Crying, Whining, And Tales of Harmonious Discontent

[yyz]

Crying, Whining, And Tales of Harmonious Discontent



What a week! What a "season" so far! Yes, the games shape up the same
every year. An upset here, a bad game plan there......A lousy call, a
dropped pass..... It all leads up to the same shit, year in, and year
out. Guys talking out of their asses!

"This game was fixed!"
"The refs cost me the game!"
"I am never betting again!"

.......The beat goes on......and on, and on, and on. I have been
chastised in this very forum several times over, for stating that
football is a losing proposition for most guys out there. I constantly
hear about how it can be beaten, and "I've won for years at this".
Maybe
there is a segment out there who can ride the tiger longer than most,
but we see year after year how many guys come and go during football
season. It is very tough to beat.

The question is, why do we keep wagering on a losing bet? Why do guys
constantly implode a few weeks into the season? I see more can't miss
games, and locks in football, than any other sport. (I am not just
referring to other posters, but my own views, also.) I have a few
thoughts on why this game is so tough to beat, and will share those in
a
minute. First, I need to address a few other things.

• 
  "That game was fixed!"
  
  Are games "fixed"? Absolutely! Now, don't get all ape shit, just hear
  me out. We know games have been fixed in the past, as it has been
  proven
  beyond the shadow of a doubt. Players have admitted to it, and gamblers
  have been indicted, etc. To think that all instances have been caught,
  would be sheer fantasy. To think that it won't happen in the future, is
  even more of a fantasy. But to think every flipping game that doesn't
  go
  your way has to be "fixed", is pure horseshit and sour grapes! Can you
  imagine what must go in to fixing a game? Do you think the people
  involved would let it come down to the end of the game? Even if it is
  fixed, it can still come out wrong!
  
  I have to laugh at how many threads have been started just this
  football season about "the fix was in".
  
• "Way to go, ref!"
  
  That ref cost me the win! Hey, I have to admit, I have said the same
  shit myself. It is more out of frustration, I think. Like many things
  in
  life, it easier to deflect the blame from yourself to another agency.
  It
  couldn't just be that you suck as a handicapper? In my book, if a game
  comes down to a "ref's call", you didn't get the job done in your
  assessment of the game.
  
• "I quit!"
  
  Who hasn't been there? Again, that is frustration coming through.
  Unfortunately, it would probably be the best move that most of us could
  make! The subtleties of football, and the potential for huge swings,
  will make you want to puke more than once in a given season.

So, why does this sport make us want to yank our hair out more than any
other? Here are a few of my theories on this:

• "Knowledge is "power"?
  
  More than any other sport, football, especially NFL, has every guy in
  the dorm, the office, the country club, thinking he's Jimmy the Greek.
  It just seems too easy, right? I feel into this trap last night. I took
  the under in the game based on "principle". Not a whole lot of
  handicapping, yet I tossed an above average sized wager on it, because
  it "looked good". Yeah......that's some fine handicapping! Am I
  bitching
  about my decision? No. I have to live with the fact that I fuked up,
  and
  move on.
  
  Yes, everyone has an angle on a football game.....just ask.
  
• "The pros must know!"
  
  Did you ever stop to look at this? You can find a ton of guys who like
  the game one way, and another ton who favor the other side. How is
  that?
  If the line is so far "off" on a certain game, why are there players on
  both sides? Shouldn't there be a huge disproportion to the side that
  has
  the advantage to the bad line? There are only so many viable factors to
  use in handicapping, and most of these factors are used by all of these
  guys. Power rankings, stats, numbers, whatever.......they are all
  pretty
  much the same! So WTF does one camp see, that the other doesn't? How
  can
  you have one team as your game of the year, and another guy have the
  opposite side as his? Another validation of this game being a coin flip
  that produces a 45-55% range of winners/losers for a vast majority of
  guys. Luck.......still is the most prevalent factor in you winning a
  football wager in the NFL.
  
• Minimal scoring opportunities
  
  Even in a high scoring game, points usually only come on a few
  occasions. Unlike any other major sport, the points for a single play
  can be quite differing. Let's face it.......if a team hits back to back
  three pointers in basketball, you can catch them with two regular
  scores
  and a foul shot on each of them, or at worst, three two point shots.
  Not
  a big deal. In football though, two tds will get 14 points, and you
  need
  5 field goals to catch that! Even a td and two fgs isn't good enough to
  get you there. Having said this, how important is an interception
  returned for a td? It's enormous! How many scoring opportunities come
  in
  a game? I would say a team has a realistic shot about 4-6 times a game.
  I figure the defense and special teams will set up, or score, about 2
  times a game, but that just factors into the "those lucky fukers"
  category, when you lose your bet. Handicap, and hope more luck comes
  your way, then the bookies.
  
  So that is about 6-8 scoring opportunities in a given game. This means
  every missed fg, dropped td pass, fumble, or interception, has a great
  impact on the outcome, and your "handicapping".
  
• Minimal wagering opportunities
  
  Baseball, basketball, hockey.......all have long season, with a ton of
  games. You still need to handicap, but ups and downs are a little
  easier
  to track. Weak lines a little easier to come by. Football has no such
  "grace period". One game a week, and everyone is shooting their arrows
  at the number. There are no "small games" in the NFL. The NCAA has a
  few
  better spots perhaps, but the bad bounce, and luck factor still eats
  away at those games, just like the pros. All in all......it's hard to
  find an edge in this sport.

There are more reasons/factors as to why this time of year kills so
many of us, but I can't type all day, and you guys already know what
most of them are. (Feel free to add anything you can think of!)

I can say this about more games than not in football, and you can agree
or disagree, but luck will make or ruin your season in the NFL.

If you had the Bucs last night, you have to feel like you were robbed.
If you had the Colts, you got a great break. Take it with a wry smile,
and move along.......Your "handicapping" didn't win you that game,
stud.
If you had the under......well, you were just as dumb as me!

Maybe we should just cut our losses, or count our blessings. (Depending
on which end of the financial spectrum you are on over the past 6
weeks.)

 

[OtroPex]

Nice post YYZ.

I agree "pure bull shit luck" as a wise man once put it.

As for me I had Bucs AND the Under...LMAO...ouch

 

[jigs]

Money management is the key. I can't count the times I've looked at a game and thought this is a LOCK. Some have hit and some have missed. But I have always bet roughly 3% of my balance, lock or not. I don't get rich but I do get to make the occasional withdraw and most importanly, I am able to take those bad beat games and wake up to place another bet tomorrow.

 

[AR182]

great post, yyz.


jigs, you are so right about money management. players see a game that appears to be too good to be true. so they bet alot more than their normal bet...and lose.

i used to be an emotional gambler. and i have learned over the years that gambling should be approached as a series of business transactions, which to me means that money mgt. should be practiced & emotion should be kept out.

 

[Blitz]

I see a lot of people that have no business betting on games, because they know next to nothing on the teams they are betting on. They don't properly cap games, they just bet on a "feeling" or they just like a team or hate a team, no rhyme or reason... just throwing money out the window, to have a little action on some games...