Division Series Ravens Report & Plays

[Mr Rattler]

I will be posting at least 2 plays on the game and a few prop bets.

PLAY #1: Ravens/Broncos UNDER 23.5 BIG PLAY


-Wk 15 Bronco v Ravens game was 17-0 at half. It was 10-0 until Flacco's pick 6 late in the half. Only 10 total points were scored offensively.
-Wk 15 was played in 50 degree weather
-Ravens have 5 key defensive players active and healthy that did not play against the Broncos in wk 15: Ray Lewis, Ellerbe, Pollard, McPhee, J Smith.
-Ravens average just over 9 pts a game on the road this season in the 1st half
-SINCE BYE WEEK THE RAVENS HAVE BEEN VERY TOUGH ON DEFENSE IN THE 1st HALF: 1st half defensively for the Ravens: Indy 6 , Cinnci 7 , Giants 7, Broncos 10 defensively , Skins 14 , Steelers 6, Chargers 10, Steelers 7, Raiders 10, Browns 9. (average of 8.5 pts/game)
-At home, Broncos scored an average of 32 points a game this year but averaged only 13 in the 1st half (only 40% of their total points coming in 1st half)
-DENVER'S 1st HALF DEFENSE HAS BEEN EVER BETTER THAN THE RAVENS Average 8.5 points allowed in 1st half this year
-DENVER'S DEFENSE HAS BEEN LIGHTS OUT IN THE 1st HALF LAST 8 GAMES: KC 3, Browns 3, Ravens 0, Raiders 7, Tampa 10, KC 6, Chargers 7, Panthers 7 (Average of 5.4 points/ game)
-Ravens will spread the offense out and run from their blue shoe (1 back, 1 TE, 1 slot, 2 WR) package. The Ravens averaged rushing 2 yrds/carry using the FB package against the Broncos in wk 15. They averaged close to 5 (4.8) when in the spread formation. Ravens plan is to keep Manning cold and off the field. With McKinnie at left tackle, Oher at right tackle and Jah Reed off the field, they will have more success at running than the 1st meeting, thus helping to melt the clock.
-GAME TIME TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TEENS. This not only will hinder the passing game but could severely impact the kicking games, shortening up the FG kicker's range greatly.
-Emotions always run high in playoff games, especially early in the game, advantage for the defense



** Game prediction posted by noon Saturday **

 

[Old School]

GOOD STUFF...:0074

 

[vinnie]

GOOD STUFF...:0074

.............:iagree:

 

[the addict]

.............:iagree:

ME TOO



......................................................... :0057

 

[Mr Rattler]

The Side

The Side



I probably put more effort into this game than any other Ravens game this year. I will try to keep my reasoning for my pick as brief as possible (for me anyways) but I did a lot of digging.

I believe the Ravens have " a chance" to win in Denver. To do so they MUST play a perfect game. Below I will run you throw my thought process throughout the week and why I landed where I did. I do not think this is a game you want to send it in on either side.

Monday, I was absolutely convinced that Denver was winning and winning by enough to cover but not a blow-out. My initial prediction was 26-13. Manning simply owns the Ravens. Why? He is one QB that can out scheme and out think Ray and the defense. To beat the Ravens at full strength, you have to make lightning quick reads or be a really good guesser because the Ravens disguise their defense so well. The Ravens have ZERO answers for Stokley across the middle. That is where this defense is vulnerable and Peyton can wear it out. The other glaring weakness is the corner play of Kerry Williams. He will be completely outmatched against either Decker or Dreessen. He will get help today from Jimmy Smith's return. My thought were the Broncos would be able to punch it in twice and settle for 4-5 FG's. The Raven's biggest defensive asset this year has been their Red Zone play. The Broncos average 32 points scored at home. The Ravens have been playing much better defense and are healthy for the 1st time this year. I felt they could keep the Broncos to 6-8 points under their average. Make no mistake, the Broncos offense lies squarely on Peyton Manning's shoulders. The Ravens WILL contain the Broncos running game today. (These last 2 statements are the most important points in this write-up. I explain later)

On offense, the Ravens are facing a monster Broncos defense with 2 of the best pass rushers in the NFL. Add to that, we all know just how unproductive Joe Flacco and the entire Ravens offense has been on the road this year. However, the Ravens will be much more productive rushing the ball today then they were in wk15. The Ravens will be implementing their "blue shoe" offensive set much more. They spread out the offense and eliminate the full back. It doesn't sound reasonable to take Leach out if you want to be successful on the ground. But the numbers show that against the Broncos in wk 15, the Ravens averaged 2 yards a carry out of the fullback set and close to 5 yards out of the spread set. Reason: Broncos are simply to strong in the box when they see a run formation. The way to run the ball successfully against the Broncos is to spread them out. Now, Flacco will have his problems. He will get pressured all day. He has to eliminate BIG mistakes and be willing to throw the ball away when needed. Flacco will get some deep connections today especially if the rushing game is successful. There will be precious few opportunities and the Ravens must take full advantage of every one they get. I had the Ravens punching the ball into the end zone once and a couple FG's from Tucker, scoring in the low to mid teens.

