Pacers-Heat
The Heat will get their first true test in this post-season against the surging Pacers. In the first round, the Heat played against the only team in the playoffs with a losing record, and in the second round they faced a completely depleted Bulls team. A major problem with the Heat this season has been their complacency against opponents. In many games, they just go through the motions until crunch time, when they turn up their intensity. The Pacers may be able to exploit this mindset at the start of this series, if the Heat do not come off their lay-off completely engaged.
The Pacers defense is textbook. Their defensive schemes are extremely impressive and they have the perfect lineup to execute them to perfection. George and Hibbert have emerged as two of the best defenders in the league. In their three meetings this season, the Pacers limited Miami to just 15.7 threes per game, down 6.2 from their average attempts. The Pacers were the second best team in the league in three point attempts allowed, and second best in corner threes allowed, while giving up a league best 32.6% to corner shooters (the best shot in basketball). However, the Heat have the most efficient offense in the league, and their multiple weapons will be very difficult to stop. Bosh is a huge factor in this series, with his ability to spread the floor and create space for other players to drive and finish, or drive and kick. Bosh is the second best high-volume mid-range shooter in the league, hitting 50.2%. His ability to knock down jumpers can bring the bigs for the Pacers out of the paint and create valuable space. It will be interesting to see how Vogel counters this, because Hibbert?s inside protection has been key to their success this season. The Pacers will need to keep Hibbert down low and funnel all action towards him, and he needs to stay out of foul trouble, which may be difficult against star-happy refs. But, the Pacers are 8-1 this postseason when they score more than 80 points, which shows just how strong their defensive pressure can be, and it takes some pressure away from their offense.
What has not been textbook is the Pacer's offense. They are prone to offensive droughts, as was clearly on display in game two against the Knicks, when they were outscored 30-2 in a stretch that started in the third quarter. The Heat had a great defense this season, allowing 100.5 points per 100 possessions, but they have really turned their defense up in the postseason, leading all teams with a rating of 93.4 per 100 possessions. The Pacers are not over reliant on one player to create scoring, which is a great strength of their team. In the last series, each of their starters was a high scorer in a game and each one averaged in double figures, showing their offensive balance. ?Coach is really relying on us five to get things done and we?re playing more minutes,? said Roy Hibbert, ?but we?re a young team and we can handle it.? However, beyond the starting five, they are very weak. If Hibbert or George get into foul trouble, there is no one to step in and fill these holes. During this post-season, the starters rating for the Pacers is +80 and when any one starter is out of the lineup, the Pacers rating is -49.
Indiana needs to continue their rebounding dominance in order to even out the possession margin and have a chance at pulling an upset in this series. Miami?s addition of Birdman is huge for them in this regard. But this season against the Heat, the Pacers rebounded 33.3% of available offensive rebounds, and 57.8% of available rebounds. They effectively limited the Heat?s ability to transition, as they averaged only 4.3 fast break points per game. But the Heat maintain their possession margin in other ways. The Pacers were the second worst team in the league this season in turnovers per possession, and this was very evident in the last series against the Knicks. For the Pacers to have a chance, they need to cut their turnover rate down. Way down. This will be especially difficult against the Heat, who like to pressure the ball. Their high court traps against the small point guards of the Pacers could prove problematic. Even George had problems this season splitting traps - earlier this season Vogel told him he was not allowed to attempt to split traps anymore because he turned it over nearly 70% of the time. The guards for the Pacers are going to have to successfully slip these long-armed traps and find open players. If they can, players like West and Hibbert will thrive. West was very effective against the Heat this season, averaging 22.7 points, 7.7 rebounds, and shooting 65.8% from the field. The Pacers also need to continue to get to the free-throw line at a high rate, by staying aggressive and driving inside.
Spoelstra is a great coach, and Lebron James is the MVP. Bill Simmons recently characterized Paul George as a ?poor man?s Lebron James?, which is fitting. He does a little bit of everything and is an excellent player, but Lebron is just unmatched in the league today with his all-around set of skills. Combine that with a lethal supporting cast, and it is a tough combination to break.
The Pacers are a young team, and it is easy to forget sometimes that they are playing without their leader, Granger. The Pacers have a brilliant future ahead of them, and this will be a step up the learning curve. Only one player on their roster has appeared in a conference finals game. But the Heat have all the elements of a championship team. This will be the fifth appearance by Wade and Haslem in the Eastern Conference Finals in the last nine years. It is Lebron?s fifth appearance in the last seven years. It is Miami?s third straight. The Pacers will have their chance down the road, but this season it appears that the Heat are completely engaged in winning a title, and it will be tough for any opponent to get in their way.
My prediction: Heat in 6
