You are definately right about MNF games leading to overs. Big venue, nationally televised game and offenses and big plays always seem dominate on Monday nites. I think the Colts D is improved with a few key acquistions and Dungy's Defensive attitude, but I dont think they are a great Defensive team by any stretch of the imagination. They have been beat up a couple of times this year by good hard running backs and I think Bettis qualifies as one too. Pitt also has a good offensive line which will overpower Indy's D-Line. With Indy having to stack the line to prevent the run Maddox will be able to execute the play action and with little pressure and good receivers in Burress, Ward and Randle-El he should have a good day. Not to mention Walt "Toast" Harris will helplessly on the coverage (Im a big Bears fan and have seen Harris get burned far too many times especially play action).
As for the other side of the ball. New England opened a can of worms on the Steelers the first Monday nite. I figured Cowher would have made an adjustment with his highly athletic defense. Then the next week Oakland does the same thing by spreading the field and running a no huddle quick look passing offense. The truth is, Pitt has an extremely large and physical defense which may be great to stop the run. However they lack speed and good pass defenders especially at the linebacker position, which is why the quick slant and screens and swing passes work well against them. I think Manning will be smart enough to recognize these weakness and exploit them.
The game should be very close, I see a high scoring game with the final difference of 3 points thats why I have a small play on Indy plus 4.5.
Good luck to all