THE INTANGIBLE FROM HELL (ACTUALLY HOTH)

We all know and realize that Peyton is the man and he is the main reason the Broncos are where they are. Without him, they are not a championship team but still a solid team. Then around Wednesday, the computer models began to agree that the weather would be brutal cold for Saturday's game.

The temperature is going to be mid teens today. Peyton has nerve damage that was repaired with a neck fusion. Obviously everything went well with the surgery. However, the cold weather is going to affect his nerve damage and the strength of his grip in his throwing arm. That is a fact. He is not going look like Tim Tebow's Grandmother but this cold weather WILL HAVE AN EFFECT ON HIS ARM!!! I am actually a bit informed on this matter. My wife was a school teacher that was assaulted 10 years ago. Her right arm nerves were severed. We have seen dozens of nerve doctors over the past 10 years and I have heard the following statement from many of them."AVOID EXPOSURE TO COLD! Your arm will stiffen up and you will noticeably lose strength" And I will tell you that statement is true and affects most people with previous nerve damage.

Peyton's game will be thrown off enough to affect the score of this game. It may not affect the outcome, but I have the game handicapped to be a 10-14 point win for the Broncos, in normal conditions. The Broncos hopes truly rest on his shoulders. This weather will affect him and will help keep the Ravens in the game.


Oh, and remember. Peyton Manning did not have a stellar record in the cold weather WITH A GOOD ARM!



PREDICTION: Broncos 17 Ravens 13

PLAY #2: Ravens +10.5 -135 (I strongly advise to buy points to at least 10 if you have to)

Few props to be posted below shortly:

 

[Mr Rattler]

I do not see the Ravens laying an egg and getting blown out. They are actually playing their best ball of the year and seemed to have found some momentum. Taking the Broncos gave me a very uneasy feeling because of this fact but the X's and O's showed me a 2 score Broncos win.

 

[bigdaddy19]

grabbing straws. The better team with the btter defense= denver whichever way u slice it,let the walloping begin.

 

[vinnie]

Thank You ur write-ups are awesome & I don't even need my reading glasses :142smilie

sorry to hear about the attack on ur wife

 

[Old School]

a lot of work and truly appreciated.

follow both these teams with DVR and Directv..

keeping Denver from 20 points will be nothing short of a miracle as long as the winds remain calm.

thanks again for your input all season long

 

[the addict]

thank you :toast:

 

[Hashish]

You over thought this one. It shows from the length of the write-up. Feel there is some slight homer showing. Good luck.

 

[bigdaddy19]

agreed HASHISH.:scared :00hour :shrug: :shrug: :shrug: :nono: :nono: :0002 opcorn2 :nono:

 

[Scrapman]

better go check broncos schedule before any of you lay your cash on this team

they only beat 2 winning teams that was @ Bengals & beat up Ravens

they lost to 3 others home and away

 

[Mr Rattler]

Props

Props



PROPS: (* indicates Best Bet)


-Any kick returned for a Touchdown +738 WIN

-No TD scored in 1st Qtr +245 LOSS

-Denver 1st pass not complete +185 WIN

-Baltimore 1st pass not complete +140 LOSS

-Denver wins by 1-6 points +415 LOSS

-B Pierce rush yards over 37.5 +115 * LOSS

-D.Pitta pass receptions over 3? -135 * LOSS

- E.Reed intercepts a pass +400 LOSS

- K.Moreno rushing yards under 86? -120 * WIN

-B.Stokely receiving yards over 33? +100 * LOSS

-B.Stokley pass receptions over 3 +115 * PUSH


NET +323

 

[Mr Rattler]

You over thought this one. It shows from the length of the write-up.luck.

I think my longest write up of the year was when I picked the Texans to thrash the Ravens.

 

[the addict]

You over thought this one. It shows from the length of the write-up. Feel there is some slight homer showing. Good luck.

haha coming from the Denver fan :facepalm:

 

[Mr Rattler]

I do think the Ravens lose but 10 points is too many to give a team that has been playing as well as the Ravens have the past 2 "real" games. Do not under estimate this cold weather. It will have an effect on Manning. He is "The Man" but he is still "A Man". Medical science says nerve injuries are greatly affected by the cold.

If he plays around 80% effective, I feel that's enough to get the Ravens inside the number.

Like I said, the Ravens must play a PERFECT GAME to win. Possible, not very likely.

 

[Hashish]

better go check broncos schedule before any of you lay your cash on this team

they only beat 2 winning teams that was @ Bengals & beat up Ravens

they lost to 3 others home and away

I hope all you Ravens backers think about this guy being on your side. I sure as hell am glad he's not on mine. Good luck.

