What can I say? Ridiculous! The really high numbers (70%+) are winning at a ridiculous rate since the all-star break (it was 19/25 for 76% thru July 29th, I know it was cruising after that, and the past 3 days saw a 7/7, 5 hit runline, a 4/5 with 3 hitting the runline, and 2/2 yesterday with both Yanks and Giants covering the 1.5 - Vogelsong would have just improved the number some, if any, replacing scheduled Torres).
Ridiculous 13/14 70+ were winners, 10/14 won the runline.
My dang 54's-62 can't hit chit right now (the ones I'm playing -- the ones suggesting value); Marlins (54) and Royals (56 but I played it anyway ... grrrBPgrrr ... Hentgen and O's (61) and Cards (oops ... vs Willis (55)) the day before. At least I nabbed a piece of Bosox (63) as the line dropped considerable before kickoff, and also tasted a Coors under as well as both sides of the Tigers fluke.
Yes, I'm anxiously waiting, too.
Totals system will be great ... by next year; still trying to figure out how to use the numbers in relation to the varrying totals, varrying ballparks, etc.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Brewers 63 (Pavano@Sheets)
--got this figure before last night's game, so I think I won't be lowering it any; Sheets is the better starter, is hotter, and has better success vs opponent here; Brewers offensive deficiency here is not that great and defenses are comparable; Marlins BP edge is larger, but not enormous
PLAYING:
Brewers -105 (PV+11)
3.15/3
expos 55 (Vazquez@Robertson)
--Expos still prefering lefties, which helps them here; Robertson has cooled off lately, while Vazquez has really found his form; I want to try Expos and under 9.5, believing that Astros will need to pitch in this one to have a chance, as Vazquez shouldn't be serving up any batting practice (they go extra's with D'Backs and I like it less ... 4-4 in the 9th now); this is one of those percentages that scares me right now, as I mentioned off the start
braves@Cards 50-50 (Ortiz@Fassero)
--minor value on Cards at +120 if % is true, but another one I'm not anxious to get mixed-up in, and I can't remember the last time I went against Ortiz - sure looks like a career year for him; I like this over 9, but remaining a spectator (last minute only, if line looks fair and an ump discovered who will be willing to cooperate majorly on the over-thing)
Rockies 65 (Meadows@Jennings)
--this factor in how hot Meadows is, and his good work vs Rockies in his career; Jennings is also hot, especially at Coors Field where he is 7-0 this year in 9 starts w/3.63 era; the big edge comes on offense here, especially with Rockies at home, where they're now 40-17 -- it would be better if Meadows were a lefty, sure, but Rocks hitting (almost) everybody @Coors; too much at -180, for me, but runline is tempting (+100 or -105); like the under here, as Coors games have been a bit calmer this year (why we see no 13-14 totals anymore), and will like it even better if an under-ump is in the offing
PLAYING:
pirates@Rockies under 12 -110
1.1/1
D'Backs 73 (Glavine@Webb)
--Glavine very good in career vs D'Backs, including 7-3 w/2.68 era, and 5-1 w/1.64 era in 6 @Bank One; he had one fairly poor start vs (Shea) back in April, was dreadful in 3 of his past 4 true starts (left last hurt), and can't be expected to have his A-game here after being sidelined by a strained oblique/ribcage; Mets BP still worked 4 yesterday, despite decent outting by Trachsel, and I will be stunned if they are not needed here -- they are pretty brutal, generally, and D'Backs solid pen has big edge there; Webb is probably Willis' best competition for NL Rookie honours this year; he faced Braves in his 3rd big league start, and pitched 7 great innings (3 hits, 1 run); under would look good if Glavine could be expected to perform, especially as D'Backs prefer righties; same offensive edge given here to D'Backs as was given to Astros yesterday
(D'Backs have bigger OPS+ at home, vs away, than do Astros), but pitching edge is much larger
PLAYING:
D'Backs -180 (PV+8)
3.6/2
--32% of Mets losses have come by only one run, which is pretty high, but I say 56% for the runline (PV+7 at +105) is reasonable
--I think Webb can go 7, easy, which is good as this dang extra-inning stuff w/Expos is happening post-expenditure
Padres (59) (Bale@Peavy)
