Grizzlies-Spurs
There are many elements to a winner. Talent, hard work, perseverance, belief, and resilience are a few characterizations that come to mind. Winners in any walk of life also need a little luck to get them to the top. Both the Spurs and Grizzlies have played great games in the playoffs, but they have also had good fortune along the way. The Grizzlies benefitted from playing a Clipper?s squad that was over reliant on one player during clutch time, offensively uncreative and stagnant, and had a big man who was hurt mid-series. Then they played a Thunder team that was completely ineffective offensively due to missing their super-star Westbrook. Even though they beat the Thunder 4-1, every game was within 5 points in the last five minutes, and without a few lucky bounces, the games could have gone either way. While they won the series, it was not in a dominant fashion, and the average margin of victory was only 4 points. The Spurs played a completely depleted Laker?s team in the first round. In the second round they faced the Warriors, who came out super-strong, but ran out of gas down the stretch. Their star Curry never seemed to recover after playing over 50 minutes in the first game, and then he went on to tweak his ankle again. These little breaks may not have decided these series, but they certainly contributed. The winner of this series may well come down to a little luck.
There are a few key personnel match ups. The point guard position is perhaps the most intriguing. Conley is one of the more under-rated point guards in the league. He has been the motor to make this team go. His basketball IQ is one of the best in the league. The Grizzlies have averaged only 9.7 turnovers in the postseason, even with playing the Clippers, who were the best team in the league this season in forcing turnovers. They have been adept at getting to the free throw line, attempting 31.6 per game, which is above the regular season average of any team. As the main ball handler, Conley has a huge part in this success. He knows how to feed his post-players with perfect passes, and he switches his movement off screens in an expert manner. Conley is ambidextrous, and this makes him a chameleon offensively, as he can really disguise his movements. His ability to change speeds is top-notch. He has averaged 7.6 assists and only 1.9 turnovers during the postseason, while also scoring 17.6 points. While Parker started his season with MVP-like qualities, he has not been the same since his ankle injury. The Spurs were able to overcome his inconsistent play against the Warriors, but they can?t afford a poor outing from him against this Grizzlies team. In the two losses against the Warriors, Parker shot 14% lower than his regular season average from the field. With Memphis having such a strong front court, they need Parker to play outstanding consistently.
Both the Spurs and Grizzlies boast some of the best big players in the league. Their front courts are ranked fifth and seventh respectively this season, in terms of net efficiency. Inside, Randolph is a beast and he has been crucial to the success of the Grizzlies in this post-season. He is averaging 19.7 points per game, 9.3 rebounds, while shooting 51.2% from the field, and during five of these games he was guarded by the runner-up for defensive player of the year in Ibaka. He is one of those rare players that combines brute strength with excellent footwork and a great touch on the ball. This allows him versatility on the floor. He can net fall-away jump shots and also finish strong in the paint. He will be guarded most of the time by 6'11" and 240 pound Splitter, who did a good job on Randolph during the regular season, through actually limiting his shot attempts, not fouling, and keeping him off the offensive glass. When Splitter was not on the floor, Randolph grabbed 17.3% of the available offensive rebounds, but when Splitter was playing, Randolph?s offensive rebounding rate decreased to 8.6%. The only way to play Randolph is to be super-physical with him, and Splitter manages to constantly keep his big body on him. Tony Allen said it best about Randolph: ?He?s the backyard bully. Welcome to the Z block. He?s just a monster down there. He?s a load.? Splitter is an important component to this Spurs team on defense, and he only played in half the games the last time these two teams met in the 2011 post-season. He could be a major difference maker in this game, if he can stay out of foul trouble and effectively guard Randolph. While the Spurs now boast a stronger front line than they did in the 2011 playoffs, they still have small-ball lineups at times, and this is where the Grizzlies can take full advantage. Splitter is just a few games back from an injury, and his stamina and time on the court will be crucial for the Spurs.
The match-up between Gasol and Duncan will be a battle. Gasol is the defensive player of the year, an up-and-coming star who is one of the best centers in the league. Duncan is a wily battle-tested vet, who is having one of his best seasons in years, but has struggled at times in this post-season. But, he is still as solid and fundamental a players as can be found in the league. Gasol is having a great post-season, averaging 18.3 points and 7.9 rebounds. "Their bread and butter is inside with Marc and Zach," Duncan said. "And they're going to throw it in there and those guys are going to bang that board, and that's going to be the key for us if we wanna win this series is try to control the inside."
