Does anyone have ATS records for this round of the playoffs??? If I recall correctly Home Favs have dominated this round in a BIG way.
Thanks...Cie:weed:
Thanks...Cie:weed:
Divional Round ATS Records??
- Thread starter Cie
- Start date
NFL DIVISIONAL PLAYOFF NOTES
by Bruce Marshall,
So much for that trend!
Or is it?
We're talking about what was the long-standing advantage home teams had accumulated in NFL Divisional (Second Round) playoff action. Rationale certainly supported their success, which included a 13-6-1 pointspread mark from 1998-2002. After all, the home teams in the Divisional Round were supposed to represent the cream of the crop in the NFL, the two teams with best records from each conference, right? And with a much-needed "bye" week to refresh & recharge their batteries, it was no wonder the Division Round hosts recorded such a stellar mark against the number.
Until last year, that is, when all four visiting teams covered the spread in Divisional Round action! Two of them (Indianapolis and Carolina) won outright; two of them (Tennessee and Green Bay) came exceedingly close. All of the Divisional Round games last season were decided by 7 points or fewer, too, another departure from recent history that had seen many one-sided results in Divisional Round (and, indeed, all playoff round) action. Time to discard the old theories, then, and start shading the road teams in Divisional Round games?
Not so fast. The dynamics, unique to this playoff round, that helped the home teams record those positive spread marks before last season, are still in place. That "bye" week all home teams enjoy in this round has long been considered of great value, at least since 1990, when the NFL postseason tournament was fundamentally altered, expanding from 10 teams to 12 and giving all Division Round home teams a first-week playoff rest. (From 1978-89, only one Division Round home team per conference was facing a non-rested foe). Almost all of the "powerhouse" NFL teams in recent memory were from that first-round "bye" group, including 43 of the past 52 Super Bowl participants since 1978 (when the first-round "bye" was introduced), and 22 of the last 26 Super Bowl winners.
Overall numbers since 1976 still greatly favor home teams and favorites, usually one and the same in this round (Carolina, getting 3 at home vs. Dallas in 1996, and winning 26-17, is the only Division Round home dog since 1982). Indeed, "intermediate-priced" favorites (laying between 3?-9? points) stand a solid 42-29-1 vs. the line in this round the last 28 postseasons, and home teams still hold a noticeable 61-48-3 pointspread edge that span. Home teams are also 82-30 straight up since 1976; favorites 80-31. And even though we didn't see any blowout results in this round a year ago, keep in mind that 25 of the 40 Division Round games since 1994 have still been decided by double-digit margins, with 6 of the 8 in 2001 & 2002 decided by 14 or more.
So, if there was indeed a lesson to be learned from last year, it's to not to base all playoff analyses on past results. Because, as we've said countless times before, none of these trends are etched in granite.
Following are the pointspread results in various spread categories of NFL Conference Semifinal games since 1976. A "margin of victory" chart for the games since 1976 is included as well. Note that our "charting" begins with the 1976 season. Prior to then, playoff home teams were predetermined in a divisional rotation, as opposed to the better won-loss record.
CATEGORY vs RESULT
Favorites vs. line
59-49-3 (1 pick)
Favorites straight up
80-31
Favored by 0-3 points
5-11-1
Favored by 3?-6? points
22-16-1
Favored by 7-9? points
20-13
Favored by 10-13? points
9-6
Favored by 14 points or more
3-3-1
Home teams straight up
82-30
Home teams vs. spread
61-48-3
Home favorites vs. spread
57-47-3
Home underdogs vs. spread
3-2
Home picks vs. spread
1-0
Over/under (since 1986)
39-33
MARGINS OF VICTORY
1-3 points
25
4-6 points
9
7-10 points
20
11-13 points
5
14 points or more
53
by Bruce Marshall,
So much for that trend!
Or is it?
We're talking about what was the long-standing advantage home teams had accumulated in NFL Divisional (Second Round) playoff action. Rationale certainly supported their success, which included a 13-6-1 pointspread mark from 1998-2002. After all, the home teams in the Divisional Round were supposed to represent the cream of the crop in the NFL, the two teams with best records from each conference, right? And with a much-needed "bye" week to refresh & recharge their batteries, it was no wonder the Division Round hosts recorded such a stellar mark against the number.
Until last year, that is, when all four visiting teams covered the spread in Divisional Round action! Two of them (Indianapolis and Carolina) won outright; two of them (Tennessee and Green Bay) came exceedingly close. All of the Divisional Round games last season were decided by 7 points or fewer, too, another departure from recent history that had seen many one-sided results in Divisional Round (and, indeed, all playoff round) action. Time to discard the old theories, then, and start shading the road teams in Divisional Round games?
Not so fast. The dynamics, unique to this playoff round, that helped the home teams record those positive spread marks before last season, are still in place. That "bye" week all home teams enjoy in this round has long been considered of great value, at least since 1990, when the NFL postseason tournament was fundamentally altered, expanding from 10 teams to 12 and giving all Division Round home teams a first-week playoff rest. (From 1978-89, only one Division Round home team per conference was facing a non-rested foe). Almost all of the "powerhouse" NFL teams in recent memory were from that first-round "bye" group, including 43 of the past 52 Super Bowl participants since 1978 (when the first-round "bye" was introduced), and 22 of the last 26 Super Bowl winners.
Overall numbers since 1976 still greatly favor home teams and favorites, usually one and the same in this round (Carolina, getting 3 at home vs. Dallas in 1996, and winning 26-17, is the only Division Round home dog since 1982). Indeed, "intermediate-priced" favorites (laying between 3?-9? points) stand a solid 42-29-1 vs. the line in this round the last 28 postseasons, and home teams still hold a noticeable 61-48-3 pointspread edge that span. Home teams are also 82-30 straight up since 1976; favorites 80-31. And even though we didn't see any blowout results in this round a year ago, keep in mind that 25 of the 40 Division Round games since 1994 have still been decided by double-digit margins, with 6 of the 8 in 2001 & 2002 decided by 14 or more.
So, if there was indeed a lesson to be learned from last year, it's to not to base all playoff analyses on past results. Because, as we've said countless times before, none of these trends are etched in granite.
Following are the pointspread results in various spread categories of NFL Conference Semifinal games since 1976. A "margin of victory" chart for the games since 1976 is included as well. Note that our "charting" begins with the 1976 season. Prior to then, playoff home teams were predetermined in a divisional rotation, as opposed to the better won-loss record.
CATEGORY vs RESULT
Favorites vs. line
59-49-3 (1 pick)
Favorites straight up
80-31
Favored by 0-3 points
5-11-1
Favored by 3?-6? points
22-16-1
Favored by 7-9? points
20-13
Favored by 10-13? points
9-6
Favored by 14 points or more
3-3-1
Home teams straight up
82-30
Home teams vs. spread
61-48-3
Home favorites vs. spread
57-47-3
Home underdogs vs. spread
3-2
Home picks vs. spread
1-0
Over/under (since 1986)
39-33
MARGINS OF VICTORY
1-3 points
25
4-6 points
9
7-10 points
20
11-13 points
5
14 points or more
53