 

[the addict]

I probably put more effort into this game than any other Ravens game this year. I will try to keep my reasoning for my pick as brief as possible (for me anyways) but I did a lot of digging.

I believe the Ravens have " a chance" to win in Denver. To do so they MUST play a perfect game. Below I will run you throw my thought process throughout the week and why I landed where I did. I do not think this is a game you want to send it in on either side.

Monday, I was absolutely convinced that Denver was winning and winning by enough to cover but not a blow-out. My initial prediction was 26-13. Manning simply owns the Ravens. Why? He is one QB that can out scheme and out think Ray and the defense. To beat the Ravens at full strength, you have to make lightning quick reads or be a really good guesser because the Ravens disguise their defense so well. The Ravens have ZERO answers for Stokley across the middle. That is where this defense is vulnerable and Peyton can wear it out. The other glaring weakness is the corner play of Kerry Williams. He will be completely outmatched against either Decker or Dreessen. He will get help today from Jimmy Smith's return. My thought were the Broncos would be able to punch it in twice and settle for 4-5 FG's. The Raven's biggest defensive asset this year has been their Red Zone play. The Broncos average 32 points scored at home. The Ravens have been playing much better defense and are healthy for the 1st time this year. I felt they could keep the Broncos to 6-8 points under their average. Make no mistake, the Broncos offense lies squarely on Peyton Manning's shoulders. The Ravens WILL contain the Broncos running game today. (These last 2 statements are the most important points in this write-up. I explain later)

On offense, the Ravens are facing a monster Broncos defense with 2 of the best pass rushers in the NFL. Add to that, we all know just how unproductive Joe Flacco and the entire Ravens offense has been on the road this year. However, the Ravens will be much more productive rushing the ball today then they were in wk15. The Ravens will be implementing their "blue shoe" offensive set much more. They spread out the offense and eliminate the full back. It doesn't sound reasonable to take Leach out if you want to be successful on the ground. But the numbers show that against the Broncos in wk 15, the Ravens averaged 2 yards a carry out of the fullback set and close to 5 yards out of the spread set. Reason: Broncos are simply to strong in the box when they see a run formation. The way to run the ball successfully against the Broncos is to spread them out. Now, Flacco will have his problems. He will get pressured all day. He has to eliminate BIG mistakes and be willing to throw the ball away when needed. Flacco will get some deep connections today especially if the rushing game is successful. There will be precious few opportunities and the Ravens must take full advantage of every one they get. I had the Ravens punching the ball into the end zone once and a couple FG's from Tucker, scoring in the low to mid teens.

THE INTANGIBLE FROM HELL (ACTUALLY HOTH)

We all know and realize that Peyton is the man and he is the main reason the Broncos are where they are. Without him, they are not a championship team but still a solid team. Then around Wednesday, the computer models began to agree that the weather would be brutal cold for Saturday's game.

The temperature is going to be mid teens today. Peyton has nerve damage that was repaired with a neck fusion. Obviously everything went well with the surgery. However, the cold weather is going to affect his nerve damage and the strength of his grip in his throwing arm. That is a fact. He is not going look like Tim Tebow's Grandmother but this cold weather WILL HAVE AN EFFECT ON HIS ARM!!! I am actually a bit informed on this matter. My wife was a school teacher that was assaulted 10 years ago. Her right arm nerves were severed. We have seen dozens of nerve doctors over the past 10 years and I have heard the following statement from many of them."AVOID EXPOSURE TO COLD! Your arm will stiffen up and you will noticeably lose strength" And I will tell you that statement is true and affects most people with previous nerve damage.

Peyton's game will be thrown off enough to affect the score of this game. It may not affect the outcome, but I have the game handicapped to be a 10-14 point win for the Broncos, in normal conditions. The Broncos hopes truly rest on his shoulders. This weather will affect him and will help keep the Ravens in the game.


Oh, and remember. Peyton Manning did not have a stellar record in the cold weather WITH A GOOD ARM!



PREDICTION: Broncos 17 Ravens 13

PLAY #2: Ravens +10.5 -135 (I strongly advise to buy points to at least 10 if you have to)

Few props to be posted below shortly:

I hope all you Denver backers think about this guy NOT being on your side. I am sure as hell glad he is on mine. Good Luck. :toast:

 

[Mr Rattler]

Here is something that just hit me.

I posted the under for the 1st half. A big reason was because the Broncos are slow starters on offensive. Why is that? Could the reason be that Manning simply needs his arm to warm up as the game goes on? If that is the answer, then you gotta like the Ravens chances more. Manning's arm will NOT warm up today.

If I get time, I will try to research Manning's QBR or completion % in the 1st half vs 2nd half to see if that is the case.

Definitely do not like butting heads with you Hash man. You are a damn good capper. As far as who is on who's side remember...Honey and Shit both attracts flies.




Gotta run, need to service a client (that doesn't sound good).