Det / Mia Over 162 ?

[Nolan Dalla]

I'm putting this out in hopes of getting back some feedback. What am I missing about this game where the OVER looks to be a terrific value? I realize MIA doesn't score many points, and that DET has been putting on the pressure defensively, but this total appears to be at least 5-6 points too low. These two teams scored 167 points two nights ago and now play a re-match. My suspicion is that since the same matchups will take place again tonight, the players have had 48 hours to think about moves and how to move the ball inside (I have no statistical evidence to prove this -- it's just a thought). There is also the point that this total is EXTREMELY low for any NBA game. Once we get 25+ points away from the scoring mean, we reach a point of resistance. What this means is -- it's much easier for a game like this to go OVER the total by ten points than UNDER the total by ten points. The 5-6 point differential (assuming you agree this total should be ~167) is AMPLIFIED because the points themselves are a greater fraction of the overall total, and for the total to fall below 162 calls for a game way below the league average for scoring. To be honest, I have not watched these two teams much this season, so I can't comment on the relative strengths and weaknesses of the teams (DET is obviously playing way above expectations). For that reason, I hope to get some feedback before gametime -- in one hour. Finally, this is expected to be a fairly close game as evidenced by the line, so that plays into an OVER as well, since we get the possible intentional foul factor at game's end. Any thoughts or comments?

Thanks,

Nolan Dalla

 

[S-Boom]

Nolan, first off I have to give you mad props for all you do on this site. I've been known to piggyback you once in a while.
In terms of this Over 161 (Now at Oly), I also see good value in it. Miami is playing better ball of late because their team is finally starting to gel. They've been more better on offense lately (Better FG % and More Assists). The Pistons are a bunch of bloodhounds on D but they had a tough time w/Miami a couple days ago and I see them coming out with added intensity on the offesive end to make sure they don't let this one slip through their fingers. Also liking it b/c public seems to be on Under. Possibly think about the first half over 80 1/2.

S-Boom

 

[Nolan Dalla]

Thanks Boom. OVER 80.5 in 1H does seem tempting. Means we win so long as both teams can break 40. Thanks for the feedback -- will probably play OVER for game total, OVER in 1H and if that goes OVER -- a hedge is possible in the 2H with a possible middle. We'll see. Thanks again.

ND

 

[raledet]

Total score

Total score

I don't know if this will affect your judgment or not, but the score between these two teams was 147 and not 167 two nights ago.