Detroit Tiger Season End Fade Report:
- Thread starter yyz
- Start date
TV and YYZ,
I am probably the only person who has actually been betting against the Tigers the last 20 games.
And I took a different angle as well:
Each game I have been betting 1 unit on the runline, moneyline and over.
Theory: As of a few weeks ago, the Tigers had lost 100 or so games and only 11 by one run. Meaning 90% of losses paid on both runline and moneyline. And, if by some chance the Tigers won a game, they'd probably do so as a result of a slugfest. Their bullpen is atrocious and their starting pitching is almost as bad. But they can sometimes hit.
Anyway, nice profit so far and will keep it going throughout the year.
Thanks to both of you.
Good luck,
~Patel
I am probably the only person who has actually been betting against the Tigers the last 20 games.
And I took a different angle as well:
Each game I have been betting 1 unit on the runline, moneyline and over.
Theory: As of a few weeks ago, the Tigers had lost 100 or so games and only 11 by one run. Meaning 90% of losses paid on both runline and moneyline. And, if by some chance the Tigers won a game, they'd probably do so as a result of a slugfest. Their bullpen is atrocious and their starting pitching is almost as bad. But they can sometimes hit.
Anyway, nice profit so far and will keep it going throughout the year.
Thanks to both of you.
Good luck,
~Patel
20-7
+19.10
TUESDAY's play:
KC - 1.5 line should be around yesterday's price.
couldn't post because i was out all day, just got back in.
+19.10
TUESDAY's play:
KC - 1.5 line should be around yesterday's price.
couldn't post because i was out all day, just got back in.
I am back "V" man.............thanks for holding down the fort!
Well......after a 10-0 run, they finally got off the ground!
-135 tonight.
20-8 +17.75
Must bet two units tomorrow!
Well......after a 10-0 run, they finally got off the ground!
-135 tonight.
20-8 +17.75
Must bet two units tomorrow!
It was -140 tonight at 2 units, so the loss was 2.80
20-8 +14.95
Tomorrow, you must play 4 units worth!
20-8 +14.95
Tomorrow, you must play 4 units worth!
yyz said:
This is where I would quit. You lose tomorrow, and you're 20-10 with nothing to show for it.
But what fun is quitting lol so good luck!!
Last edited:
yyz,
This thread was stupid to start with, but now it is really getting inane. Obviously you are not wagering 18 units to win 16 on this game, nor would you ever do such a stupid thing. So why post it on a message board that is supposed to be used for legitimate handicapping information? It is as bad as people who post locks, 20 unit plays, etc. In some ways it is even worse because I can recall you ridiculing those who make similarly rediculous posts numerous times in the past and now you are hypocritically doing the same thing yourself.
Please just quit this stupid thread and become part of the solution rather than the problem. Crap like this is basically information pollution for an otherwise great message forum.
This thread was stupid to start with, but now it is really getting inane. Obviously you are not wagering 18 units to win 16 on this game, nor would you ever do such a stupid thing. So why post it on a message board that is supposed to be used for legitimate handicapping information? It is as bad as people who post locks, 20 unit plays, etc. In some ways it is even worse because I can recall you ridiculing those who make similarly rediculous posts numerous times in the past and now you are hypocritically doing the same thing yourself.
Please just quit this stupid thread and become part of the solution rather than the problem. Crap like this is basically information pollution for an otherwise great message forum.
Nick,
Maybe Jack can re-open your last great thread, and I can be your nominee?
The reason for the thread was clearly stated at the begining. I wanted to track the results, as opposed to saying, "I wonder what would have happened if you bet against them the rest of the year?" This way.....we know.
No, I would not bet this way, or advocate it. Sure, it looks shitty now due to the losing streak, but we still have today and tomorrow to get that money back to the plus mark.
I know that only Anthony Richkas can continue to wager on this thread, but I'm still pulling for him.
So, in closing, this thread is not about "legitimit handicapping information", nor was it ever passed off as that.
Maybe Jack can re-open your last great thread, and I can be your nominee?
The reason for the thread was clearly stated at the begining. I wanted to track the results, as opposed to saying, "I wonder what would have happened if you bet against them the rest of the year?" This way.....we know.
No, I would not bet this way, or advocate it. Sure, it looks shitty now due to the losing streak, but we still have today and tomorrow to get that money back to the plus mark.
I know that only Anthony Richkas can continue to wager on this thread, but I'm still pulling for him.
So, in closing, this thread is not about "legitimit handicapping information", nor was it ever passed off as that.
If it is not handicapping information, then post it in General Discussion. I don't care what type of excuse you come up with or what way you try to deflect criticism by bringing up unrelated things. The bottom line is that this thread is counter productive to quality handicapping.
If it came from a poster who normally posts garbage, I would not say anything and just chalk it up as a normal occurance. Usually you post good information, manage your money well and rightly criticize those who do make counter productive posts. That is why it disappoints me to see you posting something that reads "16 units on Minny -1.5". Think about the folks who haven't read through the whole thread and don't know that you are only doing this as a "what if". Or what about the folks that saw the early success of this half baked idea, hopped on late and now are in danger of losing their asses if they continue to follow. Those are the reasons you should shut this down.
