- 31 +3(road game)new #-28
@ken 24 georgia 52 dif- 28 -3 (home game)new #-31
vanderbilt 3

@van 14 sc 20 difference -6-3 #-9
@ken 12 sc 16 difference -4-3#-7
kentucky 2

kentucky 3
kentucky 2
vanderbilt 3=

kentucky 2-15.5(spread) moves the number to vanderbilt 13.5

 

[Doggy]

Friar, if you look at it from the other side, does a low number mean, take the dog?

 

[dawgball]

I really like this system. I would think there would be a way to be able to factor in how many common opponents there are to make a stronger argument.

Taking your two examples: UK/Vandy and Maryland/Clemson--since there are 5 common opponents for MD/Clem then the number is almost always going to be higher than for UK/Vandy with only two games to look at.

My suggestion (and I will try and work on this) is to add the number of common opponents in the formula somewhere.

I aslo like Doggy's suggestion for dog plays with low numbers.

Very interesting, Friar!:thumb:

 

[dawgball]

After thinking on this further, the higher number of games is exactly what validates the system. Disregard my previous comment.

Good luck!

 

[Friar]

i never looked at the dogs with low numbers opposite them or with the number in their favor unless the number was over 70 (ie wyoming last week) ill see if i can track them. one dog with a positive # this week was texas tech if I remember correctely it was around 20 so let's see what happens with that

 

[Friar]

plays end 8-4-1 putting 2 week total to 14-5-1, losing 2 plays by a total of 2.5 pts. will be back later next week with plays.

 

[ranson]

Friar is the Man!

Friar is the Man!

Thanks so much for sharing your system. I'll look forward to seeing it this week.