Cotto vs. Margarito

[Zerwas]

I'm sure we had a thread before, but I cant find it....

Very intriguing fight.

Very tough to call.

My first impression was that Margarito shouldnt be a 2-1 underdog, but Cotto has yet to lose a fight...

I think cotto will give Margarito fits with his speed and boxing ability, on the other hand, we know that Margarito is tough as nails, and I think he might catch up with Cotto at some point.

So far I played:

over 9.5 77%
2 units

Cotto by decision 190-170%
early lines from 5dimes
1 unit

1/4 unit on Margarito 10-12 1400%
1/4 unit on the fight ending in a Majority or split decision 600%


Whats everybodys take!?

 

[frank s.]

I feel Cotto is STILL improving. As we speak, he just gets better; defense wise, boxing wise and he somehow has learned to take a shot a lot better. Make no mistake he WILL get hit real good by Margarito, but I see Margarito as a guy past his prime. But I thought that about Nate Campbell and now he is champ! Some books in Nevada have Cotto-270(MGM-Mirage), for one. Way too high. I have been studying the Margarito fight with Clottey. He was getting hit way too often. Seems he is old school; will take 2-3 to land one. My lean is toward Cotto due to his well rounded skills. Margarito's saving grace is his incredible toughness/ability to take a shot. Truly amazing to see some of the punches he absorbed and he just keeps coming.

 

[weepaul]

I am betting Margarito BIG at +220.

I don't think Margarito was up for the unknown Clottey who had a loss on his record to Baldimor (by DQ). I don't base much on that fight. I also don't base much substance on how shitty Cotto looked at light welter.

I believe Cotto has the skills to beat Margarito but I believe Margarito will drag him into a slugfest.

Fighters from these nations are all about machismo-Trinidad vs Vargas
Gomez vs Sanchez/Pintor
Chavez vs Rosario.

These fights all came down to someone imposing their will and taking their opponents heart.

If Cotto is smart, he boxes and wins on points. I believe the warrior spirit that is in his blood will force him to fight and in a FIGHT Margarito can take anyones heart including Cotto's.

We shall see.

 

[frank s.]

A) If Margarito wasn't "up" for Clottey, that's on him. A pro is supposed to be prepared at all times. Not being "up" is bullshit.
B) All Margarito knows is slugfest city anyhow. I admire his toughness make no mistake. He will, in his role as the pressure agressive guy, walk into shots flush on the chin. He accepts this as the cost of doing business HIS way, as Sinatra says. For all his years Margarito lacks the polish you would think he would have acquired by now.
C) As far as poise and composure go, I'd say Cotto is ahead in that department. If Margarito takes this, it will be because of his granite chin and "tough as nails" compositon. Right now @+230 at MGM, Margarito is a value play. I bet Cotto at less and I bet OVER 9.5-170 also. SD Cotto.

 

[weepaul]

A) If Margarito wasn't "up" for Clottey, that's on him. A pro is supposed to be prepared at all times. Not being "up" is bullshit.
B) All Margarito knows is slugfest city anyhow. I admire his toughness make no mistake. He will, in his role as the pressure agressive guy, walk into shots flush on the chin. He accepts this as the cost of doing business HIS way, as Sinatra says. For all his years Margarito lacks the polish you would think he would have acquired by now.
C) As far as poise and composure go, I'd say Cotto is ahead in that department. If Margarito takes this, it will be because of his granite chin and "tough as nails" compositon. Right now @+230 at MGM, Margarito is a value play. I bet Cotto at less and I bet OVER 9.5-170 also. SD Cotto.

Being "up" for a fight might be bullshit in your opinion and I would agree but it DOES happen to the best of them not named Hagler.

Cotto does stay very composed while hurt. I can't say the same for Margarito as he is barely ever hurt.

I believe Cotto can win this fight but won't and I would put the blame on Latino Machismo. This is a BIG Welter he is chosing to tango with and I admire Cotto's guts. The guy will fight anybody with no excuses. This time I think it bites him on the arse.

Good luck.

 

[THE_THONG]

margarito was injured for the clottey fight and had a bad camp

he didn't pull himself out of the fight and willed his way to victory

 

[frank s.]

How was he injured? How did Clottey survive 12 rounds whilst fighting with basically 1 good hand? A bad camp? Would we have heard of this "bad" camp if he had won? Tony's wildness will be his undoing here; the guy fights with reckless abandon. His ass will be bittten upon this time.

 

[THE_THONG]

dougie fischer wrote about it in his mailbag today:

"Speaking of pride, I think we can count on Cotto-Margarito delivering action, but don?t expect the version of the TJ Tornado that fought Clottey. Margarito had a bad hand and a bum ankle going into that match; he?s had a good camp and he?s injury free for Cotto. Margarito might miss Cotto with the first two punches he throws, but he?ll get him with the
third, fourth and fifth punches that he delivers in his usual bunches. I think Cotto will be able to take the punches, at least for the first half of the fight."

 

[SkunkApe]

...in a FIGHT Margarito can take anyones heart...

Except for that tall skinny dude...

 

[gardenweasel]

Except for that tall skinny dude...

skunkape...welcome aboard.....lol



what a lousy undercard,though....segura/canchilla might be decent.....

but,it`s basically a low rent undercard...throw linares/arce/montiel on there.........somebody to give it a little ooomph...

wtf is wrong with these promoters...

