Daytona 500

T

toastonastick

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Little early, but testing has started. So time to start capping this race. I hate betting on the plate races, they can be such a crapshoot. I will be posting plays weekly here for almost every race.

Looking to play some more matchups this year over previous. 2 to 5 matchups a week and a couple of drivers for the win. Showed a small profit last year of a little over 10 units.

Testing speeds below:

Non drafting speeds.

Best Driver Speeds After Day 5 - ALL Non Drafting
Both Sessions Jan 9-11 and 16-18, 2006
Rank Car# Driver Manu Speed Fast When
1 24 Jeff Gordon Chevy 188.466 Jan 10 PM
2 5 Kyle Busch Chevy 188.119 Jan 17 PM
3 36a Bill Elliott Chevy 188.025 Jan 10 PM
4 38a Elliott Sadler Ford 187.594 Jan 10 PM
5 48 Jimmie Johnson Chevy 187.582 Jan 10 PM
6 14b Sterling Marlin Chevy 187.110 Jan 16 PM
7 17a Matt Kenseth Ford 186.982 Jan 10 PM
8 07a Clint Bowyer Chevy 186.896 Jan 17 PM
9 29a Kevin Harvick Chevy 186.815 Jan 17 PM
10 10a Scott Riggs Dodge 186.776 Jan 16 PM
11 20a Mike Mclaughlin Chevy 186.614 Jan 10 PM
12 88b Dale Jarrett Ford 186.544 Jan 17 PM
13 19a Jeremy Mayfield Dodge 186.521 Jan 10 PM
14 26a Jamie McMurray Ford 186.494 Jan 16 PM
15 01a Joe Nemechek Chevy 186.405 Jan 16 PM
16 25a David Green Chevy 186.278 Jan 16 PM
17 16b Greg Biffle Ford 186.139 Jan 16 AM
18 43a Bobby Labonte Dodge 186.070 Jan 10 PM
19 66 Jeff Green Chevy 186.000 Jan 17 PM
20 11b Denny Hamlin Chevy 185.954 Jan 16 PM
21 31 Jeff Burton Chevy 185.935 Jan 10 PM
22 96r Terry Labonte Chevy 185.889 Jan 16 PM
23 2a Kurt Busch Dodge 185.881 Jan 16 PM
24 80b Jeff Fuller Chevy 185.713 Jan 10 AM
25 6a Mark Martin Ford 185.636 Jan 16 PM
26 8a Dale Earnhardt Jr. Chevy 185.628 Jan 9 AM
27 18b J.J. Yeley Chevy 185.578 Jan 16 PM
28 99a Carl Edwards Ford 185.437 Jan 16 PM
29 4 Scott Wimmer Chevy 185.376 Jan 9 PM
30 41 Reed Sorenson Dodge 185.166 Jan 10 PM
31 45 Kyle Petty Dodge 185.147 Jan 17 PM
32 00b Hermie Sadler Ford 185.060 Jan 16 PM
33 55 Michael Waltrip Dodge 185.025 Jan 16 AM
34 21b Ken Schrader Ford 185.018 Jan 10 PM
35 42 Casey Mears Dodge 185.014 Jan 16 PM
36 9a Kasey Kahne Dodge 184.759 Jan 9 PM
37 23a Mike Skinner Dodge 184.668 Jan 10 AM
38 12b Ryan Newman Dodge 184.525 Jan 9 AM
39 7 Robby Gordon Chevy 184.313 Jan 17 PM
40 61a Kevin Lepage Chevy 184.264 Jan 17 PM
41 32 Travis Kvapil Chevy 184.188 Jan 16 PM
42 1b Martin Truex Jr. Chevy 184.019 Jan 9 AM
43 15 Paul Menard Chevy 184.008 Jan 16 PM
44 52a Larry Gunselman Chevy 183.914 Jan 16 PM
45 49a Brent Sherman Dodge 183.887 Jan 16 PM
46 40x David Stemme Dodge 183.880 Jan 9 PM
47 22a Dave Blaney Dodge 183.681 Jan 16 PM
48 78b Kenny Wallace Chevy 183.105 Jan 9 PM
49 09 Mike Wallace Dodge 183.009 Jan 16 AM
50 92a Chad Chaffin Chevy 182.726 Jan 16 PM
51 89 Morgan Shepherd Ford 182.715 Jan 17 PM
52 95 Stanton Barrett Chevy 182.526 Jan 16 PM
53 27 Kirk Shelmerdine Chevy 181.840 Jan 16 PM

(Compiled from all the speeds reported)(1-17-2006)
 
T

toastonastick

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Nov 25, 2003
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Drafting speeds:

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
BEST DRAFTING SPEEDs - Jan 11&18, 2006
Rank Car# Driver Manu Speed When
1 5a Kyle Busch Chevy 190.251 Jan 18 PM
2 07 Clint Bowyer Chevy 190.158 Jan 18 PM
3 45a Kyle Petty Dodge 190.070 Jan 18 PM
4 42x Casey Mears Dodge 189.962 Jan 18 PM
5 15 Paul Menard Chevy 189.934 Jan 18 PM
6 11a Denny Hamlin Chevy 189.913 Jan 18 PM
7 14b Sterling Marlin Chevy 189.685 Jan 18 PM
8 10a Scott Riggs Dodge 189.557 Jan 18 PM
9 24b Jeff Gordon Chevy 189.298 Jan 11 PM
10 88b Dale Jarrett Ford 189.215 Jan 18 AM
11 48b Jimmie Johnson Chevy 189.195 Jan 11 PM
12 22 Dave Blaney Dodge 189.183 Jan 18 PM
13 17b Matt Kenseth Ford 189.024 Jan 11 PM
14 7 Robby Gordon Chevy 189.024 Jan 18 PM
15 2a Kurt Busch Dodge 189.020 Jan 18 PM
16 09 Mike Wallace Dodge 189.012 Jan 18 AM
17 40x David Stremme Dodge 189.000 Jan 11 PM
18 92a Chad Chaffin Chevy 188.996 Jan 18 PM
19 25b David Green Chevy 188.980 Jan 18 PM
20 16a Greg Biffle Ford 188.976 Jan 18 PM
21 99b Carl Edwards Ford 188.945 Jan 18 AM
22 61a Kevin Lepage Chevy 188.913 Jan 18 PM
23 95 Stanton Barrett Chevy 188.865 Jan 18 PM
24 26b Jamie McMurray Ford 188.834 Jan 18 AM
25 01b Joe Nemechek Chevy 188.830 Jan 18 PM
26 96r Terry Labonte Chevy 188.798 Jan 18 PM
27 29 Kevin Harvick Chevy 188.747 Jan 18 PM
28 6a Mark Martin Ford 188.735 Jan 18 PM
29 1a Martin Truex, Jr. Chevy 188.663 Jan 11 PM
30 66 Jeff Green Chevy 188.497 Jan 18 PM
31 80b Jeff Fuller Chevy 188.426 Jan 11 PM
32 12b Ryan Newman Dodge 188.229 Jan 11 PM
33 55 Michael Waltrip Dodge 188.225 Jan 18 AM
34 8a Dale Earnhardt, Jr. Chevy 188.222 Jan 11 PM
35 31x Jeff Burton Chevy 188.103 Jan 11 PM
36 20a Mike Mclaughlin Chevy 188.029 Jan 11 PM
37 43b Bobby Labonte Dodge 187.903 Jan 11 PM
38 18a J.J. Yeley Chevy 187.825 Jan 18 AM
39 9b Kasey Kahne Dodge 187.813 Jan 11 PM
40 23a Mike Skinner Dodge 187.739 Jan 11 PM
41 38a Elliott Sadler Ford 187.649 Jan 11 AM
42 19a Jeremy Mayfield Dodge 187.613 Jan 11 PM
43 41 Reed Sorenson Dodge 187.613 Jan 11 PM
44 36b Bill Elliott Chevy 187.578 Jan 11 PM
45 21a Ken Schrader Ford 187.531 Jan 11 PM
46 89 Morgan Shepherd Ford 187.375 Jan 18 AM
47 49a Brent Sherman Dodge 187.204 Jan 18 PM
48 32a Travis Kvapil Chevy 187.165 Jan 18 PM
49 4 Scott Wimmer Chevy 185.801 Jan 11 PM
50 00a Hermie Sadler Ford 184.419 Jan 18 PM
51 27 Kirk Shelmerdine Chevy 182.500 Jan 18 AM

(Compiled from all the speeds reported)(1-18-2006)
 
T

toastonastick

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Nov 25, 2003
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Well, the MB2 boys did not look that strong in the shootout. Granted they werent in their 500 cars.

Might have to wait for the twin 125's to make my plays.
 
J

jharris

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Aug 23, 2005
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What's your thoughts on the Richard Childress Racing stable for the weekend? Only Harvick was in the shootout but was done early. All three cars looked strong in qual. and prac. Where can i find odds for each driver? Thanks for your help and i will put my picks in after the 125's (150's)
 
T

toastonastick

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Nov 25, 2003
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Childress has always had a strong plate program and Burton suprised a lot people in getting the pole. Qualifying at Daytona and Talladega can be a crapshoot. One bad gust of wind and it throws that lap down the shitter.

As far as the race goes, I think there is some good value in the Childress cars. Heres the numbers I'm seeing on them

K.Harvick +2500
J.Burton +6000
C. Bowyer +15000 :scared

Not very often you can get 60-1 odds on the pole winner. These are from sportsbook.com

Bowyer might be a stretch. I do think he'll perform this year.


