I think what we're addressing here is a psychological effect once the units get big. Let's say we have a 1 unit parlay to win 40 units. I don't care how many events are involved -- let's just use 1 unit to win 40 units and assume the last event starts after all other events have won.
Ok, so what's really happened right before the last game? You've now 'won' roughly 20 units and are letting it all ride on this last event. I'm excluding vig here to make it easier, but in reality, it's the extra vig that hedging costs that results in value being sacrificed.
Ok, so now here you go. Let the 20 units ride on one play? This is where the pshycological effect hits and people get scared....so they hedge. Well, the bettor should have considered this scenario in the first place if he knew he would be scared out of it later on.
My whole point is, the value lost is allowing the book to book bets on opposite sides at -180 and +160. If ageecee could have found -150 later on instead of -180, then he would have had a 10 cent scalp and you wouldn't see me harping on value lost. I still would have wondered why he bothered to include the last play in the first place, but at least he wouldn't be sacrificing value. In fact, he would gain a little more with the 10 cent scalp.
Ok, so what's really happened right before the last game? You've now 'won' roughly 20 units and are letting it all ride on this last event. I'm excluding vig here to make it easier, but in reality, it's the extra vig that hedging costs that results in value being sacrificed.
Ok, so now here you go. Let the 20 units ride on one play? This is where the pshycological effect hits and people get scared....so they hedge. Well, the bettor should have considered this scenario in the first place if he knew he would be scared out of it later on.
My whole point is, the value lost is allowing the book to book bets on opposite sides at -180 and +160. If ageecee could have found -150 later on instead of -180, then he would have had a 10 cent scalp and you wouldn't see me harping on value lost. I still would have wondered why he bothered to include the last play in the first place, but at least he wouldn't be sacrificing value. In fact, he would gain a little more with the 10 cent scalp.