 

[frank s.]

Doug Fischer is a hack. He will say anything for a buck. Yea, and the ape is correct. Versus Williams he had no answer. Looked lost. Said he THOUGHT he won. Doesn't most of the losers say that. Bad camp, bad ankle, cat died. large pimple on ass removed, whatever. Excuses when you lose; sing your praises when you win. Blah-blah-blah!:mj07:

 

[SkunkApe]

skunkape...welcome aboard.....lol

Thanks - I appreciate it.

I've been reading this forum for months, but never posted here before. I know some of you guys from other boxing forums.

I'm leaning heavily towards Cotto. I just can't get that chin thing out of my mind, though.

Agree on the undercard. I probably won't even watch it. I've got some friends coming over- we'll probably just BS, drink beer and eat barbecued shrimp with the TV on in the background until the main event starts.

Thanks again for the welcome.

 

[gardenweasel]

Thanks - I appreciate it.

I've been reading this forum for months, but never posted here before. I know some of you guys from other boxing forums.

I'm leaning heavily towards Cotto. I just can't get that chin thing out of my mind, though.

Agree on the undercard. I probably won't even watch it. I've got some friends coming over- we'll probably just BS, drink beer and eat barbecued shrimp with the TV on in the background until the main event starts.

Thanks again for the welcome.

good to have another boxing guy in the forum....

if you follow mma at all,jump in on those threads...

between yourself and "THE THONG",the "moniker" situation around here is looking up.....:SIB :lol:

 

[THE_THONG]

this forum needs more members with wierder names :SIB

 

[gardenweasel]

this forum needs more members with wierder names :SIB

werd!

 

[frank s.]

Ape, we need to know your entire menu for the evening. Nothing personal, but we are a bunch of nosy bastards and you can tell a lot about a guy by the food he eats.

 

[THE_THONG]

we need someone to post as

THE_SWEATY_BALLSACK

 

[frank s.]

Well, I think maybe weasel and thong are becoming an item. :scared

 

[SkunkApe]

Ape, we need to know your entire menu for the evening. Nothing personal, but we are a bunch of nosy bastards and you can tell a lot about a guy by the food he eats.

OK. Understand this will be more of a snack than a full dinner.

Barbecued shrimp - Purchase jumbo-size frozen shrimp, raw, tail-on, peeled and deveined. Thaw. Brush with olive oil, thread on water-soaked bamboo skewers (4 shrimp per skewer). Sprinkle on cajun spice mix. Grill about 2-1/2 minutes per side over medium flame.

Sweet hot grilled pineapple - Core fresh pineapple and cut into chunks. Thread onto bamboo skewers. Shake on Tabasco sauce (each chunk gets 2-4 drops or so.) Cover with brown sugar. Grill over medium flame until sugar begins to caramelize - about 4 minutes per side.

Long grain wild rice - buy pre-packaged at grocery, follow package instructions.

Snack plate - Jarlesberg cheese, apple slices, grapes.

Beers - Shiner Bock, Fat Tire, Bud Light

Wines - Chardonnay and albarino

Have fun, guys.

 

[nj]

This is Cotto's fight to lose, no doubt. He has the physical tools and skill to easily oubox Margarito, the advantages in footwork and foot speed, hand speed, skill set, accuracy, youth, and fresher chin. If he can keep his distance and make Margarito pay for every time he steps forward, he can pick Margo apart and maybe even stop him. He would be wise to clinch in close-quarters imo, and let the ref put the distance back.

That said, sticking to such a gameplan for 12 rounds against someone with the chin, stamina, determination of Margarito, who is now starting strong from round 1 after learning his lesson vs Williams, is a daunting task. Margarito's constant pressure could lead to frustration and the temptation to fight Margarito inside and exchange power punches is too great.

I see Cotto being ahead on points throughout, but as the fight progresses and the machismo of the moment catches up to them, I see Cotto abandoning the game plan even only temporarily, and slugging with Margarito on the inside and testing his chin against Margo's.

Even just a few rounds out of 12 as a brutal slugfest makes Cotto vulnerable. He has the power to keep Margarito honest, but his chin is not as sturdy as Margo's. At some point Margo will cach up to Cotto whether it be b/c of fatigue, or more likely the temptation to prove his power and chin and national pride, and in those few rounds of in-fighting, im picking Margarito to land a perfect uppercut in close that rocks Cotto, followed by a swarm of pucnhes to wave it off.

The value is on Margarito +230. I got Cotto -145 opener and bought Margo +206 to make a small play at great odds, at +230 ill add more.

I also have Cotto decision +182 to break even.

Im considering the under 9.5, if it gets into the 11th round it's likely Cotto is well ahead and settling for a decision. Margarito only needs 2 or 3 rounds of in-fighting to hurt Cotto, this could happen before round 10. It's reasonably possible that Cotto catches Margo with a beautiful counter show as Margo jumps in, one that Margo doesnt see coming and is unprepared for, and Margo gets stopped. If that's the case it's more likely to be a sloppy attempt at pressure in the middle rounds against a full-stamina Cotto, not in round 11 or 12 while desperately trying to get inside and being focused and expecting counters.

So ya, Margo, Cotto decision, small on the under.