Cover Rates After Week 5

[GM]

All numbers according to closing #'s at CRIS, as close to kickoff as I could get....

This year:
Favs have covered 33 games (46.5%)
Dogs have covered 38 games. (53.5%)
3 Pushes.
Of the 38 dog covers, 28 were outright wins by the dog; 10 were covers with the spread only.
73.6% of the time when the dog covered, they also won the game (28/38). 13.5% of the time the ATS winner did not win the game (10/74). 4.1% of games pushed.

Week by Week Fav-Dog-Push:
Week 1: 7-8-1
Week 2: 9-7
Week 3: 6-7-1
Week 4: 6-7-1
Week 5: 5-9

Home favorites (Cover-No Cover-Push):
Week 1: 5-6-1
Week 2: 5-5
Week 3: 4-7-1
Week 4: 1-3
Week 5: 4-8
Total: 19-29-2, or 39.6%

Road favorites (Cover-No Cover-Push):
Week 1: 2-2
Week 2: 4-2
Week 3: 2-0
Week 4: 5-4-1
Week 5: 1-1
Total: 14-9-1, or 60.9%

Road teams are 43-28-3 ATS (60.6%).

Over/Unders:
Week 1: 7-9
Week 2: 6-10
Week 3: 5-9
Week 4: 6-8
Week 5: 6-7-1
Total: 30-43-1, or 41.1% Overs

Points Per Game:
Week 1: 38.8
Week 2: 37.8
Week 3: 39.0
Week 4: 38.6
Week 5: 46.1
Total: 2957 pts scored in 74 games, an average of 39.96

 

[GM]

Teams ATS Standings (SU record in brackets):

Philadelphia 4-0 (4-0)
Indianapolis 4-0-1 (4-1)

New England 3-0-1 (4-0)

NY Giants 4-1 (4-1)

NY Jets 3-1 (4-0)
Detroit 3-1 (3-1)
Seattle 3-1 (3-1)
San Diego 3-1-1 (3-2)

Pittsburgh 3-2 (4-1)
Baltimore 3-2 (3-2)
Jacksonville 3-2 (3-2)
Arizona 3-2 (1-4)
San Francisco 3-2 (1-4)

Minnesota 2-2 (3-1)
Dallas 2-2 (2-2)
Chicago 2-2 (1-3)
Carolina 2-2 (1-3)
Buffalo 2-2 (0-4)

Atlanta 2-3 (4-1)
St Louis 2-3 (3-2)
Cleveland 2-3 (2-3)
Tennessee 2-3 (2-3)
Houston 2-3 (2-3)
Oakland 2-3 (2-3)

Denver 1-2-2 (4-1)

Kansas City 1-3 (1-3)
Tampa Bay 1-3-1 (1-4)

New Orleans 1-4 (2-3)
Washington 1-4 (1-4)
Green Bay 1-4 (1-4)
Miami 1-4 (0-5)

Cincinnati 0-4 (1-3)

 

[GM]

Teams Over/Under Records:

Pittsburgh 4-1
Houston 4-1
San Diego 4-1

Minnesota 3-1

New England 2-1-1

Indianapolis 3-2
Tennessee 3-2
Oakland 3-2
New Orleans 3-2
St Louis 3-2

NY Jets 2-2
Cincinnati 2-2
Kansas City 2-2
Philadelphia 2-2
Dallas 2-2

Baltimore 2-3
Green Bay 2-3
Arizona 2-3
San Francisco 2-3

Buffalo 1-3
Detroit 1-3
Chicago 1-3
Seattle 1-3

Cleveland 1-4
Jacksonville 1-4
Denver 1-4
NY Giants 1-4
Washington 1-4
Atlanta 1-4
Tampa Bay 1-4

Carolina 0-4
Miami 0-4-1

 

[arrow]

tells me two things

tells me two things

One the numbers on over/unders will continue to come down for about two more weeks as the offenses are starting to catch up. 2). Knowing that home dogs will eventually equal out and probably become a positive number by years end, betting home team with points should be a far better percentage play then it was early in the year. Good info, thanks. :roll eyes: :142lmao:

 

[GM]

I'm not sure about #1. Just that I don't really have an opinion on that, not that I disagree necessarily.

Point 2 would seem logical. Note the numbers from last year:

Road favorites (Cover-No Cover-Push):
Week 1: 2-1
Week 2: 4-0
Week 3: 4-1
Week 4: 3-1
Week 5: 1-1
Week 6: 3-1
Week 7: 4-1

After 7 weeks, road favorites were 21-6, and had not had a single losing week. From that point on, however....

Week 8: 1-2
Week 9: 1-4-1
Week 10: 0-5-1
Week 11: 0-3
Week 12: 2-2-1
Week 13: 1-4
Week 14: 1-2
Week 15: 2-3
Week 16: 3-2
Week 17: 2-3

Final record: 34-36-3.
So despite starting the year 15 games below .500, home dogs STILL covered the majority of their games for the season.