By Darcy MacRae
Tue, Aug 8, 2006
Three teams have a legitimate shot at taking the C-USA East division this year: UCF, Southern Miss, and Marshall.
As for UAB, East Carolina and Memphis, well, there?s always 2007.
Bettors can look forward to several good ATS records in the conference, as well as a nice number of under bets. There will be a few shootouts thrown into the mix too, especially when UCF and East Carolina bump heads.
Here?s a look at how C-USA?s East division stacks up in 2006.
UCF
The Golden Knights shocked fans and bettors in 2005 by going 8-5 straight up and ATS, one year after a winless season.
They won?t be able to sneak up on anyone this time around, but with 18 returning players (nine each on offense and defense) UCF could establish itself as a C-USA power. They will almost certainly be making a second straight bowl appearance and should emerge as C-USA East division champions.
Bettors and fans are happy to see senior Steve Moffett back at quarterback, after he threw for 2,925 yards and 22 touchdowns in 2005. He?s already got good chemistry with receiver Mike Walker (64 catches and 9 TDs in 2005), while the Knights? running game is in good hands with Kevin Smith back after an outstanding freshman year (1,178 yards).
Between Moffett?s strong arm and improved decision making and Smith?s breakaway speed, UCF will have no trouble scoring this year, and should make the over a popular bet on most Saturdays.
On defense, UCF played a lot of freshmen last year, and at times it really showed. But the experience gained by the youngsters is sure to help the unit this season.
The defense is not on par with the offense, however. Combining with the possibility that oddsmakers might be a little too excited about the Knight?s ?05 campaign, this could make UCF less reliable against the spread than they?ll be straight up.
Prediction: 8-4 (SU), 5-7 (ATS)
Southern Miss
The Golden Eagles have an improved offense and a decent defense, but a nasty schedule and uncertainty in the backfield will likely keep Southern Miss out of the C-USA title game.
Head coach Jim Bowers doesn?t duck anyone, which explains why his team plays its opener at Florida, hosts NC State and travels to Virginia Tech. It?s tough to see the Golden Eagles winning all three of these games, but they?ll keep the score close enough to make ATS bettors some money.
Jeremy Young won the starting QB job in the spring, and Bowers sees him as a potential big-time playmaker, thanks to his ability to throw and run well. But don?t be surprised if Michigan State transfer Stephen Reaves also takes some snaps this season.
The Golden Eagles lack a dominant running back, but Bowers hopes junior Cody Hull can improve a ground game that finished 11th in C-USA with 111 yards per game in 2005. Hull started the final regular season game and the New Orleans Bowl win over Arkansas State, averaging 123 yards per game.
Darren McCaleb is one of the conference?s top place kickers, taking some pressure off Hull and Young. He?ll enable the team to come out on top of a few close games.
Southern Miss has an underrated defensive line, and they?re deep at linebacker. If Caleb Hendrix can avoid more hamstring troubles, he?ll be the team?s top cornerback. Together with strong safety Brandon Sumrall, he anchors the Golden Eagles? secondary.
Overall Southern Miss is shaping up to be a good under bet this year and finish 2006 with a solid ATS record, even if they do fall short of winning the division.
Prediction: 7-5 (SU), 9-3 (ATS)
Marshall
Mark Snyder did a fine job in his first season as Marshall?s head coach in 2005, turning the program around quickly and setting the team up for some big-time success down the road.
Marshall had 16 first-year starters last year, and as a result they take to the field this season with 19 returning starters.
Their experience is most evident on the defensive line, where the Herd return their starting front four. Sophomore Albert McClellan had three sacks and 40 tackles as a freshman, and he and senior Shavar Greer (22 tackles, four sacks in ?05) are two reasons Marshall has one of the top D-lines in the conference.
Likewise, the linebackers benefited from last year?s situation, with returnees Dennis Thornton and Matt Couch expected to finish among the conference leaders in tackles in 2006.
The biggest problem for Marshall is at the quarterback position, where there is no clear starter.
Junior Bernard Morris is the favorite to win the job, but senior Jimmy Skinner is also receiving consideration. Don?t be shocked if junior college transfer Derek Devine ends up as the starter, however. He used a strong arm and good decision-making to earn first-team snaps in the spring and could be the starter by the time September rolls around.
