Comparing Moneylines..and Square Books

[JBBrown2]

early looks

Tenn -4.5 -180
Purdue -3.5 -165

keep an eye on these

maybe even LSU -3.5 -170

so if these hold would do plays on

Auburn
Ill
Miss St

 

[JBBrown2]

that would be correct eagle. For -3.5 lines I look for a -160 or -155 for big plays but normally will play it if it is -165 and the other things i look at look good.

 

[EagleGreen]

thanks for the info JB! Nice hit on OHST yesterday as I took a bath on all my top picks! I was already looking at AUB, TEMPL, and ILL prior to viewing this thread!

 

[KotysDad]

JB...

Interesting thread but I'd like to ask a question about this kind of handicapping.

I understand this should be one of many parameters to consider when betting a game, so let me ask you about the total since I dont see it mentioned, unless I missed it.

Let's say 2 games have a spread of -3.5. One game has a total of 100, the other 200. I'll use extreme cases just to make a point here.

In the higher total, the points are almost irrelevent, whereas in the lower total point are of more value.

You would expect to see a higher moneyline on the favorite of 3.5 total 100 as opposed to the favorite of 3.5 total 200. I mean as the total goes up, the moneyline should start to approach even money.

Even more extreme, consider a 3.5-point favorite with a total of 10...I know really extreme but it's to make a point. This team is much more likely to win given that every point is more valuable in a game expected to be this low scoring.

So I guess my question is...when you see a game that is "light' on the moneyline, shouldnt you also consider the total.

I guess another way to ask my question is...shouldnt your chart have a 3rd column for a total.........e.g.

-3.5 -175 total 150

A "light" moneyline of -160 may not really be light if the total for that game were say....165.

Does this make sense? Not sure if I explained it well.

 

[JBBrown2]

i somewhat see you thought but I have done well with keeping it simple. Maybe you could look into that. I have come up with these charts and use them in BB and FB and they work for me along with other things I look at. Like I have said before it is by no means perfect or even close to perfect but all it does is point out teams vegas thinks can win but are not willing to lower the line. Some win and some don't. But you do have a point and it may be valid. Let me know if you find something. I personally have never noticed that big of a difference if you include the total. If the line is -3.5 -155 I play the dog, if it is -3.5 -175 I don't. I have thresholds for what i look for. Here is a general list of what a line/ml should be for me to consider it a play based on this system.

-2 -120 and lower
-2.5 -130 and lower
-3 -145 and lower
-3.5 -160 and lower
-4 -170 and lower
-4.5 -185 and lower
-5 -190 and lower
-5.5 -210 and lower
-6 -220 and lower
-6.5 -250 and lower
-7 -290 and lower

if it fits any of those above then it gets my attention. if the public is heavy on the fav then i like it more. if the dog is at home even better. then there are 3 or so other things I look at as far as the match-up goes.

gl
JB

 

[T OFF]

APPRECIATE THE INFO JB

APPRECIATE THE INFO JB

JB MLINES JUST WENT UP AT BETUS

ON MISS STATE AND ILLINOIS

AS I WAS PALCEING MY BETS

THIS STILL A GOOD SIGN I HOPE

 

[KotysDad]

JB..

Thanks for the reply. I'm with ya here. College hoops totals have a relatively small range of values, usually between 120-160 for the most part.....

A light line probably is just that, light...the totals wont vary enough to make a person think the light line is causal.


p.s. I do want to write your numbers down and keep them for reference when looking at games. Always good to have another way to analyze games. Thanks for sharing.

 

[JBBrown2]

miss st comes in and when it closed it was -3.5 -165 on my book

tenn -4.5 -200 right now.....not impressive but i like auburn anyway

purdue -3.5 -165 right now....will wait

 

[JBBrown2]

tenn just went to -4.5 -185

id be on auburn big based on this.....guess we'll see

 

[Four Horsemen]

JB

Where do you check your lines?

Thanks and GL!

 

[JBBrown2]

greek and betus

baylor looks good

-7 -270 at betus

 

[Four Horsemen]

Thanks for the reply...

71% on Mizzou.....

Another site... 68% on Mizzou

 

[JCoverS]

Hey JB and Four,

I've been looking at two and would like to get your opinions. I'm showing Louisville -7.5 and -320 ML, isn't this about 40 cents "light" making Cuse a big play? Also, in the SWAC Ala St. is -3.5 and -165 making Jackson St. worth a look. What do you guys think?

-JC

 

[Four Horsemen]

JCover

All I can tell you is what JB has posted here, he's the brains behind this..

He doesn't play anything above 7, so 7.5 is out of the question.

As for the Alabama St it's light, but I'd like to see it 15 light before I pull the trigger.

2 sites I check for pub % have 93% on ALA with 2088 bets placed. The other site has 61% on ALA with 6421 bets placed.

So, it's something to watch, and has potential. If the dogs can pull some more upsets, look for the Joes to hit ALA and it could be a play.'

FH

 

[JCoverS]

Thanks for the response. I might try Baylor at the half, since I missed JB's post on the Bears prior to tipoff. I'll lay off Cuse and Jackson St. for now, hoping to hear JB's opinion first.

-JC

 

[Four Horsemen]

I'm not saying lay off Ala State, they very well could be a play, it's early and ML move...

I am saying to stay off Syracuse unless the line drops to 7. Those are the rules.

GL with Baylor!

 

[JBBrown2]

well baylor flopped but like i said win some lose some.

as far as the two you are mentioning i'd leave them alone. unless you see a -3.5 -160 i wouldn't mess with such small game. Syracuse should be out of gas but they have been playing with heart so you never know. just keep an eye on the lines and ml until tipoff

JB

 

[JBBrown2]

i have loui -7.5 -355 which is actually almost heavy so i wouldn't touch this game

 

[JBBrown2]

like the bulls in NBA though

 

[Four Horsemen]

New Orleans was -2 -135 @ Greek
Betus -2.5 -130 damn I have to start using that site.

How did I miss this?

thanks JB