Harvick has a little value at 25-1, but I need to see him in the draft first.
 
T

toastonastick

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looking at this again, I had to pull the trigger on Burton. After checking around. got it at Sportsbook.com

J.Burton +6000 1/2 unit
 
Looselugs

Looselugs

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Just seen it on the local news. Jimmy Johnson crew chief Chad Knaus kicked out of the Daytona 500 for cheating.
 
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T

toastonastick

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Nov 25, 2003
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okay-

first matchup-

Kyle Busch over Dale Jarrett- even money. 3 units
got this at sportsbook.

More of play on Jarrett having a crappy car in the draft. I just hope kyle can keep his emotions in check.

nice pick up Chicago! I'm from the northwest side, Cary, Crystal lake area.
 
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T

toastonastick

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Nov 25, 2003
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I really think the Yates cars will struggle in the draft. Sadler and Jarrett have been bet down hard. My opinion is the practice speeds have skewed their numbers. This being said, I think Jarrett is the weaker play of the two and thats why I'm going against him.

And the shitty drafting practices I've seen.
 
Hailmary

Hailmary

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My book has my two drivers paired against each other. Now I am not sure who I want to bet on or which match ups are best. T. Stew and J. John are the two I bet on most and they are paired against each other. I am thinking about taking Newman what are your thoughts? THanks

Nascar Matchups Game Spread Money Line Total Points
Sun 2/19 02:20PM
251 J Gordon -125
252 D Earnhardt Jr. -105
* Game Note: THE DAYTONA 500 - ONE LAP MUST BE COMPLETED FOR ACTION
Sun 2/19 02:20PM
253 T Stewart -140
254 J Johnson +110
* Game Note: THE DAYTONA 500 - ONE LAP MUST BE COMPLETED FOR ACTION
Sun 2/19 02:20PM
255 C Edwards -120
256 Kurt Busch -110
* Game Note: THE DAYTONA 500 - ONE LAP MUST BE COMPLETED FOR ACTION
Sun 2/19 02:20PM
257 M Martin -110
258 G Biffle -120
* Game Note: THE DAYTONA 500 - ONE LAP MUST BE COMPLETED FOR ACTION
Sun 2/19 02:20PM
259 E Sadler -145
260 D Jarrett +115
* Game Note: THE DAYTONA 500 - ONE LAP MUST BE COMPLETED FOR ACTION
Sun 2/19 02:20PM
261 K Harvick +100
262 Kyle Busch -130
* Game Note: THE DAYTONA 500 - ONE LAP MUST BE COMPLETED FOR ACTION
Sun 2/19 02:20PM
263 K Kahne -115
264 J Mayfield -115
* Game Note: THE DAYTONA 500 - ONE LAP MUST BE COMPLETED FOR ACTION
Sun 2/19 02:20PM
265 M Kenseth +105
266 J Mcmurray -135
* Game Note: THE DAYTONA 500 - ONE LAP MUST BE COMPLETED FOR ACTION
Sun 2/19 02:20PM
267 B Vickers +135
268 J Burton -165
* Game Note: THE DAYTONA 500 - ONE LAP MUST BE COMPLETED FOR ACTION
Sun 2/19 02:20PM
269 C Mears -135
270 K Schrader +105
* Game Note: THE DAYTONA 500 - ONE LAP MUST BE COMPLETED FOR ACTION
Sun 2/19 02:20PM
271 J Burton +105
272 Kyle Busch -135
* Game Note: THE DAYTONA 500 - ONE LAP MUST BE COMPLETED FOR ACTION
Sun 2/19 02:20PM
273 D Jarrett -110
274 M Martin -120
* Game Note: THE DAYTONA 500 - ONE LAP MUST BE COMPLETED FOR ACTION
Sun 2/19 02:20PM
275 B Vickers -115
276 J Mayfield -115
* Game Note: THE DAYTONA 500 - ONE LAP MUST BE COMPLETED FOR ACTION
Sun 2/19 02:20PM
277 R Newman +105
278 G Biffle -135
* Game Note: THE DAYTONA 500 - ONE LAP MUST BE COMPLETED FOR ACTION
Sun 2/19 02:20PM
279 K Harvick +110
280 E Sadler -140
* Game Note: THE DAYTONA 500 - ONE LAP MUST BE COMPLETED FOR ACTION
Sun 2/19 02:20PM
281 J Mcmurray -135
282 Kurt Busch +105
* Game Note: THE DAYTONA 500 - ONE LAP MUST BE COMPLETED FOR ACTION
Sun 2/19 02:20PM
283 B Labonte -115
284 D Hamlin -115
* Game Note: THE DAYTONA 500 - ONE LAP MUST BE COMPLETED FOR ACTION
 
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