TRENDS = Events in the past that help predict the future
I have put together similar ?cheat? sheets for myself the last couple of seasons and find it easier to have them all handy rather than flip through the various football mags each week.
I?ve tried to include trends that I find relative (but what is relative?) and have used Phil Steele, StatFox and Marc Lawrence mags for these ?cheat? sheets.
The general trends are more or less at the top of each team?s list and then I?ve tried to list the trends in chronological order for each team?s schedule.
All the stats are against the spread, unless otherwise noted.
ARMY
11-2 as RD > 21.5 pts
5-17 after bye (E Car, Navy)
2-16 as fave > 7
12-5 season open (Louis)
Hou series vis 5-1
9-2 in 2nd BB road (Conn, E Car)
0-8 vs non-conf
2-6 before bye (S Fla, UAB)
6-0 before A Force (E Car); E Car series vis 6-1
A Force series host 15-5
3-15 final road ? not Navy (Tulane)
0-6 final home (UAB); 1-7 before Navy
CINCINNATI
15-4 vs teams that outscore opp by > 10 ppg
25-1 when allow less < 14 pts
8-2 as RD
11-2 non-conf road
8-0 as HD > 4; 11-2 as DD HD
2-9 as RF > 2
5-1 vs Big 10
Miami, Oh series dog 7-3
9-4 vs E Car; 1-7 conf road open; series vis 2-11
Memph series vis 6-2
9-2 after bye (Memph, S Fla); 8-0 dog after bye
10-5 in 2nd of BB home (TCU)
S Miss series dog 6-1; series vis 5-2; 12-5 off BB home
1-5 vs Louis; 6-2 final road
EAST CAROLINA
4-18 as HD
11-2 as RD < 7
19-8-3 as DD RD
10-2 as RD < 6
4-8-1 vs Big East
1-9 first line home (Wake)
3-13 after bye (Cinc, S Miss)
Cinc series host 11-2
1-6-1 vs S Miss
3-12 when fave >14
18-7-2 in 2nd of BB road
9-3 vs Memph
HOUSTON
15-7 vs poor offence (avg < 4.5 ypp)
2-9 off loss < 6
6-21 off conf road loss
4-14 as conf host
2-8 as conf fave > 2
2-8 as DD fave
1-12 as RD 10 to 30 pts
5-20 in 1st line home (Army)
3-10 in 1st of BB home (Army, Tulane)
9-5 vs Rice
4-13-2 in 2nd of BB road (Okla, S Miss)
5-14 in home open (Army); series vis 5-1
2-9 before bye (S Miss)
4-14 vs TCU; 14-7 after bye; 7-1 road off bye
4-9 in final road (UAB)
9-18 in final home (Louis)
LOUISVILLE
2-9 vs good pass def (allow < 150 ypg)
5-11 as HF < 7
6-17 off conf loss
12-20 off road loss
12-6 as dog
9-4 as RF
11-5 in conf road
10-1 vs ACC (N Car, Miami Fla)
2-10 off 1st SU loss
2-10 in home open (Kentucky)
9-4 in road open (Army)
5-1 before bye (E Car, S Fla)
Memph series fave 1-10; 4-9 vs Memph
Houston SU winner 6-1; 5-1 before Cincy
Cinc series fave 6-1; 5-1 in final home
MEMPHIS
11-2 vs good offence (score > 31 ppg)
7-1 vs good team (win pct > 75 %)
13-22 as HF (1-4 L yr)
10-4 as HD
UAB series dog 5-0
7-1 conf home open (Hou)
11-2 vs Tulane
7-1 after bye (Tulane, Louis)
Cinc series vis 6-2; 13-6 on turf
Louis series fave 1-10
2-13 vs S Miss; 1-10 final home; series dog 1-9
3-9 vs E Car
SOUTH FLORIDA
16-9 since ?92
