Early game:
LA Dodgers over Cincinatti -105: Perez is going to have a chance to neutralize some of the LHH in the Cinci lineup. Dessens is a sinker ball type whose arm action looked a little more stiff last outing. Day game should have the ball carry more and easier to see, so look for him to get hit. Dunn has been struggling with LHP and overall you have some question marks in the Cinci lineup.
Red Sox/Texas over 11: Better play would be Red Sox team total over, but it's not out yet. Chan Ho Park, who struggles with competiveness, has nothing to pitch for. On top of that, he's not making good pitches and pitching at a hitter's ballpark. Plus, his career numbers, even on his best days, are brutal outside of LA. Sox should win, but -145 is on the border of losing value. I would potentially parlay the two -- Sox & over -- because they are correlated in this sense. Chances are better that the Sox win in a blowout or the Rangers win if Chan Ho pitches out his ass... Doubtful that Burkett will lose to Park if they both get hit, because of his willingness to compete (and the teams' attitude to compete).
Angels over Yankees -110: Weaver has potential but there's a major difference between potential and on field performance. Weaver seems like he has been fighting a dead arm for some time now, although he is a very public pitcher because of his long floppy arm action. It's tough to go against the Yankees because of their strengths, but if Washburn can keep the ball in the ballpark, he should keep the Yanks from racking up a bunch of hits in a row. I like LHP going against the Yanks, especially if they have a chance to neutralize the power.
Cleveland/Seattle over 8: I'm a big fan of Pineiro, however, he makes a lot of 0-2 mistake pitches. Too many backdoor SL that catch too much of the plate. He will be a great pitcher soon, as he has a plus CB, avg FB, and avg to plus SL. But not right now. He's good for one or two mistakes a game, and in particular he tries to get that SL over to LHH, which might mean a mistake to Thome who could make him pay for one bad pitch. Sabathia has issues and is good for a few runs. No bullpen to speak of in Cle also means a good chance for some runs out of the pen. This should be a good play.
Detroit +180 over Oak: Harang isn't that great. I'm more scared of Lackey on any given day than Harang. It might be a decent, small, late shot for someone -- or a throw in for a big 'for fun' type parlay. Tough to go with a bad team, but I wouldn't go with Oakland.
Good luck.
LA Dodgers over Cincinatti -105: Perez is going to have a chance to neutralize some of the LHH in the Cinci lineup. Dessens is a sinker ball type whose arm action looked a little more stiff last outing. Day game should have the ball carry more and easier to see, so look for him to get hit. Dunn has been struggling with LHP and overall you have some question marks in the Cinci lineup.
Red Sox/Texas over 11: Better play would be Red Sox team total over, but it's not out yet. Chan Ho Park, who struggles with competiveness, has nothing to pitch for. On top of that, he's not making good pitches and pitching at a hitter's ballpark. Plus, his career numbers, even on his best days, are brutal outside of LA. Sox should win, but -145 is on the border of losing value. I would potentially parlay the two -- Sox & over -- because they are correlated in this sense. Chances are better that the Sox win in a blowout or the Rangers win if Chan Ho pitches out his ass... Doubtful that Burkett will lose to Park if they both get hit, because of his willingness to compete (and the teams' attitude to compete).
Angels over Yankees -110: Weaver has potential but there's a major difference between potential and on field performance. Weaver seems like he has been fighting a dead arm for some time now, although he is a very public pitcher because of his long floppy arm action. It's tough to go against the Yankees because of their strengths, but if Washburn can keep the ball in the ballpark, he should keep the Yanks from racking up a bunch of hits in a row. I like LHP going against the Yanks, especially if they have a chance to neutralize the power.
Cleveland/Seattle over 8: I'm a big fan of Pineiro, however, he makes a lot of 0-2 mistake pitches. Too many backdoor SL that catch too much of the plate. He will be a great pitcher soon, as he has a plus CB, avg FB, and avg to plus SL. But not right now. He's good for one or two mistakes a game, and in particular he tries to get that SL over to LHH, which might mean a mistake to Thome who could make him pay for one bad pitch. Sabathia has issues and is good for a few runs. No bullpen to speak of in Cle also means a good chance for some runs out of the pen. This should be a good play.
Detroit +180 over Oak: Harang isn't that great. I'm more scared of Lackey on any given day than Harang. It might be a decent, small, late shot for someone -- or a throw in for a big 'for fun' type parlay. Tough to go with a bad team, but I wouldn't go with Oakland.
Good luck.