--circled as I really don't know what to expect from Bale, except probably a fairly short outting; Peavy is fairly hot and had a good start @Reds (only meeting) back in April, allowing 3 hits and striking out 9 in 6.1 IP, getting the W in a 7-3 Pads win (made him 4-1 and the time, and his number have ballooned some since, but back then was also when the Reds were smoking righties, especially at home; now-with-A's Guillen homered off Peavy in that one, a Dunn sac-fly the other run vs Jake); price is a little high for me at -130 (PV+2 at 59)
--Bale is a mystery...who knows?...may be another Gobble:lol:
Dodgers 60 (Estes@Ashby)
--Cubs offense is like the Twins, Angels, and Royals this year (others?) - never know if they're gonna show or not; Dodgers best chance is vs lefties, but they can't hit squat right now (4 runs vs shaky Wilson does not impress, for example, and that was HIGH for them ); Estes has been much better lately (WAY not difficult), but has sucked in his career vs (3-7, 5.22 overall and 1-3, 6.75 in 8 @Dodger Stadium, with LA hitting .317 in those 8); Ashby 8-2 w/3.48 in lotsa career work vs Cubs, but is not as hot as Estes right now; I was sorta thinking Cubs before crunching the numbers here, but +120 looks a little low for me, even if I was going to go counter to my numbers; total looks a little low, as always @DS
phillies 55 (Wolf@Foppert)
--decent work by both vs opponent, with Wolf obviously having more action; Wolf has cooled off some while Foppert is very unpredictable; decent offensive edge to Giants here as they still love lefties; Phillies already strong pen should improve with Mesa not a factor right now; if it moves to Philly +100 then I'll try a small play, just PV+3 at the -107 I can currently get; interesting to note that Giants, while still clubbing lefties, haven't faced a lefty starter in some time, have faced several poor lefty starters this year, and have been quiet in several games vs better (and some not) lefties on season; Phillies dropping 2 of 3 @Coors, which doesn't change my mind here, may help move the line in my direction; total a tough call with Foppert having, arguably, 7 crappy starts and 4 good over his past 11 (good vs Padres, Rockies twice, and Chisox)
is that it?
Drats ... when did this second league come along?
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
So crucify the ego, before it's far too late
To leave behind a place so negative and blind and cynical
And you will come to find that we are all one mind
Capable of all that's imagined and all conceivable
(Tool-Lateralus-Reflection)
Ridiculous 13/14 70+ were winners, 10/14 won the runline.
My dang 54's-62 can't hit chit right now (the ones I'm playing -- the ones suggesting value); Marlins (54) and Royals (56 but I played it anyway ... grrrBPgrrr ... Hentgen and O's (61) and Cards (oops ... vs Willis (55)) the day before. At least I nabbed a piece of Bosox (63) as the line dropped considerable before kickoff, and also tasted a Coors under as well as both sides of the Tigers fluke.
Yes, I'm anxiously waiting, too.
Totals system will be great ... by next year; still trying to figure out how to use the numbers in relation to the varrying totals, varrying ballparks, etc.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Brewers 63 (Pavano@Sheets)
--got this figure before last night's game, so I think I won't be lowering it any; Sheets is the better starter, is hotter, and has better success vs opponent here; Brewers offensive deficiency here is not that great and defenses are comparable; Marlins BP edge is larger, but not enormous
PLAYING:
Brewers -105 (PV+11)
3.15/3
expos 55 (Vazquez@Robertson)
--Expos still prefering lefties, which helps them here; Robertson has cooled off lately, while Vazquez has really found his form; I want to try Expos and under 9.5, believing that Astros will need to pitch in this one to have a chance, as Vazquez shouldn't be serving up any batting practice (they go extra's with D'Backs and I like it less ... 4-4 in the 9th now); this is one of those percentages that scares me right now, as I mentioned off the start
braves@Cards 50-50 (Ortiz@Fassero)
--minor value on Cards at +120 if % is true, but another one I'm not anxious to get mixed-up in, and I can't remember the last time I went against Ortiz - sure looks like a career year for him; I like this over 9, but remaining a spectator (last minute only, if line looks fair and an ump discovered who will be willing to cooperate majorly on the over-thing)
Rockies 65 (Meadows@Jennings)
