South Florida +10.5 SMALL TO MEDIUM PLAY
Now first of all, the Scarlet Knights have been no world beaters this year. They're just 3-8 SU in their last 11 games overall and are being asked to cover a ton of points in this spot. They're a very ordinary 6-5 SU and 5-6 ATS at the Louis Brown Atletic Center as this venue, which in the past has been tough on visitors, has not provided much of a home court advantage for Rutgers.
Rutgers coach Gary Waters (75-72 SU in five seasons) is under fire and today he has a team that's ailing and struggling to find scoring punch outside of Quincy Douby. Injuries have hit Rutgers hard of late, the latest being Ollie Bailey spraining his ankle in this week's loss to Georgetown (a game in which no player other than Douby scored more than six points.
South Florida struggles to score, but Rutgers is shooting only 40.7 percent in its last five games and is facing a Bulls team that is holding opponents to less then 42 percent shooting. Now, it's true that South Florida is winless in the conference and hasn't won a SU game in like forever. But this is a Bulls team that keeps it close and plays well on the road (6-2 ATS on the highway this year).
Of course, that wasn't the case this past Tuesday at Providence, where the Bulls came out extremely flat and were whacked by 21 points, which was tied for their worst setback of the season.
I see South Florida bouncing back after that sluggish effort. This team can control tempo and it rebounds well (fouth in the Big East in rebounding margin). Seniors James Holmes and Solomon Jones do not want to end their careers on such a sorry skid.
South Florida will play with a lot of purpose in this one, unfortunately they won't win. But they will cover as this is just too many points for this so-so Rutgers team to be laying. South Florida is the play here.