days like these

[selkirk]

so oil is up $3 and natural gas over .15 and the oil/gas producer I follow are down 1.5-2%.

TLM even announced a large discovery,.......who cares. still this shows that if the market want to go down...still though since the fed did not want to raise rates...they have never heard of a word called inflation.

so a weak dollar continues, and some of these energy names have corrected ..

CNQ at $96.22 cdn. down from a high of 111.30cdn. which was to much to fast, as the low 58.88, and traded in the 60 in Jan.

still this company as these prices prints cash and the oil sands project is going to be producing. (oil sands getting a lot of bad press in the US, even in the presidential race...makes no difference the world is short of oil).

should note: have 75% of my position on CNQ have covered calls AUG, 96, 100. written different times 7-8 for the calls.

still if CNQ weaken further and the other worht looking at.


avoid the big 3 domestic car companies, though have said this in the past, even the year GM was one of the top performers, these are grim.

GM, Ford are to risky for me, and the hedge fund who bought Chrysler must be wondering why....

only own WFC in US financials, and 25july wfc puts (got 1.50) not other financial us holdings except some preferreds, like them better than common stock.

and looking at GS.

thanks
selkirk

 

[dawgball]

Financials:

WM has to be getting close to buy-out potential from private money.

C is interesting, but I got lucky by buying those Puts back on the day of expiration. I think C is getting close to an absolute buy. Goldman Sachs recommendation are absolutely worthless. They had C as a buy at $22 and a conviction sell at $18. It's such bullshit.

BAC -- Just looked at this for the first time today. I can't believe it's down 40% in two months. What the heck is that?

Autos:

Ford and GM are both interesting plays to me with limited downside risk. The problem is that downside is slightly more likely than upside. But the upside is much larger.

Pharma:

I like MRK and ABT.

I currently own: PFE (Jan10 12.50 calls) and MSFT (sold Jul08 27.50 Puts)

Oil and Gold: Time to look for your exit, in my opinion, in a broad sense.

If AAPL sneaks below $150, it's a nice place to get in.

 

[dawgball]

I forgot to add a question:

What is the best way to directly play long the dollar?

This is a position I want to be in soon.

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

No logic in the resource stocks of late Kirk.

Dawg Tried to BAC and bought while back @ 37 think dividend would make up some slack on future frops--NOT--unless they pay 34%--bought what stock has lost since then--still holding as believe is best bet of financials to come back--but buying countrywide is scarey.

on flip side--bailed on most U.S, stocks after 06 elections
Sold
American Express @ $55
GE @ $40
C @ $54
--a penny saved is penny earned

 

[dawgball]

--a penny saved is penny earned

When I am talking to new investors, this is the point that I try to drive home the most. Limiting losers or staying away all together is most certainly the best way to suceed in investing.

This sometimes means that you will miss out on some big wins. But big losses hurt more than big wins help, for the most part.

It's also why I use options so much. When used properly, options are a great way to enhance your portfolio with taking very little extra risk.

 

[selkirk]

Dawgball there is powershares etf
UUP for bullish US dollar

and UDN for bearish US dollar.
the index is the US dollars vs. Euro, Yen, Cdn., Swiss, ect.
so it is a general US $ versus the other int. currencies.

in Canada there is a etfs (forgot the compnay name, however their have plenty of ads) double US $, bull and bear.

also have them for Ag., natural gas, gold, oil, dow, tech, ect. most have good volume.

will wait for Phizer to recover over 20 stock has always looked cheap and just keeps falling. main concern is the pipeline, and do not know if they have fixed this... will look at it over 20.

C never can understand this stock so will own others.

BAC may cut their dividend, if financials recover should do great...not sure countrywide will work out, so avoid that one to...

WFC may also follow these down however their latest results were decent so will hold and the puts for now.

believe FORD GM and Chrysler face many large problems and will have to reduce their costs much more. probably a winner out of this group but do not know which one. very tough industry.

like most of my resource plays and believe they are still not CHEAP CHEAP but good to fair value. will wait until end of AUG since have many options in JUly and aug. in this sector.