--this factor in how hot Meadows is, and his good work vs Rockies in his career; Jennings is also hot, especially at Coors Field where he is 7-0 this year in 9 starts w/3.63 era; the big edge comes on offense here, especially with Rockies at home, where they're now 40-17 -- it would be better if Meadows were a lefty, sure, but Rocks hitting (almost) everybody @Coors; too much at -180, for me, but runline is tempting (+100 or -105); like the under here, as Coors games have been a bit calmer this year (why we see no 13-14 totals anymore), and will like it even better if an under-ump is in the offing
PLAYING:
pirates@Rockies under 12 -110
1.1/1
D'Backs 73 (Glavine@Webb)
--Glavine very good in career vs D'Backs, including 7-3 w/2.68 era, and 5-1 w/1.64 era in 6 @Bank One; he had one fairly poor start vs (Shea) back in April, was dreadful in 3 of his past 4 true starts (left last hurt), and can't be expected to have his A-game here after being sidelined by a strained oblique/ribcage; Mets BP still worked 4 yesterday, despite decent outting by Trachsel, and I will be stunned if they are not needed here -- they are pretty brutal, generally, and D'Backs solid pen has big edge there; Webb is probably Willis' best competition for NL Rookie honours this year; he faced Braves in his 3rd big league start, and pitched 7 great innings (3 hits, 1 run); under would look good if Glavine could be expected to perform, especially as D'Backs prefer righties; same offensive edge given here to D'Backs as was given to Astros yesterday
(D'Backs have bigger OPS+ at home, vs away, than do Astros), but pitching edge is much largerPLAYING:
D'Backs -180 (PV+8)
3.6/2
--32% of Mets losses have come by only one run, which is pretty high, but I say 56% for the runline (PV+7 at +105) is reasonable
--I think Webb can go 7, easy, which is good as this dang extra-inning stuff w/Expos is happening post-expenditure
Padres (59) (Bale@Peavy)
--circled as I really don't know what to expect from Bale, except probably a fairly short outting; Peavy is fairly hot and had a good start @Reds (only meeting) back in April, allowing 3 hits and striking out 9 in 6.1 IP, getting the W in a 7-3 Pads win (made him 4-1 and the time, and his number have ballooned some since, but back then was also when the Reds were smoking righties, especially at home; now-with-A's Guillen homered off Peavy in that one, a Dunn sac-fly the other run vs Jake); price is a little high for me at -130 (PV+2 at 59)
--Bale is a mystery...who knows?...may be another Gobble:lol:
Dodgers 60 (Estes@Ashby)
--Cubs offense is like the Twins, Angels, and Royals this year (others?) - never know if they're gonna show or not; Dodgers best chance is vs lefties, but they can't hit squat right now (4 runs vs shaky Wilson does not impress, for example, and that was HIGH for them
); Estes has been much better lately (WAY not difficult), but has sucked in his career vs (3-7, 5.22 overall and 1-3, 6.75 in 8 @Dodger Stadium, with LA hitting .317 in those 8); Ashby 8-2 w/3.48 in lotsa career work vs Cubs, but is not as hot as Estes right now; I was sorta thinking Cubs before crunching the numbers here, but +120 looks a little low for me, even if I was going to go counter to my numbers; total looks a little low, as always @DSphillies 55 (Wolf@Foppert)
--decent work by both vs opponent, with Wolf obviously having more action; Wolf has cooled off some while Foppert is very unpredictable; decent offensive edge to Giants here as they still love lefties; Phillies already strong pen should improve with Mesa not a factor right now; if it moves to Philly +100 then I'll try a small play, just PV+3 at the -107 I can currently get; interesting to note that Giants, while still clubbing lefties, haven't faced a lefty starter in some time, have faced several poor lefty starters this year, and have been quiet in several games vs better (and some not) lefties on season; Phillies dropping 2 of 3 @Coors, which doesn't change my mind here, may help move the line in my direction; total a tough call with Foppert having, arguably, 7 crappy starts and 4 good over his past 11 (good vs Padres, Rockies twice, and Chisox)
is that it?
Drats ... when did this second league come along?
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
So crucify the ego, before it's far too late
To leave behind a place so negative and blind and cynical
And you will come to find that we are all one mind
Capable of all that's imagined and all conceivable
(Tool-Lateralus-Reflection)
