Patriots - Jets
Patriots - Jets
I'm going to try to cap this game with my brain, not my penis.
That said, let's look into the numbers, and take a peek into some key matchups/how this game will be won. Then, we'll see if there's any value in the point spread.
The Pats come in with a record of 4-3-1 ATS at home. After a Week 9 embarrassment at Cleveland, they have not looked back. They are 7-1 SU against playoff teams...the key???
Coaching - BB has done a masterful job getting a defense that lost starting CB Bodden and DE Warren to IR before the season even started. On the other side of the ball, he traded his starting RB, and got 2 guys off the scrap heap, one who has big play ability (Woodhead) and one who rushed for 1,000 yds (Green-Ellis) in a pass first offense. He also traded future HOFer Randy Moss. They have gone 11-1 since his departure.
Jets are 5-3 ATS on the road. 2-4 SU vs. playoff teams. Last trip to Foxboro, they lost 45-3. The Patriots couldn't have played much better, and the Jets couldn't have played much worse. So, although I feel they are a better team, I think 45-3 this weekend is out of the question.
The Jets do not fear the Patriots.
They do not fear going on the road. They beat Indy on the road, and they will play in Nome, AL and be content.
Mark Sanchez is 0-2 in Foxboro.
Tom Brady is 2-3 in his last 5 playoff games.
A lot of people up here like to dismiss the Jets. Truth be told, they've done more the last 2 years than New England has. All NE has done was got blown out by Jack's Ravens last year. According to folk lore up here, the Jets backed in, then got lucky and got lucky again. Well, up here we watched AFC Championship game from the couch.
These aren't the Jets of Herm Edwards or Rich Kotite.
After the last win, the Patriots said they saw some key matchups they knew they could exploit. Will they find something similar and execute this game plan? If so, this game won't be close.
How will the Jets win?
On Offense: Run the football. They need to establish the run, early and often. What prevented the Indy game from being as close was only executing this plan in the 2nd half. With Wilfork and Gerard Warren on the line, the Pats greatly miss Ty Warren. They have made it through the regular season, but with Mike Wright placed on IR this week, the Pats will most likely look to Kyle Love to start on the line. Love, and another rookie, Brandon Deadrick, have been effective, but can they continue to play well during the playoffs?
Long, sustained drives. Sanchez has come a long way, and will be a good quarterback. I still think he's more of a manager. If he gets into a shootout, he's going to lose. The clock draining drives they had in the Indy game put them in position to win.
On Defense: They must disrupt Brady. The Manning/Brady debate aside, the Jets know they're going up against one of the best. How do you rattle him?
Rush up the middle: Can Pouha an Ellis create enough pressure on the line to allow a LB to freelance and fly in off the end, or via stunt?
The Indy game plan tells a lot of what NY might do defensively on Sunday. Give them the run, or force Manning to make the quick throw off the snap. They were content playing nickel for most of the game. Is Brady better at finding the hot read? I'd say no better or worse than PM, he just may have one more weapon...
How do the Patriots win?
Offense: Early lead. Make it a shootout. If they go up early, and force NY to become a pass first, they will win going away. Once BB makes you one dimensional, it's going to be a long day. They'll need to hit the hot receiver, or find Woodhead out of the backfield. They won't use the run to set up the pass, but do the complete opposite. 4 guys last game had 50+ receiving yards. They'll want to play wide open, and keep the Jets playing from behind.
Defense: Bring the house. Force Sanchez to make bad decisions. The Patriots have Brandon Spikes back from suspension, but will his 4 week hiatus hurt him? They cannot let the run be effective, or they will be drawn into playing NYJ's brand of football, and leave themselves open to an upset.
Rex says Super Bowl or Bust. The Patriots are thinking the same thing. People are giving him a hard time up here for saying that. What is he supposed to say; "Just happy to be here?"
I admire his bravado. A lot of people call him a blow hard. Truth be told, he coached circles around Jim Caldwell, who's sideline antics remind of Weekend at Bernies.
Is 8.5 too high? After a win AT Indy, to me they are looking for Jets money. The line opened at 9, and has moved off one of gambling's magic numbers. It's a lot of points for a divisional matchup/rivalry.
The Patriots haven't lost at home since last year vs. the Ravens. I think they have the upper hand, and I'll lay the points. 31-10 New England.