Running back Ahmad Bradshaw is the key to the offense after rushing for 997 yards and catching 56 passes (381 yards) last year. He?ll almost certainly surpass his nine touchdowns from a year ago.
Marshall is going to make UCF and Southern Miss sweat this year, but they aren?t ready to challenge for the division title. They?ll probably struggle on offense, but their defense will keep them in virtually every game. Look for a solid ATS record and low totals in Marshall games this year.
Prediction: 6-6 (SU), 7-5 (ATS)
UAB
Head coach Watson Brown quickly realized this spring he didn?t have a replacement for Darrell Hackney (3,180 yards passing, 22 TDs, 12 INTs in 2005), so he?ll focus the offense around a very good ground attack in 2006.
Four seniors ? all of whom have rushed for 100 yards in a game during their college careers ? will combine to give the Blazers one of the very best running games in C-USA.
Dan Burks and Corey White have combined for 3,398 yards and 28 touchdowns during their years with the Blazers, and each brings size and strength to the table.
Treey Chaney and Marcus Elliot aren?t the biggest backs in college football (they?re both around five-foot-nine, 190 pounds), but they bring plenty of speed to the UAB offense. Chaney missed all of 2005 with injuries but rushed for 638 yards over the three previous seasons while Elliott ran for 116 yards on just eight carries against UCF in 2005.
Brown says he?ll use a two-quarterback system this year, and he?ll choose from senior Chris Williams, sophomore Sam Hunt (a transfer from Middle Tennessee), and redshirt freshman Joseph Webb.
Williams is the least athletic QB of the bunch, but he?s also the only one to ever take a snap at UAB (he?s played 10 games ? started three, and has thrown 93 passes). Hunt saw limited action at Middle Tennessee in 2004, and is regarded as an excellent runner. Odds are these two will split duties with Webb serving as the Blazers? QB of the future.
Luckily for UAB, they?ve got a talented offensive line that will give their quarterbacks plenty of protection and aid the dangerous running game.
The situation on defense is not so rosy, and shows little improvement over the squad that allowed 24.0 points and 372.4 yards per game last year and allowed the opposition to 45 percent of third-down attempts in 2005.
Between the uncertainty at QB and their struggles on defense, UAB is likely to be on the wrong end of some close games this year.
The only way that?s good news is if you?re betting the pointspread, in which case a nice profit can be made.
Prediction: 4-8 (SU), 6-6 (ATS)
East Carolina
Quarterback James Pinkney is slated to have a huge year if you believe the hype.
He threw for 2,773 years in ?05 and connected on 14 touchdown passes (compared to eight interceptions) while rushing for seven TDs. The multi-talented signal caller had the fourth-best passing season in school history, and is capable of setting East Carolina records in 2006.
Chris Johnson is a fine tailback, but he had screws inserted into a loose vertebrae in his neck after last season. He?s expected to be ready for opening day, but there are still concerns about his durability this year.
There isn?t much depth behind Johnson, although sophomores Dominique Lindsay and Brandon Fractious looked decent in the spring.
East Carolina?s defense simply cannot stop the run ? they allowed 230 or more yards on the ground five times last year. This will haunt them again in 2006 and will keep Pinkney on the bench for long stretches of time.
Between Pinkney?s arm and a weak defense, East Carolina could see their totals rise this season.
Prediction: 4-8 (SU), 3-9 (ATS)
Memphis
Bettors and fans take note: DeAngelo Williams is gone, and Memphis doesn?t have a running back capable of replacing him.
Junior Joseph Doss and freshman T.J. Pitts will surely try, but they?ll be lucky if they combine to run for the 18 touchdowns and 1,959 yards picked up by Williams last year.
Pitts could eventually become an All-American runner for the Tigers, but he?ll be in tough to do so right now.
Southeastern Louisiana transfer Martin Hankins is rumored to be the Tigers? starting QB, but he?ll be challenged by returnees Patrick Byrne and Will Hudgens ? both of whom started last year before suffering broken legs.
The Tigers? have depth at receiver, and in the secondary, and senior Michael Gibson is one the country?s top punters after ranking 11th in the nation with a 44.6 yard average last year.
With a new QB and inexperience at running back, the Memphis offense is sure to sputter.
