I've seen the somewhat complex formula for passer rating and understand how it is calculated, but I've never understood QBR. pro-football-reference posts it among the QB metrics and, among other disparities, I've noticed that Patrick Mahomes usually ranks higher by QBR than he will for passer rating, especially the last couple of seasons. I was also alarmed to see--through week 6's slate--that Dillon Gabriel has a passer rating of 81.2 and yet a perfect QBR of 100, for his 2 starts and 2 mop-jobs.
source (expiring barring time freeze or work stoppage):
www.pro-football-reference.com
I didn't think google AI would respond but I got an answer to the obvious(ly stoned) question:
ex: if dillon gabriel has a passer rating of 81.2, and a QBR of 100, is that enough evidence to prove that passer rating is the better metric?
AI Overview
No, a single hypothetical example of a disparity between Dillon Gabriel's passer rating and QBR is not enough evidence to prove one metric is "better" than the other
. The example simply highlights that the two metrics measure different things and use different methodologies. Both have strengths and weaknesses, and the perceived "better" metric often depends on what aspects of quarterback play you prioritize.
Why the ratings can differ so dramatically
The significant difference in your hypothetical ratings is a direct result of how each metric is calculated.
Passer rating
How the hypothetical scenario is possible
In your example, Dillon Gabriel's passer rating is low (81.2), while his QBR is perfect (100). This is only possible if his performance in the game was extremely efficient on high-leverage, contextual plays, while the box-score stats that comprise passer rating were otherwise mediocre.
Conclusion
The example does not prove that passer rating is the better metric; it highlights the core differences in methodology. QBR is designed to be a more comprehensive, context-aware metric, while passer rating is a simpler, historical measure that only evaluates passing plays in a box-score vacuum.
Therefore, whether a rating is "better" depends on whether you prefer a simple, transparent passing metric (passer rating) or a complex, contextual metric that attempts to evaluate the entire quarterback position (QBR).
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Any thoughts on QBR? The evidence is in that Mahomes--for the example up top--is clutch. Maybe we have early signs that Dillon Gabriel is clutch.
wiki rabbit hole same issues:
en.wikipedia.org
Judging each play's difficult & significance sounds like an inexact science.
No formula is offered.
QBR does take into account QB rush yards, which passer rating doesn't, but I'm not sure the weighting.
source (expiring barring time freeze or work stoppage):
2025 NFL Passing | Pro-Football-Reference.com
Check out the 2025 NFL Passing Stats and more on Pro-football-reference.com
www.pro-football-reference.com
I didn't think google AI would respond but I got an answer to the obvious(ly stoned) question:
ex: if dillon gabriel has a passer rating of 81.2, and a QBR of 100, is that enough evidence to prove that passer rating is the better metric?
AI Overview
No, a single hypothetical example of a disparity between Dillon Gabriel's passer rating and QBR is not enough evidence to prove one metric is "better" than the other
. The example simply highlights that the two metrics measure different things and use different methodologies. Both have strengths and weaknesses, and the perceived "better" metric often depends on what aspects of quarterback play you prioritize.
Why the ratings can differ so dramatically
The significant difference in your hypothetical ratings is a direct result of how each metric is calculated.
Passer rating
- Formula: The NFL's official metric since 1973, passer rating is a straightforward formula that uses only five components: completion percentage, yards per attempt, touchdown percentage, and interception percentage.
- Context-agnostic: Passer rating treats all plays equally. A 70-yard touchdown pass is weighted the same, regardless of whether it occurred in the first quarter or garbage time. It also does not distinguish between a 5-yard completion on 2nd-and-3 versus 3rd-and-10.
- Ignores key actions: The formula does not account for a quarterback's rushes, sacks, or fumbles, which are critical elements of their performance.
- Formula: Developed by ESPN in 2011, QBR is a complex, proprietary formula that takes into account a much wider range of factors.
- Context-dependent: A core feature of QBR is its emphasis on the context of each play. It assesses a play's value by measuring its "Expected Points Added" (EPA), a metric that quantifies how much a play impacts a team's win probability.
- Holistic evaluation: QBR includes a quarterback's rushes, scrambles, sacks, fumbles, and quarterback-attributed penalties.
- "Garbage time" is discounted: Plays that occur when the game's outcome is already decided are weighted less heavily.
How the hypothetical scenario is possible
In your example, Dillon Gabriel's passer rating is low (81.2), while his QBR is perfect (100). This is only possible if his performance in the game was extremely efficient on high-leverage, contextual plays, while the box-score stats that comprise passer rating were otherwise mediocre.
- A high QBR would indicate he made valuable plays under pressure, converted critical third downs, and limited mistakes during meaningful moments of the game.
- The low passer rating would come from factors like a lower completion percentage or average yards per attempt, possibly from throws that QBR would appropriately credit to the receiver (for a long run after catch) or blame on the offense (like a low-leverage, short screen pass).
Conclusion
The example does not prove that passer rating is the better metric; it highlights the core differences in methodology. QBR is designed to be a more comprehensive, context-aware metric, while passer rating is a simpler, historical measure that only evaluates passing plays in a box-score vacuum.
Therefore, whether a rating is "better" depends on whether you prefer a simple, transparent passing metric (passer rating) or a complex, contextual metric that attempts to evaluate the entire quarterback position (QBR).
======
Any thoughts on QBR? The evidence is in that Mahomes--for the example up top--is clutch. Maybe we have early signs that Dillon Gabriel is clutch.
wiki rabbit hole same issues:
Passer rating - Wikipedia
Judging each play's difficult & significance sounds like an inexact science.
No formula is offered.
QBR does take into account QB rush yards, which passer rating doesn't, but I'm not sure the weighting.
