Derby pick

[Penguinfan]

After making a case for nearly every horse in the field I have come to the conclusion that the most likely pace scenario will have to be a very slow opening quarter with the speed demons trying to save a little something for the stretch run which sets up the race for #3 Lion Heart. He should get clear of the field early and not be pressed too much, so a solid ride by Mike Smith and this one could go all 10 furlongs gate to wire. If you bet this horse and the opening quarter goes quick you can tear up your ticket at the half way mark.

Good Luck
Penguinfan

 

[sharky17]

Penguinfan,

I am new to Madjack's, but have been hanging around here for the last year or so and have followed some of your racing picks that you have posted, and I respect the opinions that you have shared.

I am an avid horse racing fan, but also have more experience with the standardbreds. Anyway, does it concern you that Lion Heart has been unable to get the job done this year off the front end going a mile and 1 1/8 miles? I do agree that Lion Heart may be the lone speed in the race, but the stalkers look to be strong as well.

I was originally ready to put all my eggs in Tapit's barn, but it looks like he is going to get more attention at the windows than I anticipated. (He is getting the lowest price in the Oaks / Derby double with Ashado). I am also concerned about the outside post he has drawn. I REALLY want to go with Read the Footnotes, but the long layoff really concerns me.

I guess I am still on the fence?? :shrug:

Any other thoughts would be appreciated,

Sharky

 

[terpfan2]

I agree with your doubts about Lion Heart. Although he should have no problem getting a lead with a good start from the 3 hole I think many of the outside horses will be forced to gun for the lead to avoid getting hung wide. The field seems to big to let one horse get an uncontested lead. And you are right (I think) that if he couldn't hold on at 9F he is unlikely to get 10F. Add to this only mediocre mud breeding and I think a win is not likely.

BUT, if no one pressures him it maybe a different race ala War Emblem a couple years ago! I prefer a stalker, namely Master David coming from a few lengths off the pace to take this race.

Good Luck!

 

[sharky17]

Thanks Terpfan......Appreciate your thoughts.

You know, you may be onto something with Master David? I sort of dismissed him the first couple of times through, but it looks like he should be able to work himself out a nice stalking trip as you mentioned, and wouldn't it be ironic if Frankel got his elusive Kentucky Derby with a possibly overlooked horse such as this one, after all the hype last year with Empire Maker?

I know you mentioned earlier that you liked Tapit, and I still feel he may have the most talent in the field, but man, my eyes keep wandering back to Read the Footnotes.

Good Luck.

 

[verbalkint]

Cant go wrong going with the speed in any race. I like speed in route races even more because it is often overlooked and you get a better price.
This is even more evident in the derby where obvious speed horses have paid huge. Spend a Buck and War Emblem come to mind, so it does happen.

 

[sharky17]

I was just trying to remember.....Did Monarchos get loose on the lead as well??

 

[Penguinfan]

Wow, you guys have mentioned just about every horse I was considering, Master David and Tapit are certainly solid choices. I am going with Lion Heart simply because I think the pace of this race should (fingers crossed) set up nicly for him. If I am wrong about the early pace of this race then he may well finish up the track, I just don't see anyone really thinking they have a horse to bust out some rediculous early fraction AND hold on for 10 furlongs, there just isn't a horse that can do it in this field. I kinda see the race setting up with nobody close on either side of Lion Heart in the gate with alot of early speed, so he should not have to go balls to the walls to get the lead or put up with much trouble out of the gate putting him on or near the lead at the first turn and not being pressured to set a blistering pace, if that happens and I could bet the race at the first turn I would throw down like nobodys business on him! That being said, there are a ton of possibilities as far as the pace scenario goes in this one, I am just taking what I see as the most likely setup.

Good Luck, hope to see some of you around here tomorrow before the race for some last minute conversation.

 

[Eddie Haskell]

Sharky:

I couldn't disagree with you more. I respect no opinions that penguinfan has posted. Just kidding boys.

Although every time I start handicapping I lose weight in my wallet, don't you think Lion Heart and Smarty Jones are going to be talking about what there going to do that night as they travel down the backstretch together.

At the very least, I would think, based on his running style that Smarty Jones will either be running with Lion Heart or have his nose up his ass through the first 6 furlongs. I don't think either will win but I wouldn't leave them out of the exotics.

My experience has been that the derby winner usually comes out of mid-pack in the final turn. I'm looking for that style. By the way, I'm about 100 miles northeast of Louisville. Weather calls for rain off and on all day with thunderstorms. Probably muddy.

Good luck to all but, never, never trust anything Penguinfan says. Especially in a race with only phillies. I'm sure he picked the last place finishers in the Oaks.

Ed

 

[sharky17]

Thanks Eddie.......I can sympathize with Penguinfan on the fillies, though. I can't figure the females out either. Damn women.....

It must be raining right through from Louisville to mid-western Ontario, because it's pizzing down here as well this morning. Just another variable to sort through in this mess is who may handle the track best?

 

[Penguinfan]

Edward, after I shake off the shock of actually seeing you post in a forum that includes handicapping I am now able to respond to your well though out point about Smarty Jones, well thought out, wrong, but well thought out. Lion Heart gets the advantage of breaking from am post position where he will not be challenged directly out of the gate to the first turn as there is no early speed shown from the 2,4, or 6 (5 is scratched), Smarty Jones will have to come out in top gear and race hard with speed balls Read The Footnotes on his right and Pollards Vision anly 2 spots to his left, Read The Footnotes should ensure that Smart Jones will have to race wide and hard in the first turn using up enough energy to ruin him for any kind of stretch run while Lion Heart should cruise to the rail in the first turn and have things pretty much his way.

If this were a golf match consider Lion Heart as MadJack and Smart Jones as yourself, by the turn in the Atlantic City golf match you will have nothing left and Jack will have it his way down the stretch.

Honored by your presence
Penguinfan

 

[verbalkint]

My selection, Lion Heart , how can you beat a name like that.

Eddie, wasnt Ward always hard on the Beaver?

 

[zagnut]

derby

derby

limehouse 30-1

 

[ageecee]

Im stuck between Borrego and Imperialism..

 

[Eddie Haskell]

Verbalkint:

Initially always, but as the Beaver got older, only once or twice a month.

Eddie

 

[Eddie Haskell]

Nice points, Pengy. It is a long way to the first turn at Churchill and maybe Elliott can rate him (although the form doesn't show it). But like I said, I don't think either can win (when was the last time a horse wired the 1 1/4 with a lot of horses initially pressing for position) and my handicapping ability to pick a winner is similar to Dr. Freezes ability to type a rationale post.

By the way, in and out sun here in the Queen City all morning with no rain. Currently (11:45AM) kinda blue skies. Ground is starting to dry out. I think first post is coming right up (or has already gone off) should be able to get track conditions.

Ed

 

[Penguinfan]

This may play a factor, with the scratch of 2 horses they will be moving the field outward and not using the 1 or 2 post positions, the horses will of course wear their drawn numbers, but will break from the 3 post outward, this will clear room for the 1 horse to give Lion Heart trouble in the early going.

Eddie, War Emblem went gate to wire when he won the Derby.

 

[baby johnson]

playin exacta with lion heart and tapit

jr capper

 

[Hamster]

Imperialism...has won twice on sloppy tracks...Clm 32k and Alw20k)

The Cliff's Edge

Castledale

 

[djv]

They keep saying rain by the call time. That happens and the speed is gone. Whats anyones idea on a mudder or two.

 

[Penguinfan]

I hope Mike Smith dies a slow and painful death and soon.