Prediction: 2-10 (SU), 3-9 (ATS)
Tue, Aug 8, 2006
Three teams have a legitimate shot at taking the C-USA East division this year: UCF, Southern Miss, and Marshall.
As for UAB, East Carolina and Memphis, well, there?s always 2007.
Bettors can look forward to several good ATS records in the conference, as well as a nice number of under bets. There will be a few shootouts thrown into the mix too, especially when UCF and East Carolina bump heads.
Here?s a look at how C-USA?s East division stacks up in 2006.
UCF
The Golden Knights shocked fans and bettors in 2005 by going 8-5 straight up and ATS, one year after a winless season.
They won?t be able to sneak up on anyone this time around, but with 18 returning players (nine each on offense and defense) UCF could establish itself as a C-USA power. They will almost certainly be making a second straight bowl appearance and should emerge as C-USA East division champions.
Bettors and fans are happy to see senior Steve Moffett back at quarterback, after he threw for 2,925 yards and 22 touchdowns in 2005. He?s already got good chemistry with receiver Mike Walker (64 catches and 9 TDs in 2005), while the Knights? running game is in good hands with Kevin Smith back after an outstanding freshman year (1,178 yards).
Between Moffett?s strong arm and improved decision making and Smith?s breakaway speed, UCF will have no trouble scoring this year, and should make the over a popular bet on most Saturdays.
On defense, UCF played a lot of freshmen last year, and at times it really showed. But the experience gained by the youngsters is sure to help the unit this season.
The defense is not on par with the offense, however. Combining with the possibility that oddsmakers might be a little too excited about the Knight?s ?05 campaign, this could make UCF less reliable against the spread than they?ll be straight up.
Prediction: 8-4 (SU), 5-7 (ATS)
Southern Miss
The Golden Eagles have an improved offense and a decent defense, but a nasty schedule and uncertainty in the backfield will likely keep Southern Miss out of the C-USA title game.
Head coach Jim Bowers doesn?t duck anyone, which explains why his team plays its opener at Florida, hosts NC State and travels to Virginia Tech. It?s tough to see the Golden Eagles winning all three of these games, but they?ll keep the score close enough to make ATS bettors some money.
Jeremy Young won the starting QB job in the spring, and Bowers sees him as a potential big-time playmaker, thanks to his ability to throw and run well. But don?t be surprised if Michigan State transfer Stephen Reaves also takes some snaps this season.
The Golden Eagles lack a dominant running back, but Bowers hopes junior Cody Hull can improve a ground game that finished 11th in C-USA with 111 yards per game in 2005. Hull started the final regular season game and the New Orleans Bowl win over Arkansas State, averaging 123 yards per game.
Darren McCaleb is one of the conference?s top place kickers, taking some pressure off Hull and Young. He?ll enable the team to come out on top of a few close games.
Southern Miss has an underrated defensive line, and they?re deep at linebacker. If Caleb Hendrix can avoid more hamstring troubles, he?ll be the team?s top cornerback. Together with strong safety Brandon Sumrall, he anchors the Golden Eagles? secondary.
Overall Southern Miss is shaping up to be a good under bet this year and finish 2006 with a solid ATS record, even if they do fall short of winning the division.
Prediction: 7-5 (SU), 9-3 (ATS)
Marshall
Mark Snyder did a fine job in his first season as Marshall?s head coach in 2005, turning the program around quickly and setting the team up for some big-time success down the road.
Marshall had 16 first-year starters last year, and as a result they take to the field this season with 19 returning starters.
Their experience is most evident on the defensive line, where the Herd return their starting front four. Sophomore Albert McClellan had three sacks and 40 tackles as a freshman, and he and senior Shavar Greer (22 tackles, four sacks in ?05) are two reasons Marshall has one of the top D-lines in the conference.
Likewise, the linebackers benefited from last year?s situation, with returnees Dennis Thornton and Matt Couch expected to finish among the conference leaders in tackles in 2006.
The biggest problem for Marshall is at the quarterback position, where there is no clear starter.
Junior Bernard Morris is the favorite to win the job, but senior Jimmy Skinner is also receiving consideration. Don?t be shocked if junior college transfer Derek Devine ends up as the starter, however. He used a strong arm and good decision-making to earn first-team snaps in the spring and could be the starter by the time September rolls around.