DTB always good to sell stocks espciallly when they breakdown...

run into 3-4 people who instead of selling or even keeping the small amount they own acually buy more of a losing position.

in fact they tell me how happy they are since they can buy more 30% less.....oh joy....

if somebody told me 10 years ago the hottest stocks would be coal and ag would never have believe them, just shows anything can happen.

remember when agrium would trade at 8 PE and 7PE next years, and no one would care....


thanks
selkirk

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

Dawgball there is powershares etf
UUP for bullish US dollar

and UDN for bearish US dollar.
the index is the US dollars vs. Euro, Yen, Cdn., Swiss, ect.
so it is a general US $ versus the other int. currencies.

in Canada there is a etfs (forgot the compnay name, however their have plenty of ads) double US $, bull and bear.

also have them for Ag., natural gas, gold, oil, dow, tech, ect. most have good volume.

will wait for Phizer to recover over 20 stock has always looked cheap and just keeps falling. main concern is the pipeline, and do not know if they have fixed this... will look at it over 20.

C never can understand this stock so will own others.

BAC may cut their dividend, if financials recover should do great...not sure countrywide will work out, so avoid that one to...
WFC may also follow these down however their latest results were decent so will hold and the puts for now.

believe FORD GM and Chrysler face many large problems and will have to reduce their costs much more. probably a winner out of this group but do not know which one. very tough industry.

like most of my resource plays and believe they are still not CHEAP CHEAP but good to fair value. will wait until end of AUG since have many options in JUly and aug. in this sector.

DTB always good to sell stocks espciallly when they breakdown...

run into 3-4 people who instead of selling or even keeping the small amount they own acually buy more of a losing position.

in fact they tell me how happy they are since they can buy more 30% less.....oh joy....

if somebody told me 10 years ago the hottest stocks would be coal and ag would never have believe them, just shows anything can happen.

remember when agrium would trade at 8 PE and 7PE next years, and no one would care....


thanks
selkirk

BAC Good call Kirk Was hoping it would hang on till recovery but sold on stop last week--got a couple of div payment but still took about 33% hit.

Been looking for something to replace it this morning--that would not subject to financial and oil swings--and be somewhat recession proof.

Looking hard at a nasty ole habit stock--Altria
Tobbaco and beer

With exception of their product line--can't find any faults
--any thoughts

 

[kneifl]

tell me about it... but days, how about the last 2 weeks....

tell me about it... but days, how about the last 2 weeks....

Even commodities have taken a hit recently.

I have seen a HUGE loss in the last 2 weeks in my IRA due to the market. Still a little up on the year (CGMFX) but not much. Sometimes I wonder why I look at it (my IRA) at all, but everybody should study the markets. Would not buy or sell stock right now as it is uncertain where this market is going to go in the next few months. One thing is for sure though - we are in a recession right now and anybody who tells you any different needs to lay off the lead pipe. Frustrating because I've made money (and lost money) buying, selling, and shorting stocks before.

kneifl

 

[selkirk]

DTB MO is not a bad stock here. it pays a good yield and could be seen as a defensive stock, should trade at less than 15X next years earnings, though it is low growth.

the busniess generates cash, some of which can be used for buybacks and div increases, there is a concept.

like Kneifl has pointed out the last few weeks, maybe month or two, have been very difficult, so I would only pick up a small position, and dollar cost average in to any position. normally would just buy in to a stock however this market trend has been brutal and downward, so you do not have to stand in front of the train to prove a point.

in other words, buy small positons, and if you want to add to positons make sure the stock has not broken down.

Kneifl the gains in the energy field have been pretty good the last fews years, even in the first q.

some of my energy stocks went up over 30% in a few weeks, some barly moved. anyways if an investor has large gains in energy and ag, stocks, they will sell these winners to raise cash.

many investors sell there winners so energy and ag stocks could be hit. many of them are still cheap however not adding to any positons for the next 30 days, in fact will lose about 50-60% of posiitons because of covered calls.

talked to a good freind who also trades stocks, there is two stocks that pay a good yield and that in the past we would trade back and forth, especially when they hit a certain level.

well now wait to see if can get them 10-15% lower, love the stocks, just not the market and feel there is no rush to buy them until things turn

own a very small amount in MO and the int. spin off, less than 10K. have had it for a while....bought some other blue chip US companies at the same time but they have all been sold except MCD.

worse holdings this year.
HD (small position have not idea why did not have 15% stop on this.....dumb)
CTC.a Cdn. tire, great company though why own a cdn. retailer located mostly in ont.
X toronto stock exhcange is cheap, the only problem could be cheaper.

have calls covered and uncovered on these positions, still a loss on all of them.

winners have been in energy, one telco, and ag has been great.

thanks
selkirk