Ok, I'm pretty new to this site, but there seems to be some great minds here, so I wanna add to these discussions a little. Anyone who bets every week, and we all do, lets be honest with ourselves, can realize the sudden spike in NFL lines this week. It is Week 9, second half of the season will be upon us before we know it, like my law school finals too, and 'all of a sudden' there are 8, 9, 10 point spreads everywhere. Obviously every week presents different matchups and opportunities for Vegas to stump us but this week features, on average, the highest spreads so far this season. Sure there are lots of reasons for this, mainly there are some crappy squads hittin the road this weekend (ARI, MIN). Then theres some crappy, banged up squads hitting the road (GB, BAL). Then theres some good home teams who are tough to predict on the road who are playing on enemy soil (BUF, PHI, KC). The point is, we all know how sports work, and at LEAST one of the teams i mentioned above will win tomorrow. Heck, I'm going to go out on a limb and say that 2 of those teams WILL win tomorrow. So right now you're thinking, great analysis, you've just wasted 45 seconds of my life. Please read on
That leaves you with a few alternatives. You can say screw the NFL and hit college hard, betting on first quarter overs, and surviving blocked extra points to cover 13.5 point totals(TEX game haha). You could avoid the larger NFL spreads and bet on prime time quality matchups like the texans and browns. If that one doesnt interest you theres always the playoff preview Lions/Bears. Or, you could grab life by the stones and say bring on the 10 point NFL spreads.
Now if you gamble the way I do, and you probably do, you like teasers and parlays. Now theres one problem with teasing large spreads like the games I mentioned at first. Simply put, some of those games are going to be decided by 4 TD's while at least one of those road dogs is gonna pull off the unthinkable. Do the math. 6, 7, 10 point teasers on large spreads can leave you with your thumb up your arse if you tease the wrong favorite. This is why I am thinking outside the bun and playing all straight up games tomorrow. Minimize risk. If one or two of those road dogs pull it out, fine. But I'm not gonna watch my 5 team parlay where i laid 100 bucks to win over a grand get kicked in the nuts by brett farve and a miracle comeback tomorrow afternoon.
Also, remember the books want business on both sides. They dont make money by posting PITTSBURGH -3 at home against the Ravens without half their defense. Thats why we're seeing so many high lines this week. That does not mean theres gonna be alot of blowouts this weekend, it just means SOMEONE has to bet on the cardinals and the 49ers or else the books will get screwed. But nobody will take these teams w/o getting some points, remember that. That being said....
TB -11 When a good defense gets the playbook of a TERRIBLE offense, it doesnt matter if you are on the road or not(Thanks, TR)
NYG -2.5 After I whined about big spreads for ten minutes you can see why I like this one. Giants need a win, Skins are good but will show their inconsistency tomorrow, particulary on offense.
SD -6 I had my doubts about KC going into Miami and I really have my doubts going against a much better Charger squad.
GB +9 Lets face it, as much as none of us wanna admit it, the cat's outta the bag. We all know the Bengals are good this year, but the money was to be made when they were facing 3 point lines against scrubs like the Bears(no offense i'm from south Jersey and I'm an Eagles fan). They couldnt cover 9 against the lowly Texans, and they wont cover 9 tomorrow.
MIGHT, do a 7pt teaser, ARI +16.5 and NE -3,b/c I can easily see Parcells being the guy scratching his head tomorrow night wondering how he lost at home to the cardinals. He'll probably blame that secondary that got trampled by the 49ers, yes the 49ers. The cardinals have two receivers that could give any coach a headache. That being said, the Boys could roll at home by 2 TD's OR maybe ARI gives us a shock, either way I wouldnt be surprised, hence the TEASER.
Always lose with my heart, but my heart says Eagles +165, so if I'm doing well I"ll prob lay a couple hundred on that too. I'm an ND alum and betting on ND this season is teaching me that betting with your heart is NOT always a bad idea. good night all, and more importantly, GOOD LUCK
That leaves you with a few alternatives. You can say screw the NFL and hit college hard, betting on first quarter overs, and surviving blocked extra points to cover 13.5 point totals(TEX game haha). You could avoid the larger NFL spreads and bet on prime time quality matchups like the texans and browns. If that one doesnt interest you theres always the playoff preview Lions/Bears. Or, you could grab life by the stones and say bring on the 10 point NFL spreads.
Now if you gamble the way I do, and you probably do, you like teasers and parlays. Now theres one problem with teasing large spreads like the games I mentioned at first. Simply put, some of those games are going to be decided by 4 TD's while at least one of those road dogs is gonna pull off the unthinkable. Do the math. 6, 7, 10 point teasers on large spreads can leave you with your thumb up your arse if you tease the wrong favorite. This is why I am thinking outside the bun and playing all straight up games tomorrow. Minimize risk. If one or two of those road dogs pull it out, fine. But I'm not gonna watch my 5 team parlay where i laid 100 bucks to win over a grand get kicked in the nuts by brett farve and a miracle comeback tomorrow afternoon.
Also, remember the books want business on both sides. They dont make money by posting PITTSBURGH -3 at home against the Ravens without half their defense. Thats why we're seeing so many high lines this week. That does not mean theres gonna be alot of blowouts this weekend, it just means SOMEONE has to bet on the cardinals and the 49ers or else the books will get screwed. But nobody will take these teams w/o getting some points, remember that. That being said....
TB -11 When a good defense gets the playbook of a TERRIBLE offense, it doesnt matter if you are on the road or not(Thanks, TR)
NYG -2.5 After I whined about big spreads for ten minutes you can see why I like this one. Giants need a win, Skins are good but will show their inconsistency tomorrow, particulary on offense.
SD -6 I had my doubts about KC going into Miami and I really have my doubts going against a much better Charger squad.
GB +9 Lets face it, as much as none of us wanna admit it, the cat's outta the bag. We all know the Bengals are good this year, but the money was to be made when they were facing 3 point lines against scrubs like the Bears(no offense i'm from south Jersey and I'm an Eagles fan). They couldnt cover 9 against the lowly Texans, and they wont cover 9 tomorrow.
MIGHT, do a 7pt teaser, ARI +16.5 and NE -3,b/c I can easily see Parcells being the guy scratching his head tomorrow night wondering how he lost at home to the cardinals. He'll probably blame that secondary that got trampled by the 49ers, yes the 49ers. The cardinals have two receivers that could give any coach a headache. That being said, the Boys could roll at home by 2 TD's OR maybe ARI gives us a shock, either way I wouldnt be surprised, hence the TEASER.
Always lose with my heart, but my heart says Eagles +165, so if I'm doing well I"ll prob lay a couple hundred on that too. I'm an ND alum and betting on ND this season is teaching me that betting with your heart is NOT always a bad idea. good night all, and more importantly, GOOD LUCK