11-4 non-conf
9-4 off road game
SOUTHERN MISS
12-4 vs poor defence (allow > 31 ppg)
3-8 vs good run defence (allow < 90 ypg)
12-2 after 2 or more SU losses
29-9 off game as RD
6-0 as single digit fave
1-10 vs non-conf
12-3 as HF > 14
2-14-1 road off conf game
2-7 as RD; 9-3 road open (Neb)
Tulane series host 7-2
1-11-1 in 2nd of BB road (S Fla, TCU)
Houston series host 5-1
1-6 vs Alabama
E Car series vis 10-3-1; 1-7 before bye
2-5 vs Cinc
11-1 vs Memph; series dog 1-9
3-6 in final road (TCU)
6-1 in final home (UAB)
TCU
40-9 when score > 28 pts
13-6 off DD road win
16-8 as HF
7-12-1 as RF
10-1 non-conf dog
1-11 as dog < 4
8-2 season open (N?Westrn)
SMU series vis 16-6
3-8 vs Tex Tech
3-9 in conf open (S Fla)
8-3 after bye (UAB, S Miss)
12-3 vs Hou; possible over
7-3 in final road (Louis)
0-7 vs Tulane; 4-1 final home
TULANE
4-13 off loss < 6 pts
11-20 as dog 3.5 to 10 pts
11-21 as HD
13-22 vs team with win record
5-11 in non-conf
12-3 in road open (Miss St); 1-5 vs Miss St
3-7 vs Louis
S Miss series host 7-2
15-5 before bye (S Miss, Army)
4-11-1 after bye (E Car, TCU)
1-8-1 at Memph
2-9 vs Navy
Army series host 6-2; 2-10 final home
7-0 vs TCU; 6-1-1 in reg season finale; series fave 1-7
UAB
1-6 vs poor defence (allow > 34 ppg)
9-2 vs team outscore opp by >10 ppg
9-3 as HD
26-12 as dog
4-11 as fave
9-3 as DD RD
16-9-1 off SU loss
14-3-1 as conf dog < 18
5-0-1 after bye (Fla St, S Fla)
Memph series dog 5-1
Cinc series dog 5-1
I have put together similar ?cheat? sheets for myself the last couple of seasons and find it easier to have them all handy rather than flip through the various football mags each week.
I?ve tried to include trends that I find relative (but what is relative?) and have used Phil Steele, StatFox and Marc Lawrence mags for these ?cheat? sheets.
The general trends are more or less at the top of each team?s list and then I?ve tried to list the trends in chronological order for each team?s schedule.
All the stats are against the spread, unless otherwise noted.
ARMY
11-2 as RD > 21.5 pts
5-17 after bye (E Car, Navy)
2-16 as fave > 7
12-5 season open (Louis)
Hou series vis 5-1
9-2 in 2nd BB road (Conn, E Car)
0-8 vs non-conf
2-6 before bye (S Fla, UAB)
6-0 before A Force (E Car); E Car series vis 6-1
A Force series host 15-5
3-15 final road ? not Navy (Tulane)
0-6 final home (UAB); 1-7 before Navy
CINCINNATI
15-4 vs teams that outscore opp by > 10 ppg
25-1 when allow less < 14 pts
8-2 as RD
11-2 non-conf road
8-0 as HD > 4; 11-2 as DD HD
2-9 as RF > 2
5-1 vs Big 10
Miami, Oh series dog 7-3
9-4 vs E Car; 1-7 conf road open; series vis 2-11
Memph series vis 6-2
9-2 after bye (Memph, S Fla); 8-0 dog after bye
10-5 in 2nd of BB home (TCU)
S Miss series dog 6-1; series vis 5-2; 12-5 off BB home
1-5 vs Louis; 6-2 final road
EAST CAROLINA
4-18 as HD
11-2 as RD < 7
19-8-3 as DD RD
