Critical Weather Info

[Nolan Dalla]

If the weather forecasts are even close to being right, MANY games this weekend will be affected by adverse weather. Snow, winds, and below-freezing temperatures are forecast for most of the upper Midwest and Northeast.

I am posting this on Thursday night, which means things could change, but here's the outlook for Sunday:

CLEVE: Possible snow, winds, temp 26

BUFF: Snow forecast, winds, temp 25

GB: Winds, very cold, temp 23

PHILA: Winds, chance of flurries, temp around freezing

NYC: Winds, temp around freezing

CINCY: Temp in low 30s

I am on several UNDERS this week and got the plays in today. In most cases all the numbers are moving against us, which means if you wait on these totals until gametime, you could very likely lose 1-3 points on the totals. I have already seen the MIA-BUFF total drop from 42 down to 41. CLEVE-CHAR dropped from 38.5 to 37.

It was also announced that the third stringer will start for Eagles this week, which blew the line up from Rams as a pick to -2. I am laying the -2 in that game.

The message is -- you have to move now on some of these games if you want to receive the best possible numbers and line values.

SIDE NOTE: I will be back in Washington next week, which means I will not update the page (daily report) until probably Monday.

Here are this weeks plays (which will be posted tomorrow at the page):

TEASER: CLEVELAND -1.5 / BUFFALO +9
1H: BUFFALO +.5 (EVEN) vs. MIAMI
MIAMI / BUFFALO UNDER 42 (BEST BET)
CAROLINA / CLEVELAND UNDER 37.5 (BEST BET)
MINNESOTA +4 vs. ATLANTA
MINNESOTA / ATLANTA UNDER 49
ST. LOUIS -2 vs. PHILADELPHIA
ST. LOUIS / PHILADELPHIA UNDER 38
BALTIMORE / CINCINNATI OVER 38.5 (CONDITIONAL)

-- Nolan Dalla

 

[vanbasten]

thanks for the info...

thanks for the info...

agree with the bills under, but didn't get the 42 you did (40).

love the weather forecast for the cleveland game as i see a browns blowout.

would be careful with the -2 in the rams/eagles game. freeley is pretty smart and knows the system very well. playcalling will be conservative with handoffs and screen passes, which i believe he'll be capable of executing. if that goes well, birds could move the ball effectively against a marginal rams defense. this teams is closer than ever right now and everyone wants to step up for the cause. this game has also been circled for the eagles since the schedule was announced, to avenge the opening day loss last season against the rams in philly. not the same game we thought it would be 13 weeks ago, but important nonetheless.

two concerns are:

first, since losing donovan, i believe the birds were hoping to split these 2 games (niners/rams) and they got the w in san fran.

second, monday night/short week with travel across country isn't good for any team, especially one that has a day less to prep a new qb.

just my thoughts.

good luck.

 

[gardenweasel]

i agree

i agree

unless there`s a letdown factor for philly,i`ll wait for a 2.5 and buy it to 3....in my humble opinion,sans the qb,philly is an all-around better club....now you may have the weather to contend with for a dome team,faulk not being 100%,and you absolutely have the better defense....and with warner`s triple pinned finger,the cold weather will be a serious obstacle....this is the most publicly loved team this side of the old cowboys....i respect nolan,i just don`t see this one....

 

[yyz]

I think there is a misconception with the weather and unders. (Kinda like the NBA first game home after an extended road trip.)

I would not take an under, based soley on the weather. If you like an under to begin with, and want to make an extra lean, due to the weather, that's another story.

 

[djv]

Believe Miami may suffer the worst. Coming from 80 degrees to 20 is not fun. Throw some wind in and under looks good.
Cinn sounds lke most bad weather will have past and it could be high 30's.
Cleve like Buff up by the cold weather makers that can get the wind blowing. Carolina from 70 to 25 a under looks good.
Philly late starting game with backup QB under looks good.
GBay it will be more cold then windy. If you can get 40 under looks good.
NYG not sure if it will be al bad there. Check Saturday.
You got more guts playing Atl/Minny under then I do. Unless your thinking Atl covers and holds Minn to les then 17.

 

[jmizeus]

although only friday-the winds are nasty today! something like 30-35 mph! will update on sunday-leaving out of town in an hour.be back sunday morning

 

[hoss]

Line in the UK on the Buf/Miami game has now dropped to 38 with most books!!!! Still the odd bit of 42 about though - our odds compilers are in bed at this time of night got to love this time difference...

 

[greed]

Weather

Weather

Sometimes the play is the opposite with bad weather conditions as teams work with short fields due to bad kickoffs and short punts. An example was last years game with the Browns and Packers. It was windy, snowy and cold neither team could stop the other because of all the slipping on the field. One thing I do notice over the years there are alot more blowouts to the warm weather teams as they tend to give up easily after they are down.