Comparing Moneylines..and Square Books

[Four Horsemen]

What book do you consider a square book and shades ML? I know Greek and CRIS are real sharp!

Does anyone have any success with watching ML which are so called heavy and ones which are light?

Thanks

Nice forum and very friendly!

FH

 

[Four Horsemen]

Guess there's no help in this forum...

 

[JBBrown2]

yes those are both real sharp. betus is another that I like and yes that is always a trend to conisder before bettting a game IMO. SDST was light yesterday and won easily. Today take a look at Baylor, Maryland and Auburn.

gl to ya
JB

 

[Four Horsemen]

JBBrown,

What do you consider light? Do you compare a book like betus to say Bodog?

I've heard people have success at this but don't really understand it, any help you could give me would be great.

Thanks for the reply and the info on today's games!

FH

 

[JBBrown2]

well here is my chart....i dont mess with anything over 7 in basketball and normally lines of 1 or 1.5 do nothing for you but if the moneyline is less than the line listed here for the favorite then the line is light and you take the dog if it is more than you supposedly take the fav but I only do the dogs. This is just one parameter and you should be very careful. Also lines and moneylines will move all day so I try and wait till right up till tipoff to make a decision. I like for it to be off 10-15 for lines 2 thru 4.5 and 20-30 for 5-7. The more off it is the stronger I look at it.

-2 ----- -130
-2.5 ----- -140
-3 -------- -155
-3.5 ------- -175
-4 -------- -190
-4.5 ------- -210
-5 --------- -220
-5.5 -------- -240
-6 ---------- -270
-6.5 --------- -300
-7 ----------- -330

that should get you started. Also look for public % on fav when you get a light moneyline. That normally points to upset.

 

[Four Horsemen]

Thanks JBB, exactly what I was looking for.

When you say to be very careful, what pitfalls have you experienced that could help me?

Good Luck today!

 

[JBBrown2]

im just saying that it is still gambling and there are no guarantees. Don't think that something is off 50 light and it is a for sure winner. Some people think these systems/ideas are perfect and by no means are they but just another tool to use to pick winners or try to for that matter.

I've done well with the following

A light ML
A line that is going the wrong way ie Fave dropping with public on the fave
A home team

put all those three together and you normally get winners

 

[JBBrown2]

Ohio St ended up 15-25 light depending on your source so we'll see how it turns out. Up 1 at half

 

[Four Horsemen]

Nice call on OSU!

What do you think about Ten/Ala game?

 

[JBBrown2]

tough call....if the "public" wasn all over Tenn I'd like it but thats not the case. My numbers have them winning and the line is 30 light based on my sources. Normally with a line of 7 I like to see a -7 -290 but if I did anything it would be tatke the tide. Still watching and waiting though. Line seems to have jumped 1/2 point within last few minutes which also scares me.

JB

 

[Four Horsemen]

Tenn line seems to be steady @ 7 for the most part. See a couple 7.5. I check SBR lines which has all the major books.

What about Wake? 20 light and 76% on Wake.


Do you use this at all for the NBA?

Thanks J!

 

[JBBrown2]

yep your right....so id look at maryland for sure

yea NBA is a bit different but I can get you that. I'll have to find my sheet. I have them memorized on what i look for but i can't remember what they should be

 

[Four Horsemen]

Thanks for the reply and if you would share your NBA sheet, I'd appreciate it.

I wouldn't mind working on watching ML's together..

 

[Four Horsemen]

I think UCLA/USC game is one to watch JB

UCLA -6.5 ML 275 and 76% on UCLA

Trojans could be a play... 11:30pm EST start..

 

[JBBrown2]

yea

nova was -4.5 -185 pretty big there

i was away from the house and couldn't let you know. see how that one plays out

 

[Four Horsemen]

I played Nova... looking good @ the half.

If I used the above ML I would have wagered on the Chicago Bulls + 3.5 and Indiana + 5.5.

Thanks JB for sharing this

 

[JBBrown2]

here is the nba

-2 -135
-2.5 -145
-3 -155
-3.5 -175
-4 -200
-4.5 -220
-5 -220
-5.5 -240
-6 -270
-6.5 -300
-7 -330
-7.5/8/8.5 -360

gl
let me know if you find any good trends

 

[Four Horsemen]

Thanks for the chart...

NBA: NJ is 30 light and 70% is on Portland tonight...

Same rules apply I'm assuming....

 

[JCoverS]

Looks like this thread deserves a bump. No guarantees in sports betting, but the bet against a "light" ML fave angle did pretty well yesterday. Helped me pull the trigger on a late winner last night in USC. Thanks for the charts and excellent insight JB. Also, appreciate Four Horsemen's contributions here.

-JC

 

[EagleGreen]

Hey JB, so if I am understanding this correctly I am seeing LSU -3.5 -165. Based on your chart above that would be considered light ML? Just trying to understand this correctly. Thanks