DOGS THU 07/05

Riskbreaker

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Jul 19, 2002
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krautland
MLB 2007
96-113-8 +10.43 units
all bets risking (or to win) 1 unit
listed pitchers at time of bet must start

BALTIMORE +104
ATLANTA +125

DETROIT RL -1.5 +188

:shade:
 

EXTRAPOLATER

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Feb 22, 2001
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I see what you were talking about Riskbreaker.
Nice results despite the losing record.

Lots of smart 'cappers seem to lay off the heavier favorites.
I like my dogs too, when they come in, but you could call me a sucker for the heavier favorites, I suppose; if I figure that I have a 70% probability to take a side then I won't mind laying, say, -150 (break-even mark of 60%).

I don't know if it's different strokes for different folks or if I'm just out to lunch. I'm sticking with what has worked for me in the past. I am up on the season but every time I miss a heavy juicer I get pretty t'eed off.

One project I have is to assess just how I've been doing on my heavy juice for the season; I want to go back and check every play at greater than -150 to see just how I'm doing there. I should do it soon as, like by the all-star break. If I find that they're not making money for me--which wouldn't surpirse me, to tell you the truth--then I'm probably going to try and stick with lines at -150 or better.

Just curious...what's the most juice you will pay? Or do you stick to all dog plays?

Thanks for the response to my thread and
GL

:SIB
 
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Riskbreaker

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i try to pay no juice at all. if i really like a fav i'll go with the runline in american league games (e.g. detroit today) or i parlay them.

i softened up a bit on that no juice rule over the years. when i started i didnt even look at favs, just played dogs...
 

EXTRAPOLATER

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The bottom line is the +/- record.

17 games under .500 and you're still turning a profit.

Put me 17 games under .500 and I'll be done, undoubtedly.

I'll play the the dog here or there, if I think they'll win (obviously), but generally I'm looking for the highest probabilities that I can find, as long as the line presents some value.
(so please ask me why I play parlays...EVER...)

I'm glad it's working for you.
Keep up the good work.

I've actually got the Orioles as a system call today; good chance to take another today.
Braves game seems a coin-toss to me, though my system thinks the Dodgers have the edge; 'course...it also called the Dodgers to win yesterday...which they didn't.

Keep it rockin'.
GL

:SIB
 
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