Running back Ahmad Bradshaw is the key to the offense after rushing for 997 yards and catching 56 passes (381 yards) last year. He?ll almost certainly surpass his nine touchdowns from a year ago.
Marshall is going to make UCF and Southern Miss sweat this year, but they aren?t ready to challenge for the division title. They?ll probably struggle on offense, but their defense will keep them in virtually every game. Look for a solid ATS record and low totals in Marshall games this year.
Prediction: 6-6 (SU), 7-5 (ATS)
UAB
Head coach Watson Brown quickly realized this spring he didn?t have a replacement for Darrell Hackney (3,180 yards passing, 22 TDs, 12 INTs in 2005), so he?ll focus the offense around a very good ground attack in 2006.
Four seniors ? all of whom have rushed for 100 yards in a game during their college careers ? will combine to give the Blazers one of the very best running games in C-USA.
Dan Burks and Corey White have combined for 3,398 yards and 28 touchdowns during their years with the Blazers, and each brings size and strength to the table.
Treey Chaney and Marcus Elliot aren?t the biggest backs in college football (they?re both around five-foot-nine, 190 pounds), but they bring plenty of speed to the UAB offense. Chaney missed all of 2005 with injuries but rushed for 638 yards over the three previous seasons while Elliott ran for 116 yards on just eight carries against UCF in 2005.
Brown says he?ll use a two-quarterback system this year, and he?ll choose from senior Chris Williams, sophomore Sam Hunt (a transfer from Middle Tennessee), and redshirt freshman Joseph Webb.
Williams is the least athletic QB of the bunch, but he?s also the only one to ever take a snap at UAB (he?s played 10 games ? started three, and has thrown 93 passes). Hunt saw limited action at Middle Tennessee in 2004, and is regarded as an excellent runner. Odds are these two will split duties with Webb serving as the Blazers? QB of the future.
Luckily for UAB, they?ve got a talented offensive line that will give their quarterbacks plenty of protection and aid the dangerous running game.
The situation on defense is not so rosy, and shows little improvement over the squad that allowed 24.0 points and 372.4 yards per game last year and allowed the opposition to 45 percent of third-down attempts in 2005.
Between the uncertainty at QB and their struggles on defense, UAB is likely to be on the wrong end of some close games this year.
The only way that?s good news is if you?re betting the pointspread, in which case a nice profit can be made.
Prediction: 4-8 (SU), 6-6 (ATS)
East Carolina
Quarterback James Pinkney is slated to have a huge year if you believe the hype.
He threw for 2,773 years in ?05 and connected on 14 touchdown passes (compared to eight interceptions) while rushing for seven TDs. The multi-talented signal caller had the fourth-best passing season in school history, and is capable of setting East Carolina records in 2006.
Chris Johnson is a fine tailback, but he had screws inserted into a loose vertebrae in his neck after last season. He?s expected to be ready for opening day, but there are still concerns about his durability this year.
There isn?t much depth behind Johnson, although sophomores Dominique Lindsay and Brandon Fractious looked decent in the spring.
East Carolina?s defense simply cannot stop the run ? they allowed 230 or more yards on the ground five times last year. This will haunt them again in 2006 and will keep Pinkney on the bench for long stretches of time.
Between Pinkney?s arm and a weak defense, East Carolina could see their totals rise this season.
Prediction: 4-8 (SU), 3-9 (ATS)
Memphis
Bettors and fans take note: DeAngelo Williams is gone, and Memphis doesn?t have a running back capable of replacing him.
Junior Joseph Doss and freshman T.J. Pitts will surely try, but they?ll be lucky if they combine to run for the 18 touchdowns and 1,959 yards picked up by Williams last year.
Pitts could eventually become an All-American runner for the Tigers, but he?ll be in tough to do so right now.
Southeastern Louisiana transfer Martin Hankins is rumored to be the Tigers? starting QB, but he?ll be challenged by returnees Patrick Byrne and Will Hudgens ? both of whom started last year before suffering broken legs.
The Tigers? have depth at receiver, and in the secondary, and senior Michael Gibson is one the country?s top punters after ranking 11th in the nation with a 44.6 yard average last year.
With a new QB and inexperience at running back, the Memphis offense is sure to sputter.
Prediction: 2-10 (SU), 3-9 (ATS)
