Nice slate of games today--10 in all--and I've got lots of opInIons on just about all of 'em, but I've seen only 2 spots where I felt so inclined as to pull the trigger...so far...
playing...
BRUINS over Blues (ML) -150
Blues 6-3-1-0 on the road thus far, but the 3-5-1-1 over the past 10 is closer to what I've been expecting from them in the early going. Pronger is a force and has been a crucial component in any success the Blues have had over the past several years. He's still out. A few other minor components missing for the Blues right now (though goalie Johnson never impressed me that much anyway; Brathwaite is close enough to his equal, by my judgement...'course, his last game, Sat., he allowed the Devils--typically scoring 1-2 goals the last while--to get a 5th one past him in OT). Bruins hotter than hell, with reigning player-of-the-week Thornton (second only to Super-Mario in scoring right now) leading the club to an 8-1-1-0 mark over the past ten, and a 9-1-1-0 home record overall. That's the key here, with the Bruins at home--I think the odds of the Blues pulling the outright win in this one are pretty slim (I 'used the force' to come up with app. 28%, not including ties...nevermind...
I see that the Blues have only been in 2 ties this year, and the Bruins only 3, so maybe a -1/2 -110 would've been a better play, but there have been a ridiculous # of games going into overtime this year, so I decided to pay for the safety-net. Blues would be thrilled to get a point out of this one.
Bruins -150 needs better than 60% probability for value.
I gave Bruins 72.
Blues 28.
I'm tempted to call a (seemingly high) 15% chance of a tie. Gotta knock 15 off the above #'s, and I'll do so by grabbing 8 off of the Blues and 7 from the Bruins...
gives me...
15 tie
20 Blues
65 Bruins.
Bruins -150 needs better than 60% probability for value.
Bruins -1/2 -110 needs better than 52.4% for value.
(me's gonna play a-round and comp-are)
difference of 7.6, but I allow 15 for the tie...hmmm...
65 win-60 needed (-150) shows just 5 over, or
a 65% prob equals about a -185 line, and I get -150, or 35 points over.
65 win-53 (say) needed (-110) shows 12 over, or (again)
a 65% prob equals about a -185 line, the -110 being 75 points over.
One way to look at it...
makes the puck-line appear to be the play of choice, but...
I'll check it out another way...
Chances to LosE...
Bruins -150 needs under 40% probability of losing.
Bruins -1/2 -110 needs under 47.6 (say 48, for this case) probability of losing.
ML (-150) has only a 20% chance of losing (by my Jedi numbers above).
PL (-1/2 -110) has a 35% chance of losing.
ML, 40-20 shows 20 points under, while
PL, 48-35 shows only 13 points under.
hmmm...
I could futz around with these numbers more, say by creating a ratio with the % of losing over the maximum % of losing allowable by the line...e.g.
20 (jedi)
---
40 (-150)
gives only a 50% mark, while
35 (jedi2)
---
48 (-110)
gives a much larger 72.9 % of the max-lose-probability #.
FFSAke:shrug:
Just give me the Bruins.
(If any of this made sense, please call my doctor):wink:
Also playing...
(drumroll...)
NYRANGERS -1/2 -140 over Blue Jackets.
I ain't laying -200 here, for the ML, but I see the Rangers pulling this one out before the home crowd. Rangers have burned me quite a bit over the past couple of years, but I can't resist the generous lines that the books have been running with these guys. Mind you, this one doesn't exactly fall into that category, but Columbus 2-5-2-1 in their last ten, and 2-6-1-1 on the road this season, is bad ... and will probably get worse. This team is only 2 games under .500 right now, mostly by catching some other clubs at vulnerable times. At least last year they had some goaltending. Last for Jackets was a 4-2 home loss on Sat. night to the resurgent (riiiight... ) Carolina Hurricanes. Maybe they'll be looser on the road, and the home crowd in NY doesn't exactly provide much of an intimidating atmosphere for the visitors, but I just don't thInk that the BJ's can keep up with the firepower of the HoF squad. The over is tempting (6), but I'm passing there...I'd play the Rangers over 3, if I could get it, but my only option is 3.5 (-110 on the over) so I'll pass.
Others I like but have passed on (thus far)...
Canucks over NYISLANDERS -155
Sharks over COYOTES -120
Possible last-second total additions include...
Blues@BRUINS over 5 1/2 -115
Ducks@WINGS over 5 -120
Flames@AVS under 5 -105
Happy Hunting
playing...
BRUINS over Blues (ML) -150
Blues 6-3-1-0 on the road thus far, but the 3-5-1-1 over the past 10 is closer to what I've been expecting from them in the early going. Pronger is a force and has been a crucial component in any success the Blues have had over the past several years. He's still out. A few other minor components missing for the Blues right now (though goalie Johnson never impressed me that much anyway; Brathwaite is close enough to his equal, by my judgement...'course, his last game, Sat., he allowed the Devils--typically scoring 1-2 goals the last while--to get a 5th one past him in OT). Bruins hotter than hell, with reigning player-of-the-week Thornton (second only to Super-Mario in scoring right now) leading the club to an 8-1-1-0 mark over the past ten, and a 9-1-1-0 home record overall. That's the key here, with the Bruins at home--I think the odds of the Blues pulling the outright win in this one are pretty slim (I 'used the force' to come up with app. 28%, not including ties...nevermind...
I see that the Blues have only been in 2 ties this year, and the Bruins only 3, so maybe a -1/2 -110 would've been a better play, but there have been a ridiculous # of games going into overtime this year, so I decided to pay for the safety-net. Blues would be thrilled to get a point out of this one.
Bruins -150 needs better than 60% probability for value.
I gave Bruins 72.
Blues 28.
I'm tempted to call a (seemingly high) 15% chance of a tie. Gotta knock 15 off the above #'s, and I'll do so by grabbing 8 off of the Blues and 7 from the Bruins...
gives me...
15 tie
20 Blues
65 Bruins.
Bruins -150 needs better than 60% probability for value.
Bruins -1/2 -110 needs better than 52.4% for value.
(me's gonna play a-round and comp-are)
difference of 7.6, but I allow 15 for the tie...hmmm...
65 win-60 needed (-150) shows just 5 over, or
a 65% prob equals about a -185 line, and I get -150, or 35 points over.
65 win-53 (say) needed (-110) shows 12 over, or (again)
a 65% prob equals about a -185 line, the -110 being 75 points over.
One way to look at it...
makes the puck-line appear to be the play of choice, but...
I'll check it out another way...
Chances to LosE...
Bruins -150 needs under 40% probability of losing.
Bruins -1/2 -110 needs under 47.6 (say 48, for this case) probability of losing.
ML (-150) has only a 20% chance of losing (by my Jedi numbers above).
PL (-1/2 -110) has a 35% chance of losing.
ML, 40-20 shows 20 points under, while
PL, 48-35 shows only 13 points under.
hmmm...
I could futz around with these numbers more, say by creating a ratio with the % of losing over the maximum % of losing allowable by the line...e.g.
20 (jedi)
---
40 (-150)
gives only a 50% mark, while
35 (jedi2)
---
48 (-110)
gives a much larger 72.9 % of the max-lose-probability #.
FFSAke:shrug:
Just give me the Bruins.
(If any of this made sense, please call my doctor):wink:
Also playing...
(drumroll...)
NYRANGERS -1/2 -140 over Blue Jackets.
I ain't laying -200 here, for the ML, but I see the Rangers pulling this one out before the home crowd. Rangers have burned me quite a bit over the past couple of years, but I can't resist the generous lines that the books have been running with these guys. Mind you, this one doesn't exactly fall into that category, but Columbus 2-5-2-1 in their last ten, and 2-6-1-1 on the road this season, is bad ... and will probably get worse. This team is only 2 games under .500 right now, mostly by catching some other clubs at vulnerable times. At least last year they had some goaltending. Last for Jackets was a 4-2 home loss on Sat. night to the resurgent (riiiight...
) Carolina Hurricanes. Maybe they'll be looser on the road, and the home crowd in NY doesn't exactly provide much of an intimidating atmosphere for the visitors, but I just don't thInk that the BJ's can keep up with the firepower of the HoF squad. The over is tempting (6), but I'm passing there...I'd play the Rangers over 3, if I could get it, but my only option is 3.5 (-110 on the over) so I'll pass.Others I like but have passed on (thus far)...
Canucks over NYISLANDERS -155
Sharks over COYOTES -120
Possible last-second total additions include...
Blues@BRUINS over 5 1/2 -115
Ducks@WINGS over 5 -120
Flames@AVS under 5 -105
Happy Hunting