And what a classy move bringing up my erroneously opened thread from the other day. You see, I admitted my mistake in opening up a stupid thread. You continue to defend your mistake.
If it came from a poster who normally posts garbage, I would not say anything and just chalk it up as a normal occurance. Usually you post good information, manage your money well and rightly criticize those who do make counter productive posts. That is why it disappoints me to see you posting something that reads "16 units on Minny -1.5". Think about the folks who haven't read through the whole thread and don't know that you are only doing this as a "what if". Or what about the folks that saw the early success of this half baked idea, hopped on late and now are in danger of losing their asses if they continue to follow. Those are the reasons you should shut this down.
And what a classy move bringing up my erroneously opened thread from the other day. You see, I admitted my mistake in opening up a stupid thread. You continue to defend your mistake.
Nick Douglas said:
You are saying that thread you started was a "mistake"? This thread will not lead to an attack on any forum members, other than me. I can live with that. I didn't start a thread that got shut down due to it's potentially destructive nature.
Look, this thread wasn't veiled in mystery. I was upfront about what the thread was, and it's risk. I firmly believed, and still do, that a person could get +20 units out of this theory if they wanted to take some serious risk. Now, I have the risk of looking like a complete dork, which should joy more people here than just you, Nick. Big deal. I have looked more ridiculous touting "actual" plays here at MJ's, and still manage to log on every day.
By the way........you still have a little time to get 16 units down on -1' -130
20-11 -20.85
Nick.......you might get to slam the piss out of me even harder than yesterday!
Hey, look on the bright side.......this will at least show that there is no "free lunch" out there.
I expect even if someone followed this thread, and bet cash on it, they would have stopped by now. But, keeping in stride with the theory, I must post a 32 unit play today. Ridiculous, of course, but it is the final day.
I don't see a line for the game yet, but I imagine it will be substancial. The best we can hope for, is +15 units, while the down side is a horrendous -40 units I would estimate.
Yes, even the lowly Tigers can piss on my parade! A team that could not beat the runline all season by more than a 4 game stretch, picked the last week of the season to tear it up.
This thread has proven that blindly throwing your money at a theory, is apt to be costly. It has shown that it can not be taken seriously as a way to wager. The law of regression to the mean will always catch up to you. Laying outrageous juice on a tough bet will eat you out of house and home.
Now, had we gotten only one more lousy win, this whole thing would have looked like the the golden goose. I retrospect, this is probably the best thing that could have happened.
I hope no one took this train for a ride, and I doubt anyone did, since there are never any replies stating so. That is good. But, at the same time, we did chart how the "go against Detroit" theory panned out.
Today, they have everything to play for, as they dont wish to be the worst team in baseball's history. That being said:
GO MINNY!
Nick.......you might get to slam the piss out of me even harder than yesterday!
Hey, look on the bright side.......this will at least show that there is no "free lunch" out there.
I expect even if someone followed this thread, and bet cash on it, they would have stopped by now. But, keeping in stride with the theory, I must post a 32 unit play today. Ridiculous, of course, but it is the final day.
I don't see a line for the game yet, but I imagine it will be substancial. The best we can hope for, is +15 units, while the down side is a horrendous -40 units I would estimate.
Yes, even the lowly Tigers can piss on my parade! A team that could not beat the runline all season by more than a 4 game stretch, picked the last week of the season to tear it up.
This thread has proven that blindly throwing your money at a theory, is apt to be costly. It has shown that it can not be taken seriously as a way to wager. The law of regression to the mean will always catch up to you. Laying outrageous juice on a tough bet will eat you out of house and home.
Now, had we gotten only one more lousy win, this whole thing would have looked like the the golden goose. I retrospect, this is probably the best thing that could have happened.
I hope no one took this train for a ride, and I doubt anyone did, since there are never any replies stating so. That is good. But, at the same time, we did chart how the "go against Detroit" theory panned out.
Today, they have everything to play for, as they dont wish to be the worst team in baseball's history. That being said:
GO MINNY!
early line, yyz:
Minnesota Twins K. Lohse -1.5 +114 for 32 units, no doubt.
dude, i'm gonna fade the Tigers next year....any sane capper should, i don't see them getting better, but they should still be a BAD team when maroth and robertson aren't pitching.....
worse comes to worse they make us atleast a +18.00 units profit the whole year based on wagers to get back ONE unit on the moneyline......i will NOT fear the high moneyline next season with these jokers.
they WILL be a profitable fade.....
gl to you.
Minnesota Twins K. Lohse -1.5 +114 for 32 units, no doubt.
dude, i'm gonna fade the Tigers next year....any sane capper should, i don't see them getting better, but they should still be a BAD team when maroth and robertson aren't pitching.....
worse comes to worse they make us atleast a +18.00 units profit the whole year based on wagers to get back ONE unit on the moneyline......i will NOT fear the high moneyline next season with these jokers.
they WILL be a profitable fade.....
gl to you.
ZOINKS!
This could be the team to watch next season!
Whatever.......
Final tally:
20-12 -52.85
The fat lady sang....the mustard is off the hotdog, the roof caved in, the wheels fell off, Elvis has left the building, the sun has set...............
A bad idea comes to rest.
