the big question on this game... which team's punt returner will catch a punt inside the 5, costing his team a chance to win and costing smitty money? ok, ok, i gotta let it go. effing punt returners.
pitt (-3.5) 1 unit. the sad thing is, i'll watch a lot more of this crap fest than i will of the nfl games. smu is by far the more logical choice. pitt is thoroughly mediocre and they got fucked by that piece of shit graham. how much will they care about the compass bowl (the what?)? but smu is even worse. at least last year, they had a very good offense. this year? not so much. they dropped their last 6 games of the season ATS, averaging 18 points/game during that stretch. if you take out the 45 they scored against tulane, they averaged 12 points/game the other 5 games. and their 3 road games in that run? they scored a TOTAL of 17 points. that's right, their last 3 games away from home, they scored all of 17 points. at least you could say the 6-week break won't disrupt their rhythm on offense. the pittsburgh defense might only have to walk out onto the field to hold smu to 10 points. oh, and smu is dead last in the country in TO margin. they turned the ball over 31 times this season and only forced 14 TOs. these games tend to hinge on TOs, so i like pitt's chances. or, more accurately, i really DON'T like smu's chances.
as much as i hate laying points with this pitt team, i think the stronger play is...
under (46) 2 units. no surprise here. this game "features" 2 qbs who each threw exactly the same number of tds as INTs. just about the only way this game goes over is if a few of those INTs are deep in their own territory. although both qbs have to be hopeful, as these two defenses combined to only pick off 13 passes this year. maybe the d backs get tired of all the INTs they get in practice against their starting qbs. :shrug: anyway, what's the over/under for defensive tds? 1.5? i'll take the over as a hedge.
pitt (-3.5) 1 unit. the sad thing is, i'll watch a lot more of this crap fest than i will of the nfl games. smu is by far the more logical choice. pitt is thoroughly mediocre and they got fucked by that piece of shit graham. how much will they care about the compass bowl (the what?)? but smu is even worse. at least last year, they had a very good offense. this year? not so much. they dropped their last 6 games of the season ATS, averaging 18 points/game during that stretch. if you take out the 45 they scored against tulane, they averaged 12 points/game the other 5 games. and their 3 road games in that run? they scored a TOTAL of 17 points. that's right, their last 3 games away from home, they scored all of 17 points. at least you could say the 6-week break won't disrupt their rhythm on offense. the pittsburgh defense might only have to walk out onto the field to hold smu to 10 points. oh, and smu is dead last in the country in TO margin. they turned the ball over 31 times this season and only forced 14 TOs. these games tend to hinge on TOs, so i like pitt's chances. or, more accurately, i really DON'T like smu's chances.
as much as i hate laying points with this pitt team, i think the stronger play is...
under (46) 2 units. no surprise here. this game "features" 2 qbs who each threw exactly the same number of tds as INTs. just about the only way this game goes over is if a few of those INTs are deep in their own territory. although both qbs have to be hopeful, as these two defenses combined to only pick off 13 passes this year. maybe the d backs get tired of all the INTs they get in practice against their starting qbs. :shrug: anyway, what's the over/under for defensive tds? 1.5? i'll take the over as a hedge.