The battle inside will really be a true test for both teams. Per nba.com, the Spurs are the second best in the league in terms of field goal percentage allowed within the non-restricted area of the paint, allowing opponents only 35.6%, while the Grizzlies are the best team in the league in shots in this area. The Spurs are a very good defensive team overall, and they have improved their defensive efficiency from 11th in the 2011 playoffs when these teams last met, to 3rd this season. They are very good at guarding the paint and the three point line, instead allowing teams the worst-percentage shot in the midrange two. This is actually not bad for the Grizzlies, as they do not shoot many threes, and their bigs are not afraid to shoot from midrange. This postseason, Gasol has the fifth most midrange field goal attempts of any player, and he is shooting a respectable 37.2% from this range. The Grizzlies will have to knock down their midrange shots to keep their offense on pace with the Spurs.
The Grizzlies are not characterized as a great offensive team. While they struggled with offensive efficiency in the regular season, they have become much more effective since the Gay trade, and their offense has jumped to number five in the league during this post-season, which is impressive since they have faced two top ten defenses so far. They played at the slowest pace of any team this season, so their total point output is not impressive, but they have still managed to be very efficient while playing their style of basketball. But this team?s calling card is defense. They are the second most efficient team defensively in the league over the course of the season. They have the ability to disrupt offenses, even the best and most polished ones like the Spurs. They limit corner threes and they were the fourth best team guarding the paint this season in terms of points allowed. While the Grizzlies do prefer to pack the paint and take away the highest percentage baskets, they are also sixth in the league in guarding the three point line as far as attempts allowed, and second in the league in field goal percentage allowed from beyond the arc. The Warriors could not figure out how to stop the high screens that the Spurs ran, but the Grizzlies will fight around screens and be able to stymie the efficiency of these plays. The Spurs are masterful at spacing and passing. They led the league in assists per game this season, but Memphis is the fourth best team at limiting opponents? assists. The Grizzlies need to keep Parker out of the paint and make him shoot. Duncan and Diaw are exceptional passers for big men, but the Spur?s outside shooters in Green, Leonard, Parker, and Ginobili will have to knock down shots early and often in order to effectively spread the floor. The role players will have to be big for both teams, but especially for the Spurs. Green?s performances this season have coincided with the success of the Spurs. In wins this season he shot 48.7% from the field and 47.9% from beyond the arc. In losses he shot 35.5% and 31.2% from beyond the arc. The Grizzlies held Green to his worst games of the season, holding him to just 28% from the field and 22.2% from beyond the arc.
There are emotional components to every basketball team and game. Sometimes it is easy to forget that these incredible athletes are still human beings. The Spurs are a twilight team. Their window for capturing a title with their current nucleus is fading, and the players know it. The Grizzlies are a super hot team right now. Their performance so far in the playoffs may be the most impressive of any team. They are super determined and tough minded. They did not waver after going down 0-2 to the Clippers. They played two of the biggest superstars in the league in Paul and Durant, and still controlled the pace and style of the game. Their intangibles are strong and peaking at just the right time.
This series is going to be close. Either team could come out victorious. The final tipping point will be health. The western conference playoffs was filled with quality teams, but ultimately the team with the better health has won every match-up, with the exception of the Thunder-Rockets series. The NBA is an endurance sport. Both of these teams have played over 90 games. In a super-physical series that could go a full seven games, wear and tear can really hurt your chances. The Spurs have been more injury-plagued this season. Parker has not been consistently as impressive in the post-season as he was early in the season. Beyond his ankle, he now has the calf injury. Leonard also is struggling with jumper?s knee. Splitter is just a few games back from injury, and Ginobili has not been his usual solid self since his return from injury. In a super physical grinding series, nagging injuries will come into play.
To get to the western conference finals, the Grizzlies were able to shut down two teams that were heavily star dependent, and now they will be asked to shut down a team with one of the best systems in the league, and I think they are up to the task. "It's not going to be pretty," Duncan said. "Sorry. It's just not going to be. It's going to be two teams trying to impose wills on each other. Two very well-coached, good executing, tough-minded, defensive teams. And that's just how the series is going to go." Ugly is exactly what the rough, tough Grizzlies want. They may not make it look pretty, but they will outwork you. They will take the most beautiful basketball art, and cover it up with the street-ball grind.
My prediction: Grizzlies in 7