10-2 as RD < 6
4-8-1 vs Big East
1-9 first line home (Wake)
3-13 after bye (Cinc, S Miss)
Cinc series host 11-2
1-6-1 vs S Miss
3-12 when fave >14
18-7-2 in 2nd of BB road
9-3 vs Memph
HOUSTON
15-7 vs poor offence (avg < 4.5 ypp)
2-9 off loss < 6
6-21 off conf road loss
4-14 as conf host
2-8 as conf fave > 2
2-8 as DD fave
1-12 as RD 10 to 30 pts
5-20 in 1st line home (Army)
3-10 in 1st of BB home (Army, Tulane)
9-5 vs Rice
4-13-2 in 2nd of BB road (Okla, S Miss)
5-14 in home open (Army); series vis 5-1
2-9 before bye (S Miss)
4-14 vs TCU; 14-7 after bye; 7-1 road off bye
4-9 in final road (UAB)
9-18 in final home (Louis)
LOUISVILLE
2-9 vs good pass def (allow < 150 ypg)
5-11 as HF < 7
6-17 off conf loss
12-20 off road loss
12-6 as dog
9-4 as RF
11-5 in conf road
10-1 vs ACC (N Car, Miami Fla)
2-10 off 1st SU loss
2-10 in home open (Kentucky)
9-4 in road open (Army)
5-1 before bye (E Car, S Fla)
Memph series fave 1-10; 4-9 vs Memph
Houston SU winner 6-1; 5-1 before Cincy
Cinc series fave 6-1; 5-1 in final home
MEMPHIS
11-2 vs good offence (score > 31 ppg)
7-1 vs good team (win pct > 75 %)
13-22 as HF (1-4 L yr)
10-4 as HD
UAB series dog 5-0
7-1 conf home open (Hou)
11-2 vs Tulane
7-1 after bye (Tulane, Louis)
Cinc series vis 6-2; 13-6 on turf
Louis series fave 1-10
2-13 vs S Miss; 1-10 final home; series dog 1-9
3-9 vs E Car
SOUTH FLORIDA
16-9 since ?92
11-4 non-conf
9-4 off road game
SOUTHERN MISS
12-4 vs poor defence (allow > 31 ppg)
3-8 vs good run defence (allow < 90 ypg)
12-2 after 2 or more SU losses
29-9 off game as RD
6-0 as single digit fave
1-10 vs non-conf
12-3 as HF > 14
2-14-1 road off conf game
2-7 as RD; 9-3 road open (Neb)
Tulane series host 7-2
1-11-1 in 2nd of BB road (S Fla, TCU)
Houston series host 5-1
1-6 vs Alabama
E Car series vis 10-3-1; 1-7 before bye
2-5 vs Cinc
11-1 vs Memph; series dog 1-9
3-6 in final road (TCU)
6-1 in final home (UAB)
TCU
40-9 when score > 28 pts
13-6 off DD road win
16-8 as HF
7-12-1 as RF
10-1 non-conf dog
1-11 as dog < 4
8-2 season open (N?Westrn)
SMU series vis 16-6
3-8 vs Tex Tech
3-9 in conf open (S Fla)
8-3 after bye (UAB, S Miss)
12-3 vs Hou; possible over
7-3 in final road (Louis)
0-7 vs Tulane; 4-1 final home
TULANE
4-13 off loss < 6 pts
11-20 as dog 3.5 to 10 pts
11-21 as HD
13-22 vs team with win record
5-11 in non-conf
12-3 in road open (Miss St); 1-5 vs Miss St
3-7 vs Louis
S Miss series host 7-2
15-5 before bye (S Miss, Army)
4-11-1 after bye (E Car, TCU)
1-8-1 at Memph
2-9 vs Navy
Army series host 6-2; 2-10 final home
7-0 vs TCU; 6-1-1 in reg season finale; series fave 1-7
UAB
1-6 vs poor defence (allow > 34 ppg)
9-2 vs team outscore opp by >10 ppg
9-3 as HD
26-12 as dog
4-11 as fave
9-3 as DD RD
16-9-1 off SU loss
14-3-1 as conf dog < 18
5-0-1 after bye (Fla St, S Fla)
Memph series dog 5-1
Cinc series dog 5-1
