Det @ Miami: Heat Factor

[THE HITMAN]

I touched on this subject in Bubba's thread, but I have some time tonite and since these trend #'s are so lopsided, I will post
them and hope they serve some purpose to someone.

Not too much has been mentioned about the possible heat (actually humidity) factor for this 1 PM start. It has been practically impossible for visiting teams to win in Miami in September over the years. It is very difficult to prepare for the humidity factor which is still leftover from the usual muggy summer. Without actually being here for at least a couple of weeks beforehand, there is little that the northern teams can do to prepare for the change. Usually the big linemen are bothered the most. They huff & puff & sweat buckets. Tongues hang out and concentration wanes or disappears. Buffalo's Ted Washington "packed the end of a game in" back in the late 90's. But, it is not limited to linemen.............just ask former
Indianapolis QB Jim Harbaugh about how he couldn't finish up and mailed in the 4th quarter of a close game with the Dolphins back in '97, due to just being heat whupped. You can see it, some of the players just look like they have evolved into slow motion machines by the 4th quarter. And, double pity any player who has had a hearty party on Saturday.........alcohol & the heat are a double whammy. So, anyone interested in a second 1/2 play, take note.
Now for some numbers for Miami , regular season,at home , SU during September:

38-5 all time since 1970, including at the Orange Bowl. 25 of these 43 have been won by more than 7 pts.

20-3 when it is game #1 of the season.

19-1 SU since 1990

15-0 last 15

The NYJ, their nemisis anyway, was the last team to win here in Sept, that was in 1993.

The average victory margin is 14 points.

So, Hitman, whatcha gonna do? Well, I don't like to lay 8 in the pros. I am not a big fan of teasers, (nor am I a big fan of Dolphin's offensive line, yet) but...........I teased Dolphins -2 with U Miami +9 for a good sized play. I teased Miami -2 with OAK/SEA over 34.5. (ten of last 12 between them have been over 43. last year 61 & 52 points)
I will lay some $ @ -8, and I will see what is offered in terms of a 3rd & 4th quarter or second half play. I have no opinion on the total.
GL & Hit A Big One Today..............THE HITMAN

 

[Wolftaz]

I think heat and humidity will play a factor in quite a few games this week. I think Nolan has a write-up concerning the heat and humidity in relation to totals on his picks page.

:shade:

 

[Pujo21]

TOTALS--BEARS/ Vikes----OAK/SEAT

TOTALS--BEARS/ Vikes----OAK/SEAT

Chicago / Minnesota total is 41.

Last Year scores were 17- 10 and 13 -6.
Sunday temp is predicted 90 * for the Bear / Vike game.
_________________________________________

CONVERSELY:

Oakland / Seattle total is 41.

Last Year scores were 38-14 and 34 - 27.

Sunday temp is predicted 70 * for the Oak / Seat game.
____________________________________________

LETS TRY
UNDER CHICAGO / Bears
OVER OAK / Seattle

i might tease these totals with some other teams.
Good Luck

 

[jiwos2m1]

not a big fan of teasers and other exotic bets but you already hit part of it so good luck. when i saw miami -8 it looked fishy (no pun intended) and the number screamed at me to take miami. just goes to show how numbers can be seen so differently by people.

 

[THE HITMAN]

JIWOS..........I dislike teasers also, usually the points don't come into play at all when I do play them. (like U Miami last night). I may play only 3 or 4 per year But, I wanted to get some of my $ off of 8. I don't like to spot more than 7 in the pros and I usually am a little cautious anyway the first week or two of the season, so I did the teasers. The reason the 8 didn't scream at me was the Dolphin's QB spot, which has been quiet this pre season. And, the injured, inconsistent offensive line has yet to prove it self to me, Ricky Williams or no Ricky.
Note:.....1 1/2 hours before kickoff & it is raining on & off near the stadium site.........It will probably cool things off just a little bit if it continues.................A lil rain always will make a good extra ticket available, so I probably will head out & catch a good seat. GL THE HITMAN