Doc,
My reasoning would probably be considered piss-poor by 'traditional' cappers. I'm not really a guy who crunches numbers, researches trends, etc. I make my plays based on situations. I VERY rarely play road teams in college or pros, and I have a rule of never laying more than 3 points on the road, no matter who is playing.
I can't disagree with what you say about Denver. Yes, Pitt is absolutely the better team. Yes, Denver's homefield advantage is not nearly what it used to be. Yes Denver is banged up. Having said all that, I'm guessing Denver plays well tonight. National TV audience, at home, a chance to stay within a 1/2 game of KC for the division lead, I just don't see them laying an egg tonight.
Again, Pitt is the better team, but there's no reason whatsoever to believe they can't lose this game. They lost on the road to the Cardinals, so I don't think it's a given that they will come in to Denver and blow the doors off the joint.
Just my opinion and it's not a huge play for me. I just like the home dog tonight.